knife edge1 Apr 2023 11:41
Sorry Nissan but your uber positive posts are well wide of the mark here imho
Make no mistake, this IS death spiral financing and, whilst the terms are not too onerous, Riverfort will have already had their pound of flesh since January and will now want more. They will care not one jot if GDR survives or not. Since January there has been massive buying of shares and more recently massive selling of shares. Do you really think that's all been down to pis? No, I think it's down Riverfort and this deal will have been several months in the planning and they're already now on a free run with GDR. Budd said they tried to do a traditional placing and couldn't manage it.
I'm scratching my head when I read posters thanking Budd. He has put GDR on more of a knife edge than ever! FDA news, as stated in the RNS, is clearly some way off so quoting the market figures for that are pointless for now. GDR needs revenue FAST. Think about what happens if the sp drops to say 20p. Do people here think Riverfort then lose out? I'm afraid not. The terms can change according the 5 day VWAP and mda and numerous other factors, all of which are in Riverfort's favour . Once you get under the surface it makes for extremely uncomfortable reading.
Everything now depends on selling and this is why I'm feeling pretty miserable. GDR had Beckman Coulter as a distributor for the COVID PoC kit. They sold nothing. Distributors are all well and good but unless there are announcements of sales this week then the sp is going to slide, not go up. GDR have NO track record of being able to sell anything.
Nissan you keep quoting figures the GDR sp managed when the pandemic was in full flow. Those crazy spikes happened because there were hundreds of millions of people that could have taken the GDR test, not just once a year but perhaps several times a month. FDA rejected it and our various distributors couldn't sell any meaningful numbers - £50k in 6 months was the best they managed.
AIHL has a potential market in the UK of £8m per year. That's IF and only if every single newborn taken into special neo-natal care units takes the test. To get to that scenario could take years. NICE did not recommend BEST PRACTISE. Without the US market the global figures total about £70m per year so let's be conservative and say GDR achieve 25% sales of that. That would suffice but they would need to achieve those sales fast in order to provide support to the sp this very week.
The market and pros are no fools and will know this is hugely risky now, more so than ever. Budd, unless he knows full well he has sales contracts to announce next week, has stitched lths up here well and truly. Not deliberately of course but, due to woeful performance in the commercial arena to date, there is simply no confidence from any other possible funding avenues.
The RNS was released after hours on a Friday. Why? Think I know now.