RE: 150k chunky buy should set new support level @14p4 Aug 2023 13:18
I'm really not sure why or how people don't understand what's going on with RF and how they are going to make the most money out of GDR.
Step 1 - sell their initial tranche of 6.5m shares for as much as they can. If they don't make back their £2m for those shares then GDR need to issue new ones to make up the shortfall.
Step 2 apply for new issue of shares to make up for that shortfall at the lowest possible price (8% discount to the 10 day VWAP - tks for that jimi.
Therefore whilst RF still need to dump the sp will attempt to stay as high as poss but we've now got poor liquidity and also no news at all, both of which Budd said he hoped would be ongoing/forthcoming. So the sp is struggling badly.
Once RF are thinking of applying for new shares they will want to see the sp drop as low as possible and will doubtless have numerous brokers they can work with to manoeuvre it down for the 10 days needed. This is when I think we will see the sp drop below 10p. New shares distributed to RF and what will they want? Oh yes, the sp to climb as high as possible.
NICE are due to give out news on the stroke marker test mid December so I think, as we witnessed earlier this year with AIHL, we will start to see a turn in the sp about 10 weeks before that news is due. This will hopefully be a sustained and strong rise helped on its way by RF's various brokers. It may well go higher than we saw in March. At some point in December just as news lands I think RF will dump heavily, surprising everyone that the sp is yet again dropping on good news. Once RF are out the sp should finally recover once and for all. That's all in the next 6 months. It's also all conjecture but given GDR and David Budd's performance historically I think there's no reason to believe it won't go that way.