RE: A Reminder5 Aug 2023 11:26
Not sure. AIHL tests cost about £80 each but more pertinent is how much profit is there after the cost of producing it. Have a vague memory of CYP2C19 tests costing a over £100 each though but cd be wrong. The numbers certainly add up and make for exciting reading but the stressful part in being a GDR share holder is knowing there’s a CEO who doesn’t have the requisite skills or experience to put these tests on the shelves in the US or the EU yet. CYP2C19 still needs registration mark to be sold even in the UK before NICE evaluate it in the autumn.
Stress levels reduced for me by selling out once we hit 15p. I’m keeping a very close eye on things though as I definitely see this turning at some point but not yet. Budd has failed to deliver any news since March and liquidity has dropped through the floor compared to the first 3 months of this year and GDR is now at the mercy of a death spiral finance deal. Circs have conspired against Budd - realisation that GDR have not been selected for quick access to sell in the US by FDA (we were going to get by end of July if it was news) and DEVOTE funding info will only be announced if the sums are ‘deemed significant’ - but things can easily change.
Just my view but RF are now covered with this latest 3m shares were the sp to pop anytime soon on sudden good news. More worryingly in the short term they won’t be bothered by the sp dropping further eg c10p because they will then be able to apply for another allotment of shares at that lower price, which they will be able to sell at a later date without having any restrictions on them. They will also at some point want to redeem a vast number of warrants they are entitled to.
I feel GDR will come good eventually, in spite of the CEO rather than because of him, but it’s going to take longer than expected. End of 2024 UK sales of AIHL will hopefully amount to enough to cover half the company annual costs.
One final thing to remind people of is the statement in the March RNS and that is that the company doesn’t currently plan to increase its monthly costs…. Strikes me that this covered then to announce further costs to cover an application to FDA in the US if they have to go the expensive route ie $2m, which imo they now know they have to.
Idle musings.