RE: With good news, which I expect, the sp should be North of 3p by20 Jul 2025 10:25
Always see a lot of sense and reasonable sentiment in your posts bighammer but I’ll just add another note of caution to short term expectations.
Namely, on how much cash is left and how much they might need to raise to cover their costs until a cash positive position is reached. My own thoughts mirrored yours, roughly £3m to £4m required. However, in light of every single timeline in the last few years being missed by several months, and if Jimi’s NICE comm is to be believed, then there has yet again been a long delay in reaching the next steps. So, Gino himself said ‘any time now’ in late June but it turns out it’s about 6 or 7 weeks after that. That means the National rollout if confirmed won’t be able to start until mid autumn and thus serious levels of revenue are postponed until when? I would opine that with the latest delay, GDR running out of money is unfortunately going to be the issue that takes centre stage. My personal preference would be a straightforward bank loan, no CLNs with death spiral outfits such as Cheek got us involved with (Riverfort) and no massive equity issues - which would require share holder approval. £3m to £4m may now not be enough to get the company to the promised land of being cash positive because I think the latest delay means revenue etc will all be pushed back to FY2027 H1. Means we need about £6m to get us to end of July 2027. Being generous and optimistic let’s say GdR can one way or another earn £2m of that, leaving £4m required. GDR then needs more funds to submit the FDA application and revenue for at least a couple of months in case of any more delays in reaching milestones. So, I think £5m to £6m is needed.
Ultimately, and regrettably, I think Gino and Russ have shown they do not have anything like the business acumen their salaries could justify and so are unlikely to achieve any satisfactory solution to the financial issues.
Likely outcome now, thanks to yet more NHS and NICE delays, GDR pushed into a corner to accept a lowball takeover bid. It won’t help Gino and Russ to save their own jobs if they let the company fall into administration as any players can then pay peanuts for the IP and put in place their own senior mngt teams who will be far more skilled and tightly controlled by their new owners. I’m hoping and praying that as soon as the National rollout is confirmed GDR share holders will reap the benefits of a takeover at something like 6 or 7p a share. Buyout price of about £35m - £40m. Would be peanuts for GSK, AZ or the like. They would easily manage the FDA applications and get both tests sold globally and achieve the potential income Gino spoke of recently. It would be a killing for them for £40m. Long term share holders might be hacked off but imho the offer of 6p a share versus the possibility of Gino and Russ f…ing this up completely (highly probable) and ending up with nothing, would be hard to resist. That’s my wish for the final outco