The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Would be nice if they got the SP correct .They had 3 prices to choose from: the rise on expectation (Up 39%), the manufactured drop (down 20%, in fact it went lower) and the end of day price (+3%). Asleepinthe armchair might be a more appropriate domain.
Today we saw massive price manipulation (yes, I kjnow its AIM). The RNS was not bad news, quite the opposite yet we swung from +39% to -25%. By lunchtime the price was blue again despite the best efforts of the MMs to keep it down. Then through the course of the afternoon they did their best again to drag it into the red. But failed. There is significant buying pressure yet the MM's are determined to suppress the SP - the delayed trades give the game away. They want it low because it keeps it in their domain. As soon as we break out of the 1-2p range we become interesting and viable to the bigger players at which point the MM's lose control of their toy. Set your limit sells, hang on to those shares and get ready for the rise. Todays news was just the first to come out of a bulging pipeline. It raises our profile yet gain and in another potentially huge market. GLA
Well, well, well, suddenly its all a 'pile of poo' because we got a grant but the SP hasn't skyrocketed. The LTH's will ride this out as usual and no doubt the de-rampers will gloat over the fact that we are only 100% up over where we were a few weeks back. Just waiting for the cws to start talking about a consolidation and a placing. Meanwhile back at camp reality its a bigger grant than I expected and the next news will probably be about 737. Hardly a bad place to be!
Interesting video for the Novartis Q3 2020 finincials. Attention brought to the fact that Covid is preventing/delaying treatment of non-communicable diseases. We have a burgeoning pipeline worldwide of people needing treatments for cancer etc. On top of this we have stupid headlines from the likes of Sky saying that herd immunity is unacahievable because the antibodies decline after the infection recedes. Within the article (ie mainly towards the bottom where the average reader never ventures) there is admission that the latest survey doesn't take into account the reasearch on 'stored responses to viruses' where the immune system remembers viruses it has responded to. Then there's the fact that they're not sure they are testing for all the antibodies.... As Novartis say, there may never be a vaccine for Covid that covers all mutations. Maybe better to look at therapeutics.... GLA Hope everyone is enjoying the ride!
Excellent find Num4! For those concerned that a P1 would take forever its there in black and white that we could make P2 in 2021. Personally I think we'll licence well before then. With so much in the pipeline my gin stocks could take a hammering over the next few weeks. Might have to ask Thoth for some of his....
With the recent rises I do get the impression that the MM's are losing control. Desperate attempts to suppress the rises are having less and less success. On a personal level its almost like Xmas but I'm not sure when its Xmas Eve! Tonight? Thursday Night? Each day without a RNS results in even less sleep that night. Time to right another lettert to Santa and will I be an insomniac by the end of the week? GLA
Much has been written over the years as to what the SP should be and what it could be. IMHO the key issue is what investors are prepared to pay for it and that is all based upon speculation and anticipation. Some have chosen to ridicule what they see as excessive, wildly ambitious figures – 10p, 20p, 28p £1, £4 etc. Most of those figures have been heavily caveated although the pessimists conveniently choose to ignore the caveats. History is an interesting record of those with ambition and those who fell by the wayside. The Pharma sector has an average P/E ratio of 24:1. Quite high compared with others. However, what is more important is the variation within a sector. Back in the 80’s when The Body Shop was in full flight and the only retailer and manufacturer of cosmetics not tested on animals the P/E for that plc was over 300:1. In the early 00’s Bezos poured every penny of profit back into Amazon yet the P/E was 3732.43. Even now the Amazon P/E is above 100. The SP for many is based on potential rather than a cold analysis of current assets. SAR has huge potential – a multi product pipeline with assets approaching key news events. Who is to say that we can’t multi bag several times over? Once above 3p we will no longer be a toy for the MM’s to play with. Once above 20p and the MM’s will be our toy to play with. GLA
Just wondering, given the emerging picture on selectivity for inhibiting the cytokine storm, might Roche be running their slide rule over us? I know they have Genentech on board but when I listened in on their last results presentation I was impressed by their measured approach to Covid. Our selectivity might interest them....
Lets not take our eye off the ball. The FDA have approved Remdesivir for Covid. News has to be imminent on the grant and the amount is irrelevent. If we get the grant then we knock on the door of Gilead - VERY LOUDLY!
With more and more data emerging, getting a grant now must put us in sweet spot when it comes to designing poc research. I just hope it doesn't distract from the overall 1801 schedule. Would be nice if it actually accelerated the timelines!!!
Managing the cytokine storm is not straightforward and it's not just a question of having a TYK2 inhibitor. Your inhibitor has to be selective. Note the last line in the section before the conclusion in this article from June 2020:
https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/508247
' specific inhibition and no interference with other JAKs remain to be clarified'. On this basis we could require a bit of tweeking. However, Tofa et al will require more than tweeking due to the black box warnings, which we don't have. It might also explain why the generation 1 TYK's haven't been rushed into the clinic.