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Hi Thoth - very interesting read. I noted that they are now going for an inhaled version of Remdesivir which could be a lot more effective. Combined with our oral TYK2 could be a game changer for both companies. Also interesting that despite the WHO they still think it has value. As we know from 737, the design of the trial will be critical. GLA

Fearg - You are quite right. A lot of the trials underway were designed well before we knew much about the virus. In my opinion the way forward will involve combos as the virus mutates, people respond differently etc. Forget the silver bullet miracle cure its an armoury of options we need. 1801 could be just one of those options so getting a grant will be one of the first steps. The key factor as I've stated before is to get the science underway and engage with a big partner.

In reply to an earlier statement I can't see how the grant is already priced in. The current price doesn't even value the current assets correctly. As I said earlier today, using Kazia Therapeutics as a benchmark, we should already be at 1.77p on just the pre-clinicals . As soon as 1801 goes in the clinic its a major hike, with 737 already in the clinic we're due a hike, another in January with FLT3 and then there's 1802 hot on the heels of 1801. The Covid grant is most definitely not priced in given the current price. For me the value of the grant is not the issue, its getting on the fast track and raising awareness for a rapidly developing high value asset. I'd be happy for 50k just to be able to knock on the door of Gilead and say 'look at this, lupus, cancer and covid, no toxicity and an extended patent. Get in now or join the queue'. GLA

aa - I wouldn't deny anyone who bought in at 0.4 their profit but I do think that Thoth is right and we'll be nearer 5p by Xmas.

I like the final paragraph, that the Solidarity Trial might be expanded to include immunomodulators. Get the grant, grab a partner (Gilead?) and get on the trial. Simples.

A very interesting article today - https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/931987/kazia-therapeutics-has-a-laser-like-focus-on-adding-value-corporate-connect-research-931987.html
Interesting because of the valuation. Based on the current valuation of Kazia Therapeutics and allowing for the fact that they are already in the clinic, the equivalent SP for SAR would be around 1.77p based on just one indication. Get into the clinic (which we are told we will do with 1801 and hopefully shortly followed by 1802) then we have the potential to go for 5 major indications (as opposed to Kazia's 2 relatively small ones ) and the target price for Kazia converted to a SAR equivalent gives us a target price of 36p and that's without Covid, 737 and FLT3. Bear in mind that this is a target price but it does demonstrate the potential. What is clear is that we should be nearer 2p currently with big expectations for 2021. Message to Tim - the market will not come to you. You have to market the company. Currently the SP is just about where it was in 2016 but there are now a lot more shares in circulation. Lets get the message out and deliver some shareholder value over the next few weeks. GLA

I'm expecting a modest amount but the key thing is to get the grant and the opportunities it opens up.

Hi Thoth - have sent you an email. Check your spam folder? Rgds.

Looks like Gilead are in need of some pipeline additions. Filgotinib rejected by FDA on toxicity isses and now Galapagos' ADAMTS-5 inhibitor has failed. Time for them to look elsewhere?
https://endpts.com/gilead-feels-the-heat-as-close-ally-galapagos-reports-a-big-setback-on-one-of-their-top-experimental-drugs/

Latest findings from Southampton University suggest that it may be possible to target those most at risk of 'cytokine storm hyperinflammation'.
https://scienmag.com/blood-test-could-identify-covid-19-patients-at-risk-of-cytokine-storm-hyperinflammation/
Worth noting the cytokines targeted - IL-6, IL-8, TNF, IL-1B and IL-33. Something to keep in mind if we get a grant and progress rapidly to trials.....

Hi Potnak. 20p is a price now. If everything got to market then north of £5....

While the apprentice MM piddles about with the SP I've been looking at the potential for a TYK2 based covid treatment. Currently the market size for Covid in terms of cases and deaths is larger than Lupus. There is also a discrepency in terms of Lupus treatment costs in the US (where 30% of cases are diagnosed) and the RoW. The Lupus treatment market is currently worth $2.3bn. Add in the Covid element and the combined Lupus and current Covid market is potentially worth $5.52bn. Based on where we are with TYK2 (not even pre-clinical for Covid) then the risk factor is very high and I would estimate that the speculative value is no more than 5% of the potential (based on a TYK2 type treatment taking a 15% market share). As of today the value on the SP would be 1.04p. At current prices this means that TYK2 (auto and cancer), 737 and Aurora against their historic indications have a value of 0.24p. We are clearly underpriced. The value (speculative because this is AIM) is that with the Covid 'potential' we should currently be priced at around 2p. Should we receive the grant then the risk factor decreases slightly and the SP should rise to 3.5-4p. Fast track to clinical and the SP hits 5-6p just on the Covid/Lupus indications. My previous valuations for an exit said that the bidding should start at 16p. I'm now revising this to 20p. However, the exit is complicated and I'm now wondering if it requires some creative thought by the BoD in terms of a price to buy out the rights (rather than just a licence) and a vehicle to provide shareholders with a % of the long term gains should they materialise. In the short term the SP is underpriced so its a buying opportunity for those that can see the value and understand the risks involved. GLA LTH.

It wouldn’t surprise me if a certain company that makes Remdesivir isn’t already aware of our TYK2 and should we get the grant we become a lot more attractive.

Another trial for a Covid treatment has just hit the buffers with safety concerns. It’s not just the vaccines that are failing to make the grade. How timely is it that our TYK2 has had the ‘nice’ problem of not reaching a toxicity level that kills the recipient(mouse in this case).

J&J just suspended their vaccine trials - unexplained event. Harvard Epidemiology Professor gone public on the need to learn to live with the virus. Therapeutics will become more and more important over the next 6-12 months. Can only be good for SAR. End of the month news on a grant is the next tipping point. I get the distinct impression that the SAR train has finally left the station.
PS Where has MetalMickey gone? He only signed up today and seems to have disappeared already?? Can only be good news when the CW's arrive.

HI Baton, Slightly bemused by the sudden rise but I think the genie might be out of the bottle. Getting the patent sorted last week was a key element in getting the TYK2 data pack sorted in readiness of licencing. The only thing outstanding now is MTD and then its ready to go. At this stage we could still be 3 months away from a licence as the lawyers go through DD. However, the Covid grant could really accelerate things, especially if we can get a high profile partner. I suspect we won't get news on the grant until the end of the month but at that point its the approval rather than the amount which is important. Meanwhile we have SRA737 sitting in the wings and I'm thinking that Stephen Dilly is working on a way to take it forward without paying the full wack upfront. I'm not suggesting we won't get paid but timelines and amounts could well be under discussion. I am convinced he wants to keep it. Unfortunately that we're not in the driving seat on this one. Meanwhile our friends in China are silent on Aurora which I interpret as a good sign. If it was going badly I think we might have heard by now. As to valuations, I'm still pondering some of the recent implications etc not least the fact that the powers that be are looking more and more to therapeutics instead of the holy grail vaccine. So far I've seen nothing to undermine my previous valuations. The upside is more difficult, but I'm working on it..... GLA

This really is great news! Note that it 'completes' the patent protection for 1802. A major part of the data pack for licencing is now in place. In addition the new patent extends the life of the product in a highly lucrative market. Potentially doubles the value of 1802. More news please!!!

The next quarterly update from Sierra is due around 5th November. With the SP in the doldrums Stephen Dilly needs to announce some good news. On this basis I'm not expecting any update on 737 until then which means all eyes on the Covid grant as the October news for Sar. Will Tim wait until the Full Year results are announced??

Hi Potnak - quite agree. Can't get excited about the size of the grant but it will certainly help (if awarded) in proving that TYK2 has multiple legs. October will be important to us in terms of visibility and getting past 1p. GLA

Some recent articles highlighting the case for immunotherapeutic strategies are beginning to hit the headlines. Scienmag today highlighted the benefits of combo therapies for pancreatic cancer patients where they have an epigenetic condition that undermines immune acting cancer treatments. By treating the epigenetic condition first and then administering the immune therapies (namely checkpoint inhibitors) survival rates doubled. Only a mouse model at the moment but yet another pointer as to the potential value of our molecules. In another article that talks to genetic knowledge of severe Covid 19 patients, the same argument seems to apply in terms the importance of genetic defects (immune system deficiencies) in respect of a severe Covid response. Patients with the genetic condition could potentially be identified early and therapeutic treatments applied. For this group of patients it may also be necessary to treat them before administering a vaccine (should one ever be available). The overall conclusion (not least in the light of rising concerns as to the viability of ‘silver bullet’ vaccines – Inovios P2/3 vaccine trials have now been halted by the FDA in the US) is that it might be wiser to focus on therapeutics while the vaccine trials roll on. Logically you treat a condition while developing the long term solution. Unfortunately the focus has been almost entirely on a long term solution while therapeutics that could manage the issue get lower priority. Hopefully we’ll get feedback on our Covid grant soon but don’t expect a huge sum. What is important is that the approach gets visibility and that way we get to solutions for both cancer and Covid plus a multitude of other conditions. GLA.
https://scienmag.com/hackensack-meridian-cdi-scientists-find-one-two-punch-for-preclinical-cancer-models/
https://scienmag.com/new-genetic-knowledge-on-the-causes-of-severe-covid-19/
https://bgr.com/2020/09/29/coronavirus-vaccine-update-inovio-ino-4800-fda-halt-cellectra/