Member Info for RMM3383

Good for you Luton! I wonder how many First Pacific have picked up.....

I've taken the time to digest and prepare for Friday. On the whole its continued progress with new snippets. Sorry if that didn't meet the expectation of wannabe overnight millionaires! I find a number of elements intriguing. First of all the statement is early so it gets it out of the way. Sierra released their quarterly statement and then came the unexpected news. SAR aren't giving anything away but having done the regulatory stuff we now wait on Sierra's Shelf Offer to see if it brings the much vaunted milestones. My timeline remains unchanged with news on 737 first, then TYK2 and possibly Aurora. Announcing that if we do get milestones from Aurora it won't be until Q1 2021 gives them wriggle room. Don't forget that Tim said that if progress was being made they wouldn't stick rigidly to the 9 month deadline. On the other hand they could deliver early. Meanwhile my interest re-focuses on TYK2 and the admission that it is proving a challenge to manufacture a dose that is toxic. As Tim said earlier this year its almost a good problem to have but if its holding up pre-clinical it need to be resolved asap otherwise we creep into 2021 without the all important pre-clinical data package. Resolve this and I think we'll be much closer to a deal. As to Covid 19 - 3 months to get a reply? The whole Covid response from the regulators is getting very messy and I really don't want Tim and John side tracked. One of todays articles on a possible Covid 19 vaccine sums up the situation with 90% of vaccines not making it through trials and the problems of creating something with lasting effect etc.... I think Friday will be informative in terms of clarification on many fronts but no one should expect ground breaking revelations. GLA

Some interesting posts over the last 24 hours and good work by Num4. Like Potnak I was not expecting any news from the 10-Q and it looks as if that is exactly the case! But I’m looking forward to getting it out of the way so that Dilly can get on with the real work of what he is going to do with 737. With regard to the Covid Grant, TYK2 progress and Aurora I’m keeping a beady eye on our Chinese friends. The FLT3 ligand and its relevance to Covid along with TYK2 and its relevance to the Cytokine issue makes for considerable intrigue. It’s just too convenient that a Chinese company ‘found’ Aurora and approached SAR with an offer to resolve the solubility issue at a time when the Covid outbreak was already well underway and the military in China were already cracking down on research etc. I think its quite clever how the Chinese have masked their strategy – paying a low amount upfront for Aurora on the basis that it had been shelved, disguised what they are up to. If they’d paid a large upfront it would have drawn attention to their strategy, the Chinese are inscrutable in these situations. What is now emerging is that Covid won’t be resolved with a single vaccine nor will its treatment be reliant on just one drug. A bit like 737 and LDG it will be the combos that will be successful. On this basis there may well be roles for both Aurora(FLT3) and TYK2(probably 1802). The Chinese already have a TYK2 but so far I’ve not been able to ascertain how ‘clean’ it is. https://adisinsight.springer.com/drugs/800056482
What is interesting is that they (Innocare) announced in late 2019 that they would be applying for ‘Innovative New Drug’ status for their TYK2 in H2/2020. At the point of announcement Covid was in its early stages and Innocare were targeting lupus and psoriasis. Will they be looking at other options as SAR are with 1801/2? On top of this we finally have the release of the DoD report which backs up why Innocare are going for IND with their TYK2. Innocare have a much bigger management team and deeper pockets than SAR but they’re still not on the same scale as a Fosun, Pfizer etc. What SAR need to be aware of is the possibility that the train will leave the station while they are still checking the contents of their suitcase. No news by the end of September (737 or TYK2) and we have cause for concern IMHO. No news by the end of November (737 and TYK2) and we’ll know that TM has lost the plot.

Basser - Not sure I agree. SAR has never been a leaky ship but Sierra under NG was. Not sure about Dilly but there's no doubt in my mind that he briefs institutions and analysts before news. If the Sierra SP goes down it could be that he's retaining 737 and milestones will be due as the analysts will see this as a 'cost'. On the other hand if the Sierra SP goes up then he's probably on-licenced and we still get the milestones but at no cost to Sierra. Either way we are in a strong position. News later in August is my expectation.

Hi Krone - Dilly has a reputation as a fast worker and he's been relatively quiet for a few weeks. I don't think there will be any revelations in the Q10 but the rest of August could be very interesting as pressure will be building on him to sort out 737.

Out of the blue deal between AZN and REDX for their porcupine inhibitor. Deal not dissimilar to 737 - $17m upfront and another $360m in milestones. REDX SP up 200% already. There are deals to be done....

From what I saw it was nothing controversial. He simply noted that it was not unusual for SAR to put on weight and then drop back 30%. There were no links or live prices etc.... The moderator being over cautious?

Two price monitoring RNS's , Parker tweeting about Roche, MM's walking the price down and Thoth's last post deleted. What is going on???

Silver - I think you mean 0.1% of shares in circulation.

Just read the profile of Christina Thomson - the new joiner to Sierra as General Counsel - Her expertise is not just in IP but in strategic and transactional law. She also has a background in BRACanalysis (Breast and Ovarian Cancer). Sounds to me much more like a positive than a protectionist move. Q10 looming......
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/28/2068508/0/en/Sierra-Oncology-Appoints-Christina-Thomson-as-General-Counsel.html

Thanks Potnak. I checked out the role of General Counsel for IP and it could be protective (infringement, retention of rights to added value/content) but it also involves the writing of contracts. If Sierra were to on-licence then this is the sort of advice they would need. Alternatively if they were also going for fast track they would also need to protect their IP. All sorts of options.

Aber - May be nothing to do with 737. They've just registered a new trademark (reason unknown) and its not just 737 they've put on the back burner - 141(not ours) has also been shelved. The run up to the next Q10 will be interesting as under NG Sierra was a leaky ship.

Global market size for Kinase Inhibitors is currently around $27bn if CAGR is applied to the old published figures. Our FLT3, if successful, is worth more than we thought!

Thoth - if I can drag you away from looking at boats, a few top line findings and thoughts. The MSD market (Musculoskeletal Diseases) is currently worth about $64.23bn (£51.38bn). MSD's are the largest single workplace injury - around 30% of workplace injuries in the US involve MSD's. The US alone spent $50bn on dealing with such injuries (not all treatment costs but also compensation etc). Anything that speeds up recovery or stops degeneration will be important not just to the pharma industry but also the insurers who pay out. Potentially a 'cure' could save billions in compensation costs. Just 1% of the market would provide SAR with an annual income of over £500m (16p per share). That of course assumes we take a share rather than increasing the overall market size. We are of course a long way off a marketable product but the Chinese report is 2 years old and no doubt a lot more has been done that we don't know about. What this does is reduce yet again the risk that any pharma might have in taking a TYK/JAK inhibitor into their pipeline. If and its a big if, the research continued to show that the TYK/JAT pathway could deliver a therapeutic treatment for MSD's then this is the biggest market so far. All IMHO. GLA LTH's

QC - The current market size for Lupus treatments is about $2.3bn so decimal point in the wrong place. Still a huge market and if we developed a drug it may actually increase the market size rather than cannibalise market share.

Thanks Thoth. That’s my weekend homework sorted then..... good job it’s raining!

Latest research update on Sky News concerns a study that identifies Covid 19 using an enzyme to camouflage itself from the immune system. Looking at a paper published back in 2012 it would appear that TYK2 and JAK1 are both involved in the process which works via NSP16. Whilst TYK2/JAK1 inhibitors don't inhibit NSP16 directly they could be part of the therapeutic/anti-viral solution. Looks more and more like the solution to Covid 19 will be a combo (now which company is already involved in combos in this territory?). Following on from the Lupus results it looks more and more like our molecules will have extensive applications beyond the trial indications that are being targeted. Could be a bit of a money spinner..... Fig 2 is the interesting one:
https://europepmc.org/article/med/22572391

Fadec - You may be right and 1802 proves better in all indications but at this stage I'm glad we have two options in the running. Cuts our failure risk by 50%! Meanwhile I'm enjoying the SP ride!!

Hi Fadec - I don't think its quite accurate to describe 1802 as the superior molecule over 1801. Horses for courses. What they've done is test both 1801 and 1802 to see which one works best against Lupus and in this case its 1802. When Tim said they had a potential solution for the Covid 19 Cytokine storm he started with 1801 but then quickly added that they could also use 1802. I think its going to depend on the indication as to which is best. A bit like whether wet tyres are superior to slick tyres. Depends on what conditions prevail. The really good news IMO is that we have the money to progress both 1801 and 1802. Before the placing it was going to be 1801 first then 1802 in 2020. Both should be ready for progression later this year. Furthermore we still have the big news to look forward to, the release of this report was anticipated a while ago and the news hasn't disappointed but the next news should be a game changer IMHO. GLA LTH's

Stoney - The final report was completed in June 2019. However, it has only just been 'approved for public release'. The 'performing organisation' was SRI who presumably were told of its release? The question is whether they were told and have they told SAR? As SAR already had access to the report for third party use then the DoD/SRI may have thought there was no need to notify them that it had gone public! Let's not undermine what looks like great findings.