Sorry. Re-phrase that. We're not on the platform, we're queuing for the ticket office. Very unimpressed. Suggest that they forget this journey and try to catch the TYK2 Licencing Express to Human Trials just beyond Pre-Clinical for Autoimmune and Cancer. The train is in the station and about to depart.....
Hi Potnak - I thought that one through a while back and I did wonder if it was a 'bluff'. 'We're preparing an application for a grant....' but we're not going to submit it but it puts pressure on a potential partner to do a deal. However, if the deal falls through the train has left the station so maybe we should submit the proposal... and round and round in circles I go!
Hi Krone, I'm equally bemused. They really have got to stop hiding behind a wall of silence in the hope that we'll put about conspiracy theories that make them look good! Getting news out of them is like the proverbial blood from a stone. Tick, tock....
The daily SP games don't worry me. What does concern me is that we've gone back to the silent treatment mode. We know that they were preparing a grant application so that can't be under NDA which means that they could update us on when the application was submitted and the outcome (I don't believe they haven't been told). My biggest fear is that the BoD have reverted to being wonderful scientists, sharing their expertise to much acclaim within their peer group and have completely forgotten who is paying for all this. The Covid train has left the station. If we're not on that train then we need to know and the BoD need to re-focus on licencing TYK2. One other thing to keep in mind is that over at Avacta the BoD seem to have done a remarkably cosy deal with an untried company to distribute their Covid Saliva Testing Kit. Not surprisingly the market has taken it badly - a wasted opportunity. I hope that Mike Owen, one of our NED's and also a NED at Avacta has taken note. I sincerely hope we won't see the same mistake made here. GLA
Hi Thoth - very interesting reading. So not only is there the cytokine storm to contend with but cytokine signalling is also involved in the binding process. Could there be a double whammy here? The JAK-STAT pathway could stop the virus binding and therefore it can't reproduce (upon which it dies out) or if the host already has an infection it stops the immune system going into overdrive but allows an immune response appropriate to removing the virus whilst preventing further reproduction or re-infection? A therapy based on this response would be just as good as a vaccine even if you had to take it more frequently. The best solution would be an inhibitor without tox issues.....
While we wait for the paint to dry, sorry ink to dry on the contract there is more evidence emerging that a vaccine for Covid 19 may be overtaken by other options. This article caught my eye on MSN
Which put me on the path to look at RNA inhibitors and FLT3. That produced a scholarly article I browsed for key words.
It doesn't mention Covid 19 (its a very old 2001 article) but its intriguing for the reference to the problems they had with their inhibitor:
'Although AG1295 itself is not clinically useful due to problems with solubility and bioavailability, other FLT3 inhibitors can be developed that will overcome these limitations.'
Indeed, other inhibitors have been developed and I know of one that's up for solubility resolution. As an aside the FLT3 inhibitor they used did show a therapeutic effect (for Leukemia). Hopefully someone is joining the dots and one of those resides in Cambridge. The more I think about it the more I think the Chinese approached SAR rather than the other way round. GLA
In June of last year Tim told investors that there was the prospect of significant value in the next 12 months. Times almost up. In September 2018 we were told that the business strategy was to focus on 1801/2 and get it licenced in the pre-clinical stage with the aim of getting to the clinic in 18 months. Times up. Covid then arrives, unanticipated, we're told a grant application is being prepared which we can only assume has been submitted and we know the review process is rapid. Times up? Overdue? Tweets emerge to create the impression that we are in a good place. Then silence. Silence is golden some would say while others say its because we are in discussions/negotiations/under NDA. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now but I'm also erring to the point of view that good as the science is, they can't close a deal. If we get to the middle of June without 'significant' news then I seriously think the prospect of an EGM will re-emerge. Not de-ramping or challenging the science but this is a commercial investment not a charity. My experience is that deals that drag on don't get done. Fingers out boys! GLA
Hi WiP - I had a look at Fosun a few weeks back. They have some very interesting subsidiaries including Fochon Pharma. Unfortunately a lot of their website is not in English but they are active in cancer. They certainly don't have anything like Aurora or TYK2.
This also caught my eye this morning and I was more than surprised that it hadn't made the headlines. Sorrento are not a new company - est 1989 and have a solid pipeline so they're not novices in the sector. The article I read stated no side effects and 100% effectiveness in preventing the virus reproducing. However, its pre-clinical and they can only make 200k doses per month. Assuming you need to take one dose a day that covers less than 7k people. I'm sure that manufacturing could be ramped up but the bit that caught my eye was that they see it as one part of a ****tail. Knowing the problems of administering drug ****tails (a mate of mine chaired the committee on Gulf War syndrome where troops were given a completely untested ****tail of drugs) things may well not be as straightforward as portrayed. No side effects based upon petri dish tests are a long way from no side effects in living human beings. Especially when humans come in multiple varieties and operate outside lab conditions. I'd love it to be true. Pop a pill and the virus is stopped in its tracks. It would be a silver bullet but its untested. SDC1801 may still be pre-clinical but we know it doesn't have tox issues and its ready for in-human trials. The race is still on imo.
Hi Stoney - The SP was purposely stepped down and held there. Now the orders have been filled it's returning to normally levels based on PI appetite. I also suspect some day traders will pile in today just on the possibility of news on Monday. If nothing happens then they'll pile out again! What fun!!
Well worth a read if only for context. Akeso IPO oversubscribed 639 times! Also for an indication of China's appetite for immune:
Good article Bobbler and I concur with other posters that Aurora could be a dark horse and TYK2 has many indications. It's not all about Covid but the virus hasn't half focused the industry and accelerated development programmes. Lets not forget that TYK2 in both variants is still pre-clinical but wouldn't it be great if on top of Covid therapeutics we also moved the goal posts on cancer, lupus, arthritis etc.
When it comes to making money and politics the West is as mucky as the East. From my experience the East are better at playing the long game and think well beyond the initial 'battle'. Potnak - I think you are correct. They'll solve solubility and then offer to buy it without any indication of its proposed use. If the BoD have any sense they'll demand a high price based on what it could have been worth had the solubility issue solved in the UK. The main question in my mind is to do with TYK2.
Just been reading the Avacta RNS which states that their affimer reagents have been shown to prevent the Covid 19 virus from replicating. Their SP has gone up by all of 31.5% so far today. Considering the potential I'm more than slightly surprised at the tepid response by the market. OK so they also announced an equity release but the news warrants more than 30% IMO. Yesterday we had a more or less red day across the pharma sector and today looks like being a more or less blue day. The fickleness of the western markets is legion. Compare this to the article on Reuters that I read last night where the healthcare sector in China/Hong Kong has gone skywards with multiple IPO's and fund raises. I've no idea what the BoD of Sar are up to but I'm now thinking that if they have news they need to release it soon otherwise market sentiment will work against us. Given the fickle nature of the London market I'm more inclined towards an offer from a pharma that buys the business lock, stock and barrel and on this basis I'd look towards China as a potential acquirer that recognises the value even if it wants it at a discount. The conspiracy theory over Aurora and Covid will continue to rage but we, on this board in particular, need to prevent the spread of false/incorrect news. At the AGM Tim and Co made no mention of a potential deal on Aurora and in reply to a question on the pipeline made no attempt to counter the statement that Aurora was effectively shelved. The organisation that brokered the deal stated that it was unusual to broker a deal inside 6 months. That doesn't mean it took 6 months. From what has been said I get the impression that the deal was brokered well inside 6 months. The Chinese have the ability to move swiftly when they want to, compared to the turgid bureaucracy in Europe and the US. My research now focuses on China. I'll let you know if I find anything!!! GLA
At the December AGM the BoD announced that they were cutting salaries by a third and there was enough cash to see them through the next 12 months. A few months later they announced the Aurora deal, a little cash in the bank with the potential for more. More recently the BoD revealed they were preparing an application for a Covid Grant more money potentially. They don't need the money. This repetitive saga of talk around placings and cash burn is exactly that, repetitive. It reminds me of a recent household debate when at the beginning of the lockdown I was asked by one son how much cash we had. 'Enough to last us 18 months'. The wife asked the same question. Same answer. Older son then planted potatoes in preparation for the forthcoming famine. A week after planting he started fretting that they didn't appear to be growing. I advised him that it took more than a week. Last week the potato shoots emerged and a household RNS was released. He then asked how long before they could be dug up. I advised via the PR company (the Wife) that it would be about 2 months and to manage expectations. Despite repeated requests to the PR company the potatoes remain invisible beneath the growing greenery but I know something is going on. However, I cannot predict crop size or date of unearthing. I have therefore informed the PR company not to issue any updates but to reference other planters who have similar experience and can talk to previous crops that came to fruition. Meanwhile I'm waiting on another project to come to fruition. GLA fellow LTH's and gardeners of the biotech variety.
Hi Thoth - sorry to hear that you have fallen foul of the c-womble 19 virus. Get well soon! The Beeb gave airtime last night to the issue of Kawasaki syndrome in children and this morning they've moved their focus to testing and Roche. It was the Roche webcast I listened in on a few weeks back and I was very impressed by their measured approach to the issue. What the Beeb did not reveal is just how few testing machines there are and how long they take to manufacture. This will not be an overnight solution to the testing issue but at least there's a recognition that to get accurate results its not a question of prick your finger, hold it up to the wind and recite the alphabet backwards and if you get to A then you might have the antibodies. In respect of Kawasaki and the wider point about the relevance of the cytokine storm then I think we've now seen plenty of evidence that points to a need to get moving on this sector of research. I don't for one moment think that Tim and John are twiddling their thumbs and unlike IMM they don't issue RNS's that frankly aren't worth the time reading. SAR's PR is handled by Citigate (they don't come much bigger) and they will do what they're told. No news is because there is no news. Having been burned (small time) in IMM I have little respect for today's RNS which simply looks desperate to me. But then they screwed up the P3 on Lupuzor and their investors are so far under water that they will need a 10 bag to break even. Good luck to them. In respect of the fretting PI's, like them I am being impatiently patient but its always been a waiting game. GLA
The slide showing the investors in todays presentation is the same as the one in the Q2 2020 presentation. However, the Q2 2020 slides have an entire page given over to Gilead who are identified as a stock holder and endorse Sierra. I wouldn't read anything into this. If Gilead had backed out it would be major news!