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Looks very much to me as if the MM's are slowly pricing in the CTA. For what it's worth I'm not expecting news until at least the end of the month and more likely the beginning of November. The industry is full of delays and bureaucratic catch-up. However, a modest rise of around 5% a day would get us close to £5 by the end of October (or 9-10p territory in old money). As often quoted, nothing goes up in a straight line but underlying value will eventually be recognised even without news. GLA

First of all the FDA have not said no. Second the FDA have made recommendations on how to get it right. We all know, with the benefit of hindsight, that the original trials in the US were flawed. The MM's have taken this down to feed the knee jerk selling of those in for a quick buck (or so they thought). If Avion want to take some time to get it right then you can't blame them and it would have been market abuse by IMM to put out an RNS that states everything is rosy. The next RNS will contain the detail that will make or break this investment. GLA

Sotyktu costs $6k for a 30 day tub of pills. 7.5m psoriasis sufferers in just the US. Lets say 10% of them are suitable for the drug. That is a market size of $54bn in just the US. Makes you think doesn't it......

Neither 1801 nor 1802 have an effect on IL-1beta. In fact I do worry that the BBC have raised expectations that won't be fulfilled. Novartis have an IL-1beta inhibitor in trials (since 2009), its called Canakinumab or Ilaris and it has serious side effects. Patients need an injection every 2 weeks at a cost of £15k per injection. That's hardly going to be viable as a preventative measure . A pill may be possible but looking at the side effects I think I'd prefer to take my chances unless absolutely necessary.

Just seen that the NHS have rejected Olaparib for Prostate Cancer. The rejection appears to be based on cost rather than benefits. Johann De Bono (who we know of old) gets a mention in terms of how it targets the tumours. Some interesting feedback by the scientists that the problem of cost is probably more to do with the cost of the genetic profiling which they feel the NHS should be doing anyway. Now, if there was another drug that worked with a PARP inhibitor it might be even more effective and therefore cost beneficial. Thoughts anyone??

737 aside, because we have no control over this, I feel its time that SAR reviewed their business model and commercial approach. A few years back we had, as Tim put it, a good problem in that we couldn’t find a level at which 1801/2 were toxic. We also had the good problem of being able to target a range of indications but only needed to be successful in one to get a big payback. So now we have the CTA in play and an indication on the table. From my perspective its time to put the foot hard on the accelerator as it’s taken far too long to get to this position. A lot has been posted on the potential value, the science behind it and the hope that we have the attention of big potential partners (even acquirers) however, we desperately need a new commercial approach otherwise we’ll be left behind as others with bigger mouths steal our thunder. I really don’t see Tim taking us to a level where real value is achieved and I really hope that we’re going to see strategic change in the next month or two. Without someone at the helm to really push the pre-clinical licence model all we’re going to see/hear is the same rhetoric and I’m afraid that the potential licencees are probably as bored with it as we are. If it comes at a cost then so be it. The HNWI’s must be wondering what the hell they’ve bought into and to retain them (and even incentivise them to put in more) then the BoD needs to raise its game. As we approach the end of the holiday season the big boys will be back to play. Are we going to be on the playing field or just stood by the sidelines? The news flow is spasmodic at best and does little to engage new investors let alone partners. Over to you BoD to demonstrate that I'm wrong…..

Billy you need to read the RNS. Covid was always a sideshow for SAR and rightly remains so.

'The Phase 1a part of the trial is expected to provide safety and dosing information applicable for any future trials in patients with other autoimmune diseases and the acute respiratory symptoms of viral infections, including COVID-19, should the Company decide to progress such trials. '

I think we just put a price tag on the goods in the shop window. Just a question of who pays to take it all the way through the clinic..... and it won't be us. Partners are alluded to in the RNS so forget about a raise. Excellent progress and keeping to the timeline. Psoriasis and Leukaemia, we're not going for the small stuff! GLA

I think it was a sign….. that he’d had a G&T….or two!

I’ve been spending some time looking at Midatech where our Chairman has recently popped up. It’s a lot more interesting than I first thought because there’s a possibility that interaction between Mida and Sar could be very much in our interest. Go back a few years and Aurora FLT was high on the SAR agenda and looking good. Then we had the problem of solubility where there have now been two attempts to resolve it. It’s now back on the shelf with, quite rightly, the focus on 1801 and 1802. However, I don’t believe we should write off Aurora off as it was certainly very promising and with Mida’s platform and in particular MidaSolve there could well be resolution if the two ever came together. On this basis we could have a strong contender in Aurora to follow 1801 and 1802 into the clinic. To add further fuel to the fire Mida have a strong pipeline and experience in the targeted delivery of drugs, particularly cancers. So take 1801 and 1802 with their low toxicity and target them with precision (ie optimise the delivery at the site of the cancer etc) and any clinical trial becomes a lot more likely to succeed in reaching its end point. I’m not promoting the case for a merger but building upon one of Thoth’s ‘munterings’ I’d be very interested to see 1801 go into the clinic (which must be soon) and trigger a licence, the money from which would fuel 1802 and restart Aurora. At which point we become very, very valuable. Bear in mind that Mida are already partnering with Janssen in respect of targeted drug delivery plus MidaCore is being targeted at Psoriasis where we also have an interest. Too many dots that could be joined up in different ways tells me that any collaboration promoted by our Chairman would only be to our advantage. GLA

Hi Krone. I remain well and I trust you do too? Only popping onto the BB every so often as I think the science is no longer the issue but how the BoD commercialises the opportunities open to it. Taking 737 first, unfortunately I think that the Sierra/GSK deal has muddied the water for 737. If GSK hadn't made the bid for Sierra then I would have expected 737 to have gone back into the clinic by now. What I can't quite understand is why GSK is making no mention of the pipeline beyond Momo. From my experience when you do your DD on a target you value all the assets, not just one. Either GSK thinks the others have no value and will simply let them lie fallow or they have two options - develop them or dispose of them. From my perspective there is value in 737 and if GSK don't intend to put it back into the clinic then I'd certainly be in favour of SAR making a bid to acquire it. Given what Dilly achieved with Momo then its a good business model for SAR to explore (taking something someone doesn't want and demonstrate that it has commercial value). At present I'm not convinced that GSK will take 737 forward but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. On this basis I'm not expecting news about 737 for a while yet, probably not before September (I'll give the GSK team 3 months to decide what to do with it).

In the meantime, all eyes on 1801 where I expect news this month simply because that's what the team should be focused on. We've missed the boat on Covid but as this was never the main play I'm unconcerned and the little distraction this provoked did in fact provide another avenue of opportunity (URI's) that widens the attractiveness of TYK2 and thereby reduces the risk factor (if only slightly) when a licencee or partner considers the potential of 1801. What concerns me is that SAR and 1801/2 have been around too long and the process of getting them into the clinic has been pedestrian. The science may be robust but we need commercial nous to get us noticed and on the radar of potential acquirers. To this end I'd like to see the BoD getting more proactive because I have a suspicion that the potential acquirers (we know they are talking to people) will either lose interest or wait for compelling evidence that 1801/2 works which means that the 'licence at pre-clinical or shortly thereafter' business model is broken. In particular I'd like to see incentives to get deals done, some new initiatives on the PR front and even a change to executive and non-exec responsibilities. In other words we need a shake up that will underpin the forthcoming CTA otherwise it will be just another RNS confirming what we already know which the market will price in as 'business as usual' therefore no change. I know that all sounds a bit downbeat but the BoD need to show a bit of leg in my opinion otherwise we will be overlooked. GLA

Warthog - I think you will find that he's been very active in bringing on board the HNWI's. As to costing £300k that's a lot less than I've made from Sar during his tenure. My focus is not on the NED's but the Execs as they are in control of the CTA which must be due soon?

The whole point of a Chairman is to network and facilitate. The day to day running of the business is down to Tim and John. Another string to our Chairman's bow can only be good for us as this means that someone somewhere has seen the benefits he's brought to Sar. It also raises his profile and thereby all the companies he is associated with. I'm intrigued by the fact that Midatech are a lot smaller than SAR but jointly listed on AIM and NASDAQ. He's also replacing a very experienced and well connected Chairman and inheriting a bigger team with sound credentials. What I'd like to see now is some evidence that the SAR Execs as opposed to the Non-Execs are building value. 737 aside we nee to see progress on 1801/2.

A thought for the coming bank holidays. GSK have signed over Rilapladip to a start-up now underway by their former R&D head in Shanghai. Intriguing that someone has taken a 'failed' pathway and sees something that others don't. Remind you of a company beginning with S and ending in a? Anyway, the potential has switched from heart drugs to Alzheimer's and the newco is looking at Lp-PLA2 as a possible treatment for the latter. Meanwhile GSK have held onto the original Lp-PLA2 (Darapladib). Alzheimer's is a currently a big market - currently $5bn - but the money is in the pipeline. In just the US the number of people suffering from Alzheimer's is predicted to almost triple by 2050. On that basis we could see the market increase to over $20bn by 2050 allowing for inflation and increased therapeutics. In fact I'd probably say that's a serious underestimate. My limited view is that as with cancer the route forward will involve combo's. Looking at Alzheimer's you don't have to travel far to find that the STAT3 pathway has been identified as a player in the condition and that activation of the STAT3 pathway leads to neuronal death. So a STAT3 inhibitor like TYK2 now becomes a factor in the treatment. Hopefully someone in GSK or the newco (SciNeuro) is joining up the dots. If not then the SAR BoD need to widen their conversations. I may be wildly out on the science but stranger things have happened. Given the dreadful condition that Alzheimer's is, I'd love to see us play a role in its treatment. GLA

Good to see the MM's performing exactly to type. RNS interpreted as 'no immediate deal' therefore drop the price. Short termism rules! Only an idiot takes the goods out of the window before they are sold. Anyway, must rush. I've got some paint drying that needs to be watched.

Hi Krone - I'm now well, hope you are too. Had Covid a few weeks ago but really just a head cold. More worried about what is going on in Europe than anything else hence my spasmodic visits to the BB. I'm not surprised by the SP movement. GSK acquiring Sierra led to the traders piling in on a potential TO and now they're bailing out. From my perspective I can't believe that GSK didn't do their DD on Sierra without looking at the whole pipeline. Momo might be at the forefront but when you make a bid for a company you look at all its assets. That Dilly and co were about to put their other assets into the clinic must mean that GSK would have looked at the options and built that into their price. My understanding of the deal is that they are buying the company not just Momo which means they either plan to take the other assets forward or offload them. No point in leaving them on the shelf. They have enough cash to advance them so its either trials or a sale. Given the outlined timings I don't think we'll get little more out of Sierra/GSK until the deal is done and the detail behind it it revealed. That's essentially the lawyers ratcheting up their fees and will probably take most of May and June. Which makes for interesting timing. If the CTA for 1801 goes out in June then we could have the double whammy of news on 737 and 1801 into the clinic at the same time. Unfortunately for us we will have to tolerate the traders and short termers messing about with the SP throughout May. Consolidation has yet to bring in the II's which means that the SP is still prone to volatility (consolidation on its own does not bring instant stability as some have expected) so SAR remains an investment for most and a trading opportunity/disappointment depending on your appetite for risk, lack of research, financial nouse etc. Looking beyond the veneer I'd be very surprised if the BoD weren't re-opening discussions with interested parties. GSK's move on Sierra means that other players must be wondering if they've missed the boat on TYK2 and GSK are lining up another strategic play. In the oppositions shoes I'd be re-evaluating whether to wait on P1 data for 1801 and risk GSK getting an inside track or make a move now. For the big pharmas its squeaky bottom time while the investors in SAR sit pretty. As I and many other LTHers have pointed out we haven't had any bad news on the science front. One little win, like 1801 sailing through P1 on just one indication and everything will change. I could be very wrong but I'm not anticipating news from SAR for a few weeks. What would change the timeline is GSK revealing the detail on the Sierra deal. If they plan to take 737 forward then they'd be stupid not to look at SAR. If they make a move on us then I'd expect a bidding war and that changes everything. We should be careful what we wish for! GLA

T-O - the market will be closed on Friday so the next 48 hours will set the platform for the second half of April.
DP - It's not the cost that will be the issue. We need to go up against indications that appeal to partners and have big commercial value. As Tim said many moons ago..... we only need to be successful in one. However, if we are successful in one and have potential in many others then its blank cheque time!

Greetings Thoth. Like you I have nothing substantive to base my views on in terms of the recent rises but if I was going to point a finger it would probably be at Sierra. I can't see big rises continuing on a daily basis without news so either we are about to hit resistance at the old 5 and 7p levels or the dam is going to break and we'll get a re-rate. Whatever is going on behind the scenes has prevented us from getting a speeding ticket so there must be something in the pipeline. As you know I've never been a fan of the Covid play unless it gets us into a fast track for both 1801 and 1802 to go up against some big indications but taking on your point about bioterror I'm firmly of the view that the next big conflict will be fought in the lab, in fact it may already be underway. Putins supposed finger on the nuclear button is a blunt instrument. Not much point in irradiating a country if you can't occupy it and reap the economic reward. The Chinese on the other hand will be watching intently to see where this goes and the economic future for them is more in pharma than it is in making guns and bullets. We haven't debated for a while where interest in SAR might originate but I'm now pondering that we could be garnering global interest, certainly beyond Europe and the US. It's getting very close to CTA time, the point at which the SAR business model is focused. I can't help but think that somewhere out there a pharma is going to blink before the price gets too high. GLA

Hi DP - Still here and still well! I'm pretty ambivalent about the current situation because a lot of the downward movement is in my opinion market forces beyond the control of the BoD. The timing of the consolidation couldn't have been worse with whats going on around the world but I think the traders have jumped ship on the basis of no news until H2 when 1801 goes into the clinic. In the absence of news, investors have put their money into other sectors where they think it will be safer (fear of a placing?) and make some short term gains hence the lack of volume but with a new tax year on the horizon then this has got to be the perfect time to fill the ISA . What could very well catch the traders out is news from Sierra. I'm still of the opinion that this is where the next news will come from and I suspect that Dilly is actually quite busy lining up his ducks because when he announces I'm expecting more than just one trial. Whilst I've never seen SAR as a pure Covid play I also do wonder if there's something going on in terms of URI's (taming the Cytokine Storm is more than just Covid) and I don't rule out something emerging that means that 1801 goes into the clinic for more than just one indication. It wouldn't cost a fortune and it would certainly raise our profile. The one thing that I am clear about is that some people thought that consolidation would be the precursor to another placing. I really can't see this happening. From what I can see the HNWI's have not jumped ship and with a whiff of news from Sierra plus the possibility of 1801 going into the clinic for more than one indication then I think the money will pile in. The science remains strong, the cash position is robust and from the tone of the EGM it's hardly doom and gloom. The decline in the SP is disappointing but it's market forces rather than bad news that has driven the rot. All we need is some news, preferably with money attached and I think that's more than possible. In terms of timescales... who knows but I think there's a log jam of news that we'll get sooner rather than later. In the meantime I'm off to remortgage the house so that I can fill up the lawnmower with petrol. All just my opinion....GLA

Merck today announced that they are pulling a PIII trial with Olaparib. If you listened to the EGM recording you will have noted that I asked Tim and John if there was still a possibility of trialling 737 with a PARP inhibitor as a 3 way combo. We know that 737 works with LDG so it would make sense if Merck joined the party. If all 3 worked together then its a big, big win. GLA