Member Info for RMM3383

The Sierra presentation to the HC Wainwright Conference is released for viewing at 11.00 GMT today. Only available to Institutional Investors and Companies. One of three upcoming dates where news on 737 could be featured. The odds are shortening on news.

Mafuta - Alan Lamont was a NED a long time ago but now has no connection with Sareum as far as I'm aware.

Graking - not completely implausible. If Sierra were to release a RNS involving 737 just before the NASDAQ opened we would not be able to release ours until later. However, if we were informed of the Sierra release in advance then the preparation and sign off of the RNS would all be agreed and it could be released any time after the Sierra announcement which could be any time from 1.30 UK time. I'm not saying a RNS is going to be released today but just that an announcement during the day is not inconceivable. It's also why I always have a little shifty at Sierra over lunch. GLA

And so the game continues. Put the SP up first thing and the gullible reset their stop losses. After a little baiting with a modest rise the fizzle turns into a damp squib and down goes the SP. Stop losses collected. Rinse, repeat. To be honest its not even interesting to watch any more. Meanwhile back at LTH HQ the hand sitting continues. Off to walk the dog, or is it the other way around?

Just come in from the garden and a dazzling blue sky only to find that SAR has also gone blue! Not going to tempt fate by saying what I think might be behind it (and the engineered drop). This morning I had a little root around Agile and became more and more convinced that this is not a route we want to go. Judging by the paucity of the number of drugs on trial I can only hypothesise that a lot of pharmas think the same. It may be fast but is it commercial? The money for us is in partnership - respiratory(including but not just Covid), immune and not least cancer. In the BoD's shoes I'd have my eyes firmly on who we can work with while keeping the politicos at a very long arms length. What is certain from the last RNS is that conversations are taking place. Whatever has been going on with the SP over the last few days is as nothing when the real news hits. And now its back to the garden.... GLA

Going to be interesting to see how the LSE software copes with the opening trades. Friday closed at 7.70 mid price yet we are apparently opening at 6.60 with Bid and Ask at 7.00 and 7.10 respectively. Work that one out! Someone will no doubt panic!!

About 5-6 years ago there was a relatively small group of regular posters on this board, Thoth being among them. I recall a new name appearing and Thoth welcomed them with the comment 'we are a broad church'. All views were welcome. At the outset I was also accused of being someone who had posted negatively before and was now posting under a new name. Not true. Over the years I think I've probably earned my stripes, shared my opinions and on occasion taken the odd bit of flak. What has changed in the last 12 months is that we are no longer a minnow and a lot more people have come to the party. We're not a monster yet but we're certainly putting on weight and we've had a few gatecrashers. For all the swings in the SP the story remains the same, we have a substantial pipeline, significantly better than the average biotech and timelines that are coming together. All the research shared on this board adds to the level of confidence the LTHers have built up over the years and why we invested in the first place. There might be disappointments (Sierra are slow off the mark, FLT3 didn't have the solubility issue fully resolved etc) but there have been no outright failures. Quite the opposite in fact. 1801 might be relevant to Covid but I'm far happier that we'll get into the clinic within the next 6 months for the long term indications it can target. The same for 1802. While the politicians fiddle around with vaccines, boosters and pay lip service to therapeutics we sit pretty with molecules that have much broader and longer term potential. That's what I think the majority of us are here for. There was nothing earth shatteringly bad in the RNS, instead we have funding, a timeline and the knowledge that conversations are underway with interested parties. I'm very happy with that. GLA LTHers.

For those concerned can I just reiterate a point made by the Tutor who provided me back in the 80's with the fundamentals of stocks and shares. You only make or lose money when you sell. Value might be wiped off the market but you only lose money if you sell below the price you paid. I may not be sitting on as much 'value' as I was at the beginning of the week but I haven't lost any money. As to future value and potential future gains I've seen nothing this week that makes me want to rethink my investment. It would however, be nice to have some decent weather to pass the time while we wait on the real news. GLA

Your pet investors are P'd off that they haven't been able to buy at a silly discount through a placing and that the company has raised money without them at a premium. So what do you do to appease them? Simple! Drop the price until they can buy in and effectively get the deal they wanted. After that you let the price go and 'Abracadabra!' they've made their instant profit!! Just my opinion of course..... The RNS showed a 'steady as we go' company status. Nothing has changed that supports a sustained drop. DYOR and draw your own conclusions. I doubt there's a LTHers out there who has sold a single share but there will be plenty of doomsayers who will feed the traders.

Hi JB - As you say, we've seen it all before and we know its a game being played, particularly by a certain broker who has had their nose put out of joint. I'm quite relaxed sitting here with a very large gain, knowing there's more in the pipeline and as a 28p+ advocate I certainly haven't gone away. Nor have I changed my outlook based on a few days 'manipulation'. We are not just a Covid play and the HNWI's will know that.

Num4 - That is a very good point! Get the CTA aligned with a potential partners expectations and subject to good results the possibility of a deal increases by a magnitude.

It never ceases to amaze me (although it shouldn't!) that the AIM police will force a company to issue a statement if speculation is leading to what they consider to be a false rise. However, if a false drop is engineered in order to gather cheap stock and engender panic in investors they idly sit by and twiddle their thumbs. Hats off to Hybridan, our unsupportive broker out to line their pockets on the basis of a RNS that reiterates a number of good points and clarifies the timeline on 1801 and the impact of the pandemic. If you want evidence of shortages in all the supply lines then pay a visit to a supermarket. Hardly surprising we have a little delay on getting into the clinic. What is interesting is that the CTA application will go in this year, probably just before the AGM! As to Covid and Agile, after the discussion yesterday I'm even more of the opinion that we won't go down the Agile route. There's more to be had elsewhere! GLA

Hi SOG - I'm very much in the camp that Sar could raise a lot more money if they wanted to - HNWI's is one route but there are other options and I don't rule out partnerships. I'm increasingly in favour of keeping well clear of the politicians. The one thing that keeps my feet firmly on the ground is that SAR is a small team. Yes, you can recruit more people but Tim and John are not people managers, they are scientists. My preference would be licencing, partnering or exit. (Exit is not just TO). What is very clear is that we have control of the patents (as pointed out by a number of people) and this is where the fundamental value is. However, commercialisation of a drug is another matter altogether. Unlike in other markets, cost of production does not determine retail price especially when you have patent protection. At the moment we have control of the patent and therefore the price. As soon as we agree to a route to market where we don't control the price then effectively we've lost control of profitability. Dexamethasone sells for £11.45 and Keytruda for £2,630, Baracitinib £37.60. This to me this why Covid is now very much a side issue - Governments will want the cheapest. If we agreed to sell 1801 for £12 a course to treat Covid we are effectively stuffed because you can't then sell the same drug to treat another indication (like Lupus or RA) at a higher price (at least not in the UK). Agile is a straightjacket that I'm not sure I want to wear especially if I'm then fed gruel instead of the caviar I was anticipating. Yes, that all sounds very unethical but the bottom line is we're here to make money. The question that I can't answer is just how much is too much?

SOG - I too have pondered why we have not had an update on 1801 and Covid. I suspect we are looking at options other than Agile. If I understand Agile correctly the danger is that in return for a 'fast track' we may lose control of the drug and in particular its pricing. This could significantly affect the overall value of 1801 so I'm sure the BoD will be cautious in their discussions. The Government I believe are not to be trusted in their commitment to therapeutics but will wait for another disaster and then knee jerk. In the meantime, as you say, we must be patient and hopefully not become a patient!

…therefore I am…. And I have my own opinions….. which from time to time I share. Apologies to the philosophers. There’s nothing wrong with posting valuations and timelines if there’s reasoning behind your opinions. The CW’s are easily identified as opinion posters with nothing to back up their ‘arguments’. Easily filtered. For those investors genuinely looking to make informed decisions the values, expectations and reasoning behind the views of other investors are all part of researching a share. You put other’s expectations up against your own and make a judgment call. If you don’t like it, ignore it. What is often forgotten when critiquing other people’s opinions, especially on value, is that a product is worth what someone will pay for it. A bargain is when you have something that someone somewhere else needs and is willing to pay a lot more but sees that you have undervalued your asset because your benchmarks don’t take into account the unknown need. Overvaluing results from expectations that have no foundation and no ‘secret’ buyers. With Sar we have a lot of unknowns but also a lot of strong scientific data. The biggest unknown is who in the pharma world is watching and waiting to make their judgment call on whether to licence, acquire, wait or ignore. I’m more than happy to read posts with content that supports opinion and debate. Bear in mind that this BB is a litmus test for anyone watching Sar from the Pharma world. ‘I won’t part with a single share under £40’ is unrealistic for where we are currently. However, if everything goes swimmingly over the next 2-3 years and SAR goes it alone, raising significant funds along the way to fund all the trials and all the drugs prove effective and safe then yes, we might be worth £40 but that is a long way off with a lot of risk. DYOR as they say. On the other hand (as I have often posted), take into account where we are (all pre-clinical apart from 737) and the associated risk discount and we are still undervalued. IMHO and I've posted the basis of my valuations for all to see. Currently I judge SAR to be a bargain for a potential suitor who secretly likes what they see but won’t currently risk paying £4 per share let alone £40. However, 28p, 56p etc may still be a bargain for a buyer and a great return for the LTHers. Get further down the line and £1 beckons but only if the data supports the discounted potential. And that’s just for a swift exit via a TO. There’s more than one way to extract value from SAR and at this stage I wouldn’t rule out a lot of options including the Royalty Farmer Model. 8.2p is, IMHO, roughly 50% of where we should be. We need one piece of commercial news to get us beyond 10p and then the real debate will kick off. And just to close, I’m not after cheap shares. I have more than enough. GLA

Just been revisiting my valuations as its now well over a month since we had the news on 1801 and Covid. My concern is that the Government and their advisors are giving out extremely mixed messages (hardly surprising that we’re all confused). From an acquirer’s perspective we have a lot of potential but at huge risk. Tox may not be an issue for 1801 but its not a guarantee that the drug will work once we get into the clinic. Same for 1802. At the moment the only drug we have that isn’t preclinical is 737 and we have a share in it but no control. I still believe that 737 will move forward but as to timing, who knows. With 1801 and 1802 both still pre-clinical it’s a very high risk for anyone to consider acquiring SAR but….. the potential is there for someone to take a punt. My previous calculations put us at 56p for where we are currently but this would mean a price tag of around £2bn. I can see someone coughing up a billion but two would probably be rich without commercial news ie a milestone from Sierra. At £1bn we’d get just above Thoth’s magical 28p. I wonder how many of us would accept 28p now? Money in the bank and zero risk. Alternatively wait a year and we might get more…. But we might get a lot less or even nothing. Again, as Thoth says, it’s a binary play. At 28p it would mean a 35 bagger for me based on my average. For others it would be significantly more. Got to say that if someone had offered me 28p a year ago I would have bitten their hand off and I probably would now. Musings now over…. GLA

Personal ambition aside, I'd really like to see some continued evidence of progress with 1801 against respiratory diseases. The update from Tim and John that the experiments in this area were inconclusive doesn't mean that 1801 doesn't have potential in this area. Plenty is emerging in respect of Covid variants and whether the vaccines moderate the symptoms but the critical news for me is the re-emergence of Flu as a major killer. We can't base healthcare on continually jabbing people with vaccines, boosters, etc in the hope of keeping the viruses at bay. If that is the Governments strategy then we are on the slippery road to what happened after the Gulf War when troops were given a ****tail of drugs that had never been administered in such a combination. Not surprisingly some of them reacted very badly. Lets get 1801 into the clinic. Please! And just to add to my wish list, people are still dying of cancer. Anything that speeds up 737 and 1802 going into the clinic has got to be welcomed. I'm patiently waiting on my investment but impatient to get the trials underway. GLA and hold tight.

Hybridan ‘your partner for growth’. Really? Would be nice to see them them promoting the company instead of stifling it. Good news today and the sp ends the day flat. Draw your own conclusions. Sour grapes that SAR have been able to raise money without heavy discounting? Hold tight.

I am humbled! You'd think that given the sentiment any normal MM would take the opportunity to move the SP up. Looks like we're got the apprentice on the account today. Hold tight.....

On Friday the news that 737 was ‘off the shelf’ was blatantly downplayed by the MM’s and Hybridan. However, in the overall scheme of things their little antics will be of no consequence. The cash pot is building nicely, 1801 is going into the clinic this year with or without the benefit of a Covid fast track. 1802 looks set to follow hot on its heels. August is probably going to be a springboard month. I don’t think we are completely done with news from Sierra and there should be an update shortly on the next step for 1801 in the Covid battle. I don’t buy the TO angle at this point. With so much in the pipeline I’d expect the BoD to be more focused on proving value by getting TYK2 into trials and confirming 737 going into a combo. At some point in the next few weeks we are going to break out of the current SP range for one simple reason – until the LTHers see a real reason to start selling then the Institutions (who must be watching like hawks) are never going to be able to build significant stakes. A lot of big PI holders know exactly what the value of their investment is and the real top slicing won’t happen with the SP below 10p. On this basis the MM’s will try to scare people into selling but that patently hasn’t worked in recent weeks. I’m expecting the usual games next week until another news drop which could be sooner than we think after which we’ll progress to another level. So far nothing to suggest that my valuations are not achievable. Hold tight!