Member Info for RMM3383

T-ALL Market size currently around $1.7bn and growing (CAGR) by 6.3%. US is the biggest market followed by Germany and France. Effectively we've put 1802 in the shop window for a specific indication. Clearly we're going for it in 2022!

Excelllent. We can now safely take 1802 into the clinic without anyone eating our breakfast. Potentially very big news.

Interesting that Ventyx have chosen to give their TYK2 lead exposure despite the fact that its not their most advanced compound. Something that maybe Sierra should think about? Also I note that their market estimates are for 2020. The forecast for the global psoriasis market is predicted to be $41bn by 2027. Bearing in mind that their TYK2 (if successful) won't get to market until 2023 then they've actually underplayed the potential. For us its further validation of the route to market for 1801 and the potential prize - and that's just one indication.

Just seen that Endpoints have put out an article saying that Merck's Covid pill doesn't look as good as first thought. However, read the second article and the news for SAR gets even better 'Inflection point for Next Generation of Cancer Immunotherapy'. The JAK/STAT pathway gets even more exposure through its ability to drive cytokine therapies, in particular IL-15 which is signalled via JAK1, which of course SDC1802 has something to say about. So, 1801 for Covid/URI's and 1802 for Cancers. Yet more reasons to hold stock in SAR. GLA
https://endpts.com/sp/at-the-inflection-point-for-the-next-generation-of-cancer-immunotherapy/

Mafuta, it was Dr Parker who bought the shares. Let’s give credit where due.

I'm finding it increasingly frustrating that the politicians and tabloids have focused on vaccines as the solution, especially the former. A month ago in the UK you would have thought its all over but now we have a very serious mutation revealed in S Africa. The URI market, of which Covid will become a permanent player is huge but full of limited value therapeutics. Its high time the politicians got behind a long term solution and the media started to look at joined up thinking on the problem. However, with regard to the latter, pigs might fly.... GLA

.....will just turn around and say ‘Well, you got it wrong with that one so why are the others going to be any better?’ He must be very, very sure that Momo is going to deliver or he’s already prep’d his parachute. From our perspective we have every reason to believe that in a combo it (737) works and if it works with something like Keytruda then its going to be very big. That means it’s significantly de-risked for the stage its at. So buy it back and let’s get on with it.
The raid on the SP last week was exactly that. The City has no long term perspective and without a continual stream of news simply loses interest. The last RNS and Investor presentation effectively told the City that there won’t be any news until the middle of 2022. Not very clever but then we have two scientists rather than a scientist and a commercialist. Enjoy your options boys and have a good Xmas but it really is time a commercial CEO was brought in so that the LTHers can enjoy a good Xmas. I might be well up on my investment but I can’t ignore the drop and how the BoD have squandered the rise. This last paragraph might sound negative but the reality is that the old game is over and we need speed and acumen to realise the full and considerable potential of the patents. The AGM is their opportunity to convince us that they understand the issues and can deliver. GLA

I don’t post very often because I think all the important stuff in terms of the science has been said…. many times over! So, I’m just going to share my current thinking prior to the AGM.
Our main assets are 1801 for immunotherapy (indication imminent?), 1802 for cancer and 737 for ….cancer. 1801 is also relevant for upper respiratory infections but in respect of Covid it’s a side show. FLT3 is back on the shelf and will stay there until someone with big pockets resolves the solubility issue. Nothing has significantly changed in respect of where we were a year ago so the issue for me is simply timescales. OK, so we put 1801 into the Covid circus and had some promising results but I for one don’t want it to go anywhere near Agile and the stranglehold that would impose in terms of pricing what is one of our crown jewels (Dilly might have his pearls but we’ve got the big stuff).
1801 should be going into the clinic now. It’s been having its tox issues resolved for far too long and the capsule is really only an excuse for further delays. I don’t believe we have any serious issues with tox (remember Tim saying ‘it’s a nice problem to have’ in respect of being unable to find a max dose?) so getting the CTA ready is, in my opinion, more a case of Tim and John getting their rears in gear. The world needs 1801 for some very big reasons (lupus, psoriasis etc) so choose one, tell us what it is and JFDI. At the AGM I expect them to tell us that the CTA will be accelerated, I don’t want to hear any more excuses and I certainly don’t want to hear that it will now be later in 2022. If the BoD think they can get away with yet more delays then I humbly suggest they start to polish their CVs. In terms of Covid, we haven’t missed the boat because there never was one. The boat we need to catch (after getting 1801 and 1802 into the clinic) will be upper respiratory for flu and pneumonia but that’s secondary. What we have Covid to thank for is accelerating this option. Snapping at the heels of 1801 should be 1802 for one of the big cancer indications. I want both 1801 and 1802 in the clinic in 2022 and the sooner the better. Sareum has been around for too long and I can quite understand why we haven’t been bought. Lots of promise but no solid data. On this basis I think its time for a change in strategy. Stop talking about a pre-clinical licence and start to gear up for the big time. Lots of ways to do this and along the way we see significant increases in shareholder value and reduction of risk, the latter being the biggest brake on SP progress and value realisation. Which brings me to 737…
Time to call Dilly’s bluff. If its really one of his pearls then its time he put it on show. I really don’t get his ‘all eggs in one basket’ strategy with Momo. If it all goes teets up then turning round to the institutions and saying ‘Don’t worry, we’ve got other assets in the pipeline including a certain 737’ will simply not cut it. The institutions.......

Basic calculations while listening in - even allowing for where we are and the risk factors involved - we are seriously undervalued. 737 will lead the charge. GLA

Stach - forgive me but Aurora has never progressed beyond pre-clinical so how did your patients participate? The SAR website shows that Aurora is not even close to passing pre-clinical.

The appointment of PH is a key step in raising our profile. They are a serious heavyweight, especially with the institutions. We don’t need money at the moment so forget a placing. Consolidation can be a double edged sword but given where we are I can see it working to our advantage as it potentially changes us from a penny stock to a £ stock. On that basis alone we ‘look’ more credible to the big players. We clearly have backers in the HNWI’s and despite the delays we’re about to get serious in the clinic. I also believe we’ll get news on 737 well before 1801 goes into the clinic which will makes us even more valuable. Tuesday promises to be interesting but the AGM will be even more interesting IMHO! GLA

Unsurprisingly the MM’s reacted to the Trading Results in atypical fashion – no new money and a delay was all they saw. As Thoth has pointed out on many occasions the market takes a long time to realise what is behind such statements when it isn’t spelt out in words of two syllables. The capsule is a big deal. There are significant advantages to capsules that liquids and tablets don’t have. In particular they have a much better ability to control dosage over time as individual elements can be coated for time release at different times. When taking any medicine controlling the dosage is very important especially when you are managing an immune response. It’s not like a headache where once the aspirin, paracetamol etc takes effect that’s it job done. Lupus, psoriasis etc are lifetime diseases and for many cancers its long term management of the condition. However, moving to a capsule is a major change in the manufacturing process and also involves different toxicology testing because of the way the active ingredient is released. Before any drug goes into human trials it really does need to be as safe as possible. For those that have been here a while, we all know that the problem with 1801/2 was finding a maximum dose. There are ways around this but simply moving from a liquid to a tablet to a capsule doesn’t mean you can side step the testing regimes. I had already anticipated a delay but not because of the move to a capsule. Quite simply there isn’t enough lab space in the world at the moment and chemicals etc are just as logistically stretched as is the petrol supply chain, the log jam in container shipments etc etc. For me the capsule is a great move as it means we can control the release of the active ingredient and thereby reduce the risk of a trials failure. The MM’s won’t understand this so we hang onto our shares until the over endowed lady sings (in this PC world I’m not allowed to say fat and probably won’t be allowed to be gender specific for much longer but that’ll be the least of our problems when we go into trials and the SP takes on a new dimension). In the meantime, all eyes on 737. GLA

RV - Thanks for you support. I only tend to post when I think I've got something to add. For the record this is where I'm at today.
In the year 0002 BC (Before Covid) I attended an AGM where I expressed concern that in respect of TYK2 we could be spread too thinly across the multiple indications that 1801/2 could address. Tim’s response was that we only needed to be successful in one. Having now had a number of years to ponder that response and given that we are now very close to a CTA the key question for me over the next few weeks is just what that initial indication is going to be. Lots has been posted on the patents and possible uses for 1801 and 1802 and my valuations have not ignored the breadth of the possibilities. However, just for balance we need to take into account that once we have a successful drug (or what looks like a successful drug) then the science no longer holds centre stage but the commercial negotiations become paramount. Dr Parker is no fool when it comes to negotiation and in the other NED’s he has serious support to call upon. The declared model for SAR is to licence at pre-clinical or early clinical and so far we’ve not been told anything different. What I’ll be looking for on the 2nd November is clarity around the CTA for 1801 (yes, we know that Covid has caused all sorts of problems for trials, lab space etc) after which we can start to think about timescales and revised valuations. Given how long we’ve been here I think the timescales are shortening but its not going to be Monday for a T/O. SAR have always tried to release some good news before the AGM for obvious reasons and I don’t think this year will be any different. GLA

So, 5% down is 'massive' which means that the rise we had earlier in the week was even more 'massive'. Wow, I need to revisit my perspective on terminology and completely revamp my valuation models. Could be a long day. On the other hand I've just bought a Euromillions ticket. If I get a massive win then the whole lot goes on SAR. Meanwhile I'll concur with Thoth and wait for the presentation from the BoD which will be far more interesting. GLA

Silver - I'm waiting......

The Myelofibrosis market is predicted to reach just under $1bn by 2024 (currently just over $600bn. It's poorly served so we can anticipate a high penetration if the combo proves successful. My original valuation was based on Anogenital and combos with Keytruda and LDG. This adds another dimension. Originally I thought it could add 18p to the SP but this is increasingly looking like an underestimate. If Dilly carries on like this we have a good chance of nearing Thoth's much vaunted 28p on just 737. Clarification now needed from the SAR BoD! GLA

Dilly has played a blinder. He's kept 737 in play, linked it to Momo to keep his investors/institutions happy and is now expanding his pipeline. I'm betting there's a lot more to come. The HNWI warrants at 9p are now looking cheap. GLA

Ahfam - I wouldn't be at all surprised if further work on Covid and 1801 didn't go somewhere outside the UK. Boris and Co are just paying lip service to the development of therapeutics.

Difficult to say exactly what is factored in at the moment! With the SP hovering steadily around 7p it looks more like a coiled spring than a spinning plate. If the 'secret patent' shows any relationship to Covid then I'd expect the SP to put on weight (1-2p?) but if we were to get news out of Sierra then we should shoot past 10p. Thankfully I think the Agile boat has set sail but... I certainly wouldn't rule out a partnership or even going it alone if the data is that strong. What's holding the SP back is the uncertainty over timing - will it be this year, will it be next year for 1801. Given the issues with lab space, raw materials and recruitment then nothing is guaranteed until it happens. One thing I am sure about is that the BoD will want to get some positive news out before the AGM. September could yet be a big month for us in order to set things rolling. GLA

Just been revisiting my valuations and realised that when I was putting them together I had 737 in for one indication - a combo with Keytruda. On top of that we now have the new drug from AZN which potentially 737 could also work with. It might not double the 18p that I thought 737 was worth at the time but if 737 was to combo with both drugs then we have very significant value in 737. My expectation is that over the next few months leading up to the AGM we'll see a new dimension develop with SAR. I'm anticipating more advisors as the company heads to the clinic and has to start to think seriously about commercialisation in a variety of forms. The Chairman will be very much to the fore in all this and having been brought in originally to attract the institutions he may just be about to be given the opportunity to deliver the goods and underpin the HNWI's. We just need the first domino to fall....