Member Info for RMM3383

Not their first time with a patent lawyer. Its a very specialised field and no one in their right mind would attempt it without legal help!

Krone - I noted that Kellie is presenting 'options' (plural) to resolve the situation. I suspect that John has given her the detail and she's packaging it. The wait will be nerve wracking!!

The patent process is a law unto itself hence why its taken so long. If they can bring urgency to the table (via a possible Covid therapy) then I'd hope to see it resolved by the end of the month. Need to take into account that this isn't simple and whatever John says the experts will need to go away and think about it.

Basser - If they play the Covid card then it could force a quicker decision.

Just had a little thought. A couple of options on the patent: 1) Lawyers are expensive. SAR now have money. Therefore a move to break the impasse? 2) Potential licencee wants the patent sorted before agreeing a deal therefore SAR need to get it resolved? Or maybe a bit of both? Who knows..... GLA

If they get the patent split then the new patent gives an extended period of protection which means its worth a lot more.

Fadec - Well done for finding that. Confirms my suspicions that this is one of the elements holding back progress. Even if it goes against SAR we still have the original patent. Would be good to finally have a decision one way or another. GLA

Good replies guys. My take on the 'significant value' was that Tim was expecting 737 milestones with the possibility that TYK2 might get licenced. The fact that Sierra/NG played games put paid to the most obvious return and the TYK2 licence has been complicated by not reaching a MTD and latterly Covid. For me the next 3 months are crucial if my faith is to be maintained. So far I've seen nothing tangible to unseat my view of the science but the lack of urgency worries me. They may be working hard but as I used to point out to my colleagues, working hard and putting in long hours does not mean you are doing your job. Lets have some results.

The SP movement is beggaring belief and speaking with other investors its going to come in for some stick. I know the buy/sell annotation on LSE is system driven but when you see a huge volume go through at the Bid price but a smallish dummy sell comes back as below the bid then its clearly being manipulated. Furthermore we've had whole afternoons when the full Ask has been paid and no upward movement. I'm not sure who is in charge but they're clearly a novice! Accepting that AIM is not regulated to the same standards as FTSE etc this does not bode well for when good news comes. I'm sure that many who bought into the placing will not be happy at a 7% loss within 24 hours. I'm aware that some LTH's didn't participate in the offer (they could have done but were unhappy with the way the SP was being managed) but waited for the crash and then bought in below the offer price. Tim et all might have been happy with the money raised but by my calculations they missed out on at least £300k. Not very clever. Time to get the house in order and then deliver some good news please.

Showing as a 'Sell' but if that was the case I'd have expected that a quantity that big would have gone below the Bid. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see it reversed out tomorrow.

Potnak - I do wonder if its a question of 'if you're not prepared to pay a sensible price, we've now got the money to take it forward ourselves'. Question of who blinks first. We also do know that they've had to fund more toxicity test as they couldn't find a max tolerated dose. For me the interview was very clear, all eyes on 1801 but I do agree with Thoth that the 737 P2a should be the next news.

Just going to correct myself.. .the Avacta discount was 40% not 60%.

….of the amount of work needed to get each application away. I’m not expecting much more from the presentation next week than what we saw at Bio Trinity. It’s a shop window, not a news room. The delays might be frustrating but IMO they’re not unreasonable. So in conclusion the only thing that has really changed this week is that SAR have more money in the bank which from my perspective puts them in a stronger negotiating position. Nothing wrong with that. All the above IMHO. GLALTH’s.

Good to see an element of perspective return to this board. Must admit that over the past few days I’ve only scan read the majority of comments so apologies if some of this has been said before. From my perspective the only thing negative that has happened is that we have seen value diluted by 4%. In the overall scheme of things this is pretty insignificant and doesn’t change my view on long term value. Looking at the sp trend over the last couple of weeks it looks as if the MM’s walked the price down in anticipation of the placing and the real discount was around 21%. This compares very favourably with Avacta where today they raised £45m but it required a discount of almost 60% compared to where their SP was a week ago. Meanwhile much has been happening or not happening beyond the placing. To date we have had no bad news on 1801/2, 737 and Aurora although to read some of the comments you would think all had failed. From the news coming out of SAR on 1801/2 it is quite clear that pre-clinical is progressing – toxicity remains to be resolved, the patent is still pending but Q4 2020 is now the timeline. Considering how Covid is impacting clinical trials the delay is not unreasonable and on this note I turn to Sierra. The combo trials with 737 were extended (rather than curtailed when they go wrong/bad – as we’ve seen with Hydrochloroquine and Remdesivir) which suggests the news is either OK or good but unlikely to be bad. We have this week had regime change at Sierra and I doubt very much that they would have brought new blood in just to continue the old strategy. I’ll be interested to see what emerges but I’m not expecting a switch from Momo to 737. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sierra ‘absorbed’ by another entity and it wouldn’t necessarily be Gilead. That would at least force the situation on 737 which currently appears to be stalemate. On Aurora we’re now 3 months in with the Chinese ‘partner’ and nothing bad has emerged. 6 months to go and give or take a month we should find out if they’ve resolved the solubility issue. As a result of the placing we now have enough cash to keep the business viable for at least 18 months so no issues over SAR not being a going concern. In fact with close on £2m in the bank (not counting milestones) the business is in a strong negotiating position. So, no one wants to pay big bucks for TYK2 at this point? No problem, we’ll take it further and the price goes up. And then there’s the whole Covid 19 grant issue. At the outset this wasn’t really an option for SAR but then the respiratory issue came to a head and now we have the very real prospect that a vaccine won’t be found and therapeutics will play a bigger role. Also lets not forget that the market for pneumonia etc is also very large even if TYK2 is not an option for Covid 19. As to timings, Tim was very clear in the trading update that one of the reasons they weren’t immediately sucked into Covid was because....

I saw an amusing article in The Sun (of all places) concerning a 'mole catcher' who invested £350k in Avacta in April and has made a £2m profit based on the SP rise brought about by their Covid 19 testing. As I was reading it I was really hoping that he'd say that he'd now sold up and put the lot into SAR. Unfortunately there was no mention of where he's put his profits.....

When SAR announced the Aurora deal the unknown partner was described as a pharma listed on the Shanghai exchange. Sinovac is listed on NASDAQ.

Seawolf - SAR are not allowed to name the Chinese Pharma, that was one of the conditions of the agreement. As I have explained previously the Chinese place considerable emphasis on maintaining 'face'. They will not want to risk failing and the knock on effect it may have on their SP. It's not down to Tim et al.

The steady rise in the Sierra SP since the middle of May and it's stability today tells me that the market knew this was coming. I wonder what else they've been quietly told.

Personally I'm pleased to see NG go. As to Sierra's strategy you wouldn't bring in someone new simply to continue with the old strategy. As the new brooms, Dilly and Collard are going to be crawling all over Sierra and the shareholders will be looking to changes in due course. You wouldn't announce a new strategy until you can answer all the questions.

Sorry. Re-phrase that. We're not on the platform, we're queuing for the ticket office. Very unimpressed. Suggest that they forget this journey and try to catch the TYK2 Licencing Express to Human Trials just beyond Pre-Clinical for Autoimmune and Cancer. The train is in the station and about to depart.....