Member Info for RMM3383

Hi Krone - My view is that Covid is a catalyst for many AIM companies and beyond. If you look at what non-pharma companies like Maclaren and ProDrive have done with ventilators then it's game on for developments that weren't even on the agenda 4 months ago. With regard to SAR I think we were in a holding pattern waiting on certain triggers of which the patent issue was one. Now, with the worlds eye's on Covid the rules have changed and its a race enabled by government money and red tape slashing that can only be to our benefit. My money was on September/October for a pre-clinical licence on TYK2 but the current pressures could bring that forward considerably. Going for a grant puts more pressure on a potential licencee because in theory it means you have something viable (although unproven) which raises the price and shortens the timescale. Didn't see Aurora coming and I don't think SAR did either! Conspiracy theories aside, timescales will be shortened but I don't believe the vaccine hype and I'll be amazed (although very happy) if one arrives this year or next for that matter. For the next 18 months it will be testing and therapeutics that will provide real relief while the vaccine is hope for the future. All IMHO.

Two keys things for me in the presentation. The obvious one being the reference to Covid but its the last slide that hits home: 'Demonstrates our ability to develop and commercialise clinical and preclinical candidates'. I think they've been stung by the accusation that they are 'just' scientists and unable to monetise. In conversation with the Chairman a couple of weeks back he passed on some information I had unearthed to Tim and John but it was his closing comment that did it for me 'I don't want them distracted'. Distracted from what??? Draw your own conclusions. My view FWIW (and I definitely don't have inside info) is that news will filter through over the next 6 months. Possible update on 737 in May, then Aurora in June/July and TYK2 anytime because the last one could be Covid catalysed. Considering how much other AIM stocks have gone up on the back of 'testing regimes' then anything to do with therapeutics will be fast tracked. We're going to get a lot of spikes and retraces over the coming months so be prepared and ignore the CW's. If you believe in the science then their views (unless substantiated with hard facts) are ****e. Govt grant? Money in the pot. Aurora/737 Milestones? Money in the pot. TYK2 licence? Money in the pot. Risk of failure? Always, but at this stage of the game it's a calculated gamble unlike when you get to P3 and its binary. Squeeky bum time for the next 6 months. GLA genuine LTHER's.

For those who can remember as far back as the AGM they will recall that I asked Tim et al whether the anonymity was at the request of the Chinese or SAR. The answer was that the Chinese requested it. Having worked with Chinese companies I know that 'maintaining face' is a big issue for them. They will not want to be associated with failure. On the upside the timeline (even before Covid) was only 9 months, very short in terms of pharma development which means they either thought it was doable or if not then it would be quickly buried. My money is on the former. The Chinese only take on projects that could fail if someone else is paying and in this instance they're paying. GLA.

Hi Stoney - Looking at the results for Remdesivir and also the Q1 for Sanofi (who are collaborating with GSK on a vaccine for Covid) it's looking increasingly likely that a vaccine will be a holy grail. One report I read this morning likened a vaccine for Covid as similar to manufacturing a vaccine for the common cold. Not surprising then that the focus beyond the media and politicians is turning rapidly to a tiered response - Therapeutics, anti-virals and hopefully a vaccine. Regulating the body to cope with the virus (as we do with the common cold) could be more of a long term solution than trying to neutralise it.

Ta! I'm off out now to enjoy the sun!!

Listened in to the Q1 2020 Roche presentation this afternoon (90 mins and mostly in plain English). Lots of good information and questions on or related to Covid 19. Roche’s focus is very much on testing and anti-virals. Very little about a vaccine and the CEO later commented that he thought a vaccine was up to 2 years away. From our perspective there was useful insight into the impact of Covid on clinical trials and big pharma bau. Essentially they were finding innovative ways to keep the trials running with minimal delays (hopefully Sierra are doing likewise) and in terms of day 2 day running the comment was ‘we have been remarkably effective at working from home’ (as are Tim and John). Key feedback and a lot of questions around Actemra which is their ‘cytokine storm’ inhibitor (but different to our TYK2). Lots of trials underway and the big readout will be in June (so forget all the nonsense about a vaccine going into trials tomorrow and the world back to normal on Friday). If Actemra is effective they expect to have ‘millions of doses’ ready by September. Currently the NHS prices Actemra at £913 per shot so millions of doses means billions of £’s (or swiss francs in their currency). If (and yes it’s a very big if) SAR could engage in just a slice of this market we are talking very big numbers and there’s the pneumonia/influenza market on top. Lots of debate around anti-virals’ and some interesting comments about governments failing to understand some of the options. One angle that Roche were clearly sore about was the inability of governments to understand how some treatments prevent the spread of the virus – one treatment is effective in slowing the reproduction of the virus to the extent that a person no longer becomes a spreader 24 hours after being dosed. Given the tweets from Sareum this week and Dr Parkers latest addition it would seem that whilst the media is focused on a vaccine, the industry is taking a much more considered approach and there will not be a silver bullet. A wider insight is that the industry is still working normally on cancer cures and other unmet needs. For those who want to wade through it, here’s the link: https://www.roche.com/dam/jcr:e489e27b-f777-4781-b112-70c0bbfc4bdf/en/irp200422-a.pdf
Enjoy! GL to the genuine LTHers.
PS I haven't been reading the board today so couldn't give a monkeys what the CW's have been up to.

Hi Ahfam, we're almost a month in with the Aurora deal so only 8 months left on the original timescale. If it goes well we could get an update in a couple of months time. However, if its being fast tracked, a lot earlier. Either way we'll know in the next few months (not the 2 years that was quoted yesterday). TYK2 has now become the Joker in the pack as the Covid angle makes any prediction pure guesswork. As a sideline Roche are running a live webcast tomorrow for their Q1 Results. Could be an interesting insight as to where they see the market going. GLA

I agree Potnak. It would be nice for the rise to stick but it will all change with news on one or more of the molecules. I'm also looking at a sea of red on my watchlist so its not just SAR taking the damage.

The sell prices are all over the place which suggests the MM's spotted an opportunity with stop losses to secure some cheap shares while at the same time filling some big orders. Could be a flat day while the MM's play games. Unless we get another tweet.... GLA

Welcome back JT. I posted just after the Aurora RNS that I wondered if we'd been looking in the wrong direction for a licencee. Can't help wondering if that still might be the case although the TYK2 relevance may have shaken the global pharma tree. GLA

I wouldn't worry. I'm aware that a few down as 'sells' are in fact 'buys'. The LSE system is a bit binary!

Hi Kendy. We're talking about it (Covid) and they're tweeting about it. Draw your own conclusions.... GLA

Stoney, try this:
https://register.epo.org/documentView?number=EP.2019077118.W&documentId=id00000053542073

Nothing new but I think the relevance of some of the sections just took on a new perspective:

Overexpression of TYK2 kinase has been implicated in the development of some disease states. For example, elevated levels of TYK2 were found in patients suffering from
progressive pulmonary sarcoidosis (Schischmanoff etal., Sarcoidosis Vasc. Diffuse.,
2006, 23(2), 101-7).
Thus, the available evidence strongly indicates that TYK2 plays essential roles in both
innate and adaptive immunity. A lack of TYK2 expression manifests in the attenuated
signalling of multiple proinflammatory cytokines and a profound imbalance in T helper cell differentiation. Furthermore, evidence from genetic association studies supports that
TYK2 is a shared autoimmune disease susceptibility gene. Taken together, these
reasons suggest TYK2 as a target for the treatment of inflammatory and auto-immune diseases.
It's a big PDF document that is challenging to edit! Given the focus on both vaccines and therapeutics it will be interesting to see just how rapidly the bureaucrats get through the outstanding processes.

Stoney - I agree, additional protection but reading between the lines there are some specifics that point very clearly to relevance of TYK2 and Covid 19 conditions, not least 'progressive pulmonary sarcoidosis'. GLA

Krone - Great find! I'm well into the documentation and there's some serious mentions of 'pulmonary sarcoidosis' and how TYK2 interacts with the auto immune system. I think I see where they're going with this!!! However, the application is much broader in coverage with specific mentions of Lupus, psoriasis and RA. More to read.... and for those that want to join in the fun, here's the link to the core document:

https://register.epo.org/documentView?number=EP.2019077118.W&documentId=id00000053542073

Thanks Fadec - here's the version I'm looking at:

https://patents.google.com/patent/US20190350905A1/en?q=sareum&q=holdings&q=john+reader&before=priority:20200101&after=priority:20120101

Krone - There's a lot to read but it looks to me like 1801 (certainly not the molecule submitted to the US as 1802). Much talk about inflammatory diseases and cytokines. I'm going to read in detail but that could require a lot of coffee. Not going to stir the pot but interesting timing.

Hi Krone - Full of legal weasel words (!) and I can't work out which compound they are examining! Is this 1802?

Fadec - Correct on 1801. I'm watching 1802.