Member Info for RMM3383

Yep, unique in the sense that no one in their right mind would prescribe a drug with side effects if you had one that had no side effects. Get it right and the market is all ours. Overall, whilst I knew some of what was presented today there was plenty to be positive about - Covid 19 could be an opportunity and it won't necessarily delay progress (unless the world goes into full lockdown for 3 months plus). 1801/2 - all to play for and conversations are active. 737 - could yet be another rabbit to pop out of the hat in the next 6 months. FLT3 Aurora - rabbit out of the hat and maybe others waiting. A lot to get excited about even if we have to wait until the second half of the year. Quite happy for them to continue taking their reduced salaries.

Hybridan question is very revealing. Without black box warnings a huge opportunity. Current global market size is $30bn. Thoth - the chinese company will want to remain anonymous in case they fail. Loss of face and potential SP damage etc.

737 – They’ve had no further data since the middle of 2019! The combo with LDG is ongoing and in their words ‘this must be a good thing’. SP met with NG and they’re regularly in conversation with ICR but they would not be drawn on the content of the discussions however, SP apparently made it very clear to NG what SAR’s expectations were. I fear that NG simply shrugged his shoulders but at least the point was made! JR did say that the lung cancer model had produced ‘spectacular results’. Not exactly scientific and I take that as a positive!
US Dept of Defence – still no release of the report and when questioned they could offer no indication on timing of its release. We wait….
Key phrase of the call for me was from Tim – ‘We are talking to many licence partners’. Could be an auction, could be fence sitting but its not complacency IMHO. I think they want BIG money and are going to hold out. Question is – how big???
Q&A – Some good questions and only a few were bypassed (for sound reasons etc). Hybridan wanted to know how big the market was given the black box warnings on competitors products and Tim’s response was ‘we don’t have black box warnings’ so in effect the market is all theirs if they get it right! The question of significant shareholder value was raised and it was clear that 10 months ago it hinged on 737. This time round they are making no predictions but they are in a good position to get through the next 12 months.
That’s my transcript. I’ll now take questions!!

Tim and John took us through a sequence of slides (which I don’t have) but here’s a digest:
We now have a full and active pipeline of 4 products – 1801,1802, 737 and Aurora. The pipeline is ‘100% focused on TYK2’
TYK2 preclinical studies to conclude by end of 2020 – dosing and toxicity
Aurora – If the Chinese company can crack the solubility issue then another £900k within 9 months (however they later went on to say that if a solution was near they might extend by 1-2 months) The deal was signed this week (hence the delay in the half year report. My view (FWIW) is that the Chinese company (who have asked to have their name withheld) have looked at Aurora and with their existing expertise think they can crack it in 6 months. They’ve then given themselves 3 months leeway (because the Chinese do not like to lose face). Tim said they hope to be able to release the name of the company within the 9 month period if progress is made and milestones paid
737 – the combo trial of 737 and LDG is due to complete ‘shortly’ but they couldn’t give an indication of when they would see results. As the call progressed it was increasingly obvious that we are a passenger on this bus.
Cashflow – Operating expenses are down on last year. The salary deferral remains in place and won’t be lifted until there is a ‘major revenue event’
Covid 19 impact: They are clearly exploring this and ‘actively seeking grant funding’
1801/2 – Tim talked about the opportunity for ‘first in class’. BMS and Pfizer have versions but he was at pains to point out that ‘no one else’ has this. There was then talk about the benefits of a late deal including mention of Galapagos $300m upfront big milestones and big royalties etc). At this point I was slightly worried because I really don’t think SAR have the wherewithal to go beyond pre-clinical.
1801/2: both suitable for oral dosing. IND should end in 2020 and seeking commercial partners in 2020 (phew!). Biggest problem is toxicity because it doesn’t appear to have any limits so they’ve got to test at even higher levels to see if they can find a limit. Preparations already underway to do this. The synthetic manufacturing route is in place for 1801 and although not the case for 1802 the similarity of the molecules means there shouldn’t be a problem (unlike the one they had with Aurora).
1801 – Good efficacy for arthritis and no toxicity
1802 – Good efficacy in 4 types of cancer including kidney and colorectal. Positive results for monotherapy, combo and Anti PDL1. Now focusing on short term dosing and toxicity. In JR’s words ‘significant impact on pancreatic’.
Aurora – now off the back shelf and focusing on oral delivery. Tim even used the word ‘exciting’. In their words there are significant near term payments possible and they retain a share of the downstream revenue

I'm about to do it but I needed to make some tea!

Well worth a read:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2020/03/26/strategic-planning-in-biotech-during-a-pandemic-crisis/

CFP - I completely agree. I had Aurora down as NIL value. To get 50k upfront and a potential milestone is a win IMO. They now need to concentrate on TYK2. With regard to salaries it depends if anything else is in the pipeline. This is clearly not the significant value we were promised and the clock is still running down.

N4 have announced that they have started 'proof of concept' for their 'delivery system' to tackle Covid 19. SP has jumped 18% as a result. However, what is more interesting is the comment in their RNS that states that the laboratories they have approached have implemented a rota system to make sure that all projects underway can be completed and with no delays in addition to taking on the new work for Covid 19. Capacity is not the issue, efficacy is the key. GLA

Potnak - You are absolutely right. If there's one industry that is going to be working overtime over the next few months (possibly a year) its going to be pharma as they will be continuing the underlying business whilst adding the latest priorities for Corona.

Hi Krone - I'm not surprised that deals are still being done. Having worked in M&A nothing stops a deal if its viable, you work through everything. What is a little surprising is the muted response in terms of SP. This is $60m upfront with another $20m to come plus milestones of up to $400m per application and the Silence BoD have already announced how they are prioritising their pipeline as a result in the cash influx. However, I'd be very happy to hear SAR announce something similar....

Hi Fadec - This is an excellent article. Well found!

Hi Krone - From my perspective nothing has changed other than a potential delay to recruitment for clinical trials. Even then I doubt that trials for conditions with unmet needs will be shut down for more than a few months if that. In terms of value, TYK2 appears to have potential for uses against Corona and similar viruses which means the value goes up. The only way we'd lose value would be through a 'fire sale' and I don't see the need for that at this point in time. In terms of cash I think there may be other options in the pipeline given what the Government is doing for businesses. The UK can't afford to lose its R&D capability. IMO grants, tax benefits and cashflow will all be on the table over the next few weeks. The Chairman mentioned grants at the AGM so they're not unaware of the option. GLA

Hi Fadec - Good find. However, it would be nice to hear from SAR as to whether they are participating in any of the activity around Covid 19. Even a Tweet would be encouraging.....

Hi Krone - Good find. It gives pharmas with weak candidates the ideal opportunity to dump them and use corona as an excuse when in reality they knew they weren't strong prospects. We'll see a lot of this over the next few months and it won't just be in pharma. If Sierra use this as an excuse not to progress 737 then ICR will take it back (IMO) because they clearly see the potential judging by the latest paper they've recently put out. The problem is potentially with TYK2 in terms of recruitment for trials. However, cancer patients aren't going to stop dying in the next 3 months and clinicians and scientists will still want results. Things might slow down but they won't stop. All IMHO and GLA

Hi Aber. I’d be amazed if Gilead didn’t know what SAR have! And yes, Sierra need something other than Momo to prop up their SP.....

… Now at a 52 wk high. All we need them to do now is to announce good results from Remdesivir combined with TYK2. Now that would turn a nightmare into a very, very pleasant dream. GLA

Hi Workinginpharma - Not sure we can trust any of the figures as absolutes. India and Russia seem to be just as bad as China and who really knows what the true level of infection is. From my perspective nothing has changed in respect of SAR other than we've been marked down by the general malaise affecting the market. The volume is low which means people are hanging on and like you a lot of people 'feel' a NDA is in place. I'm relying on Fadec to keep finding interesting reports that help me pass my time in self-isolation!!!

is possibly not nigh! I'm sure that Utah will disagree given his last post and he will probably brand me a 'ramper' but the relentless bad news being put about by the media needs to be counterbalanced. According to certain sources other than the BBC we are close to drugs that will alleviate coronavirus symptoms (including Gilead's Remdesivir) meaning less pressure on the NHS and the need for ventilators. We are apparently also close to a test that will tell if you have developed immunity which means you can work, go to the pub etc with impunity and kick start the economy. Whilst the effects will be long lasting from 2-3 months of severe disruption there is light at the end of the tunnel. 3 months after the outbreak in Wu-Tang there have now been no new infections for 13 days and that's without the latest developments. From Sars perspective I'm happy for them to hold off on news until market volatility reduces. Alternatively if they've got great news then lets get it out there and ride the wave. Yes, its still going to mean a tough period of self isolation, testing etc for a few months but it's not the end of the world. All IMHO and GLA

Hi Krone - Not sure where you got that from. I'm seeing Sierra down 1% and Gilead up almost 4%.

SOG - I'm thinking that its more likely that Remdisivir and TYK2 might be a viable combo. I'm told that the Chinese have been clinically testing Rem and results are due in the next few weeks. If the results are positive then Gilead will make big money. Whether this will involve TYK2 is IMHO a long shot but I am wondering if Gilead are playing a strategic game both with 737 and TYK2. My understanding of Rem is that it is only really effective if administered before the severe symptoms emerge and once the patient is on a ventilator it has little benefit because the immune system goes into overdrive.... unless you have something that suppresses the immune system response...... Even the SKIL platform might have some relevance/value in these circumstances. GLA

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/remdesivir-surges-ahead-against-coronavirus/