Member Info for RMM3383

Looks suspiciously like someone built a position expecting news last week(!!) and is now bailing out judging by all the red. If so then that's very short term as immuno oncology does seem to be building a head of steam. Alternatively they may just be having to pay the bills from Xmas and booking their summer holiday.....

The 'cancer cure all' news was released on the BBC last night. It's far from being close to marketable as its at the very, very early lab stage in mice. It was described as having 'great potential' but at too early a stage to say whether it really was a cure for all cancers. Even if it is the silver bullet it will still need all the other elements of treatment to be effective. Link:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51182451

Interesting start to the article - 'the JP Morgan conference; it’s a gathering reserved for both the celebration and construction of deals'. GLA

Stoney - I do support the view that PR like that being put about by Nantkwest helps the case for us and TYK2 but can't help feeling that Soon-Shiong is blowing smoke. He's made a pile of money before and clearly thinks he can do it again but looking at his statement I do wonder if we/the market etc will be a little disappointed when the data is released. 1:11 responders is not the same as 10:10 mice and from what I can see the findings are very early stage. He's got a good rise out of it but I'm actually more interested in what is fuelling the Sierra rise. If it falls today then we know is was false speculation however the after hours trading seems to have sustained the rise. With regard to John and Tim being at the conference I suspect its more than a jolly and conversations are to be had with multiple parties. As I've said before, you don't take the product out of the shop window before its been sold. On a positive note I do feel a head of steam is building this week. GLA

In the short term patent status isn't going to drive value, we are already covered by the umbrella patent. It is however, very important in the medium to long term, especially if an acquisition was on the cards. Pharma's want the longest IP protection possible in order to recoup their investment and underpin future profits. From my perspective the main reason to split the patent is the timescale extension. Just been reading the latest RNS from Avacta and they are citing big deals for early stage stem cell companies ($600m and $950). Avacta also operate in the autoimmune sector and appear to be putting themselves on the radar for potential acquisition. I'm now wondering if this is an established strategy for small companies to whet the appetite of investors with comments implying 'look what we might be worth'. SAR did this a while back now and if anything the price tag should have gone up. I'd rather SAR released some compelling pre-clinical results instead of a patent update. All IMHO. GLA

Hi Fadec. Looks to me more like it was originally filed in the US in 2017, assignment was agreed in April 2019 and the latest document is in support of an amendment rather than a new patent?
https://patents.google.com/patent/US20190350905A1/en?q=sareum&q=holdings&q=john+reader&before=priority:20200101&after=priority:20120101

The pending status is hopefully months and not years!

According to the US Office the process was started in 2016 and the paper seems to be in support of the earlier application. If this was brand new then we'd be looking at years before a grant of patent. I get the impression that we're a lot further forward and tend to agree with Potnak that its a pivotal piece of the jigsaw. But who knows..... GLA

The inventor is John Reader but the assignee and applicant are both Sareum Holdings. I suspect that if they get approval then it simply extends the protection period. It would also create a precedent that if they can make the case for patent protection by indication then the value of their molecule goes up significantly.

I'm now also reading (sort of, because its a very technical read!) the US Patent Application Publication submitted on 21st Nov 2019 by John Reader in relation to T-Cell Leukaemia. This seems to relate to TYK2 but I can't work out whether this is in support of a new patent or unrelated. As it was only published late November I can't see a response much before the end of Feb. However, I'm open to feedback from wiser minds than mine.
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/0d/dd/2f/3d3a4cc7295498/US20190350905A1.pdf
Enjoy!

Just been doing a little searching on TYK2 patents and came across Cellzome (based in Cambridge). They had filed for a US patent on a TYK2 molecule in 2010. As of today their application status is showing as 'abandoned'. Interestingly they cite Sareum in their application.
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/a3/c3/e3/fe4c01693c2c3d/US20130143915A1.pdf
The plot thickens....

I do agree that its going to be a tense year and people will have to form their own views on likely outcomes. If we get a milestone and a licence then the SP will be well north of 1p IMO. My take on the deferment of salaries is different to Thoths. By taking a cut of 33% they will save less than 150k pa. IMHO it was a response to this board saying you have not delivered and you have to take some pain. They responded for which I applaud them. In addition I interpret the deferment as an indication that they will get the cash in the not too distant future and the salaries will be restored along with back payments. In agreement with Thoth I think that discussions are underway. If cashflow was really bad I'd be expecting a bigger cut in salaries and a move to options in place of cash. What they seem to be saying is that they have enough options and they're confident of getting cash, so take both! IMHO a takeover this year is unlikely but milestones and a TYK licence will be more than adequate. GLA

24 hours on and having had the night to think about it I've distilled my thoughts.
1: Good to see the full team - Directors and NED's. The Chairman played a very full role in both the formal requirements and during the Q&A. I thought they were as honest and open as they could be. Getting all the resolutions through was straightforward once issues had been aired.
2: 737, Sierra and CRT - As stated in the RNS further clarity has emerged. We already knew that Sierra were not obliged to pay milestones and that they were looking to fund by non-dilutive means. What was further explained was that they do intend to on-licence and have a timescale that could delay progress by up to 18 months (trials end in March, time to analyse 3-6 months, further deliberations with potential partners and due diligence etc and you can see how the timeline stretches). However, as the Chairman pointed out, this could change and it could be a lot quicker. My take on this, FWIW, is that we simply have to let it play out and its a done deal. I strongly suspect that Sierra do not want to hand this back. In the overall scheme of things I now feel that its a sideshow to the main event, which is....
3: TYK2 - First of all, the patent issue is a non-issue. SAR hold the headline patent so no one is going to steal it. The additional patent would add value only if one party acquired 1801 and another acquired 1802. If one party wants both then its not an issue. However, the BoD are rightly pursuing the appeal and in JR's words the legal team are optimistic (but they would say that because they're getting paid!). The focus of the BoD is to get TYK2 off the starting blocks and into trials. From the cash position and comments around 'non-dilutive funding' its clear they cant afford to do this and their objective is to get a partner. My view, and again FWIW, I think they are working hard to deliver and avoid a placing. The 33% deferred salaries is an indication of their confidence in getting something away and I don't think they would have done this without a solution in sight!
4: SKIL and Aurora - not even a sideshow now. So lets leave them to gather dust.
5: Overall: I didn't feel that anything was withheld that they could have told us about. There are clearly things at play that are covered by NDA's etc and in regard to the US DoD and lupus, whilst the data may be being withheld its available for SAR to use in any discussions, which is far from being a block to progress.
6: Timescales: The great unknown but if we don't get significant news next year I will be very surprised and I suspect early to late Q2 would not be unreasonable
7: Value: I don't think we'll be sold short and the SP nonsense of yesterday is exactly that. The content of the RNS and the outcomes from the AGM do not support a drop so sit tight
8: The Team: Time to give them some room. They have clearly responded to comments on this board for which we should acknowledge their efforts. The penny has dropped! GLA

Overall: sit tight, keep calm and don’t panic!

Just to clarify - Dewe Rogerson is not the Chairman of SAR! The AGM was held at the offices of Citigate Dewe Rogerson. Stephen Parker chaired the meeting and (IMO) spoke succinctly. Now to distil my thoughts..

Krone - I'm not sure they're awake yet....

Whatever is behind this. its given us something to talk about which is more than SAR have done!

Unless they pull something out of the bag I can't see 5 & 6 going through. The others are essentially administrative - 3 & 4 are purely admin but 1 & 2 will come in for debate. So they've been warned.... If they're not prepared then we will know how little regard they have for us. Previous posters on this board have raised the spectre of a SP crash. If they are that worried then they should come to the AGM and vote against us. We've seen no improvement in investor value for over 3 years and a short term hit while new blood is installed won't be catastrophic, in fact the market may well react positively if they see it was a new, more aggressive approach to commercialisation. All IMO and GLA. The battle lines have been drawn....

Not sure that Quoted Data says anything that we don't already know. Their revision in values has no bearing on the SP as previous valuations have never been realised and this one changes nothing IMO. Should the BoD realise anything like the figures they quoted in the RNS a year ago then the estimates of £20-30m will be so far adrift as to make them nothing more than a sideshow. Over the past couple of days we've seen a little attempt at a P&D. Alternatively if this was a move by Strand to shore up the board then it was pathetic. In terms of the volume it will have done very little for the MM's Xmas present list so not a lot to get over excited about. With 4 working days to the AGM I detect that the steam in the pressure cooker is reaching critical and as Thoth predicts 'its about to blow'! But probably not in the way he hopes..... 12 weeks to get the data sorted on 737 and spark the milestones or 12 months to wait for the licence to come back (according to QD). I'd be very surprised if either timescale is correct given the lack of urgency in both the Sierra and Cambridge camps. Tomorrow's another day. Red or Blue? Toss a coin....

Hi Krone - I share your cynicism. Despite the recent rise the SP is still almost 50% below where it was in April and 60% down on where it was 3 years ago.... We still have a long way to go and the AGM is just a week away. Thoth may be right but I remain unconvinced we'll see anything significant this side of Xmas. On a positive note I would be very happy to see the SP go up 5% a day for the next few weeks.....

Afham - True, AIM is very 'predictable' in this sense. I did wonder if the NOMAD had been busy behind the scenes trying to take the SP into territory that would appease the wrath of the LTH's but looking at the trend I suspect it's just slow revaluation before bigger news. In this sense its good because I'd like to see a spike from a higher base.