Member Info for RMM3383

I don't think NG gives a monkey's about the Sierra SP. The money's in the bank and he's funded until 2022. More to the point is the comments he made about 737. As pointed out by others, 737 was always going to be a combo so he's being disingenuous at best but more likely setting the scene for other discussions (want's to retain the rights to 737 but wants others to pay for it and has no intention of honouring the milestones which means he also keeps the residual money already in the bank prior to the latest deals). As Thoth pointed out yesterday his strategy makes no sense in terms of returning value to his investors. There's clearly a different play underway and I just hope that CRT don't fall into his trap. Let's now focus on TYK2 and return some value to the beleaguered SAR investor. After two days of activity and small rises we open the day with...nothing. Looks increasingly as if we've had a little pump and dump. Either that or someone overseas has built a little stake (I note that the buys tended to fizzle out after midday which would fit with an Asia based investor). Some commercial news would be welcome. All IMHO and GLA.

Ripley - I'm wondering if Lady Penelope's chauffeur has been speaking to his old mates at Silence? They've gone from 44p to 410p in 6 months at a steady rate and the price started moving well before news. I'd be very happy if we put on a steady 5% per day for the next couple of months.....

Zylo - The AGM - Its in my diary and unlike last year I'll be in the country. Going to make a day of it!!!

LSE finally caught up with the RNS. 10.00 at Citigate on the 17th. See you guys there!! Just under 4 weeks for them to release some news that will blunt the knives.....

Fingers crossed that its not just a 'pump & dump'.

As Thoth once said, if they pull off a deal we won't begrudge them their options, salaries etc but to reinforce what ColdFish posted earlier... just get on with it!

13 trades and its not even 8.30. I'm wondering if we have an institution building a position. Presumably when you refer to the Kraken you're talking about Parker??

Fadec - I'm not sure they're that bothered about their SP anymore. They can either consolidate or drop down a tier on the NASDAQ. Probably the latter as consolidation costs money!

Thoth:
a: Agreed the money long term is in TYK2. Licensing? I worry about the BoD's capabilities in this respect
b: Agreed and it should be providing cashflow. Unfortunately it isn't.
c: Agreed. I don't think CPF will apply pressure for a return of the licence until the middle of 2020 assuming no milestones are paid, development grinds to a halt despite the molecule proving it has potential and Sierra show no appetite for progression
d: Not sure. I think CPF have agreed some sort of terms with Sierra but they may be 'verbal' which gets SAR around the problem of not releasing information
e: If Sierra don't progress 737 then CPF will almost certainly have to take it back but this means the timescale for any return goes out a long way. Highly unlikely that this will be good for SAR's cashflow in the short term. Jam tomorrow....
f: TYK2 - Why the delay? Could be good, could be bad.... Whichever way we should be told. As usual we're not.
On a positive, the BoD must be aware that if they don't provide some answers the AGM is going to be a nightmare for them. They don't have institutions to block PI's voting against them so if they expect to release an RNS with 'All resolutions passed' then they'll need to get busy. GLA

An ideal opportunity for CPF to clarify/conclude the position with Sierra and update the SAR BoD. They (SAR) then have a month to agree what they are going to tell us at the AGM, maybe even release an RNS on the outcome. One thing is for sure and that is that if we hear nothing then we can assume NG has stuffed us. Sierra now have the funds to see Mome, 737 and 141 through to the next stages. If they aren't prepared to move ahead on 737 then I for one will be very suspicious as to what they are really up to and I doubt it will be in our interest. Much has been said about CPF's ability to run the negotiations but lets be honest, Sierra haven't paid up and there's nothing concrete being said (by CPF or SAR) to say they will pay up in the near future. Sierra have made it quite clear they want to renegotiate the milestones and they've proven with Gilead that they are quite capable of doing this. I doubt very much that CPF want 737 back and I strongly suspect that a deal has already been cut between CPF and Sierra. We're now close to the position we were in a year ago with SAR sitting on information they can't or won't release, the need for cash starting to loom and a SP that's been badly beaten up and going nowhere due to lack of commercial news. Looking at the FT's financials on SAR, Tim and John cost £234k each pa to keep in position plus another £100k+ for the NEDS. That's just under £600k on people costs alone for a company now worth £10m, with no income stream and 15 years of jam tomorrow. The science may be great, the stars might be aligned etc etc but without commercial nouse its all pointless. 4 weeks to get your act together SAR and prove you have it in you. GLA and all the above in my grumpy opinion.

Thoth - When the Aurora news hit the media it created an expectation that SAR would monetise the molecule. Nothing happened so now the market looks at 737 and TYK2 through jaundiced eyes. So far the BoD and NED's have failed to turn best in class into best in market. That may sound very subtle but its a world or difference in financial terms.

Aber - I quite agree, the apparent lack of urgency is worrying. That's a big block of news from AZ on Lupus (well done Krone) yet still no sign of results from SAR that were promised 'in the near future'. Message to Citigate - 'Get onto SAR and tell them there's an opportunity to piggyback on AZ's news'. Meanwhile in the absence of substantive news the MM's continue to p*** about with the spread in an attempt to make a market. AGM now just over a month away....

Aber - I need to check this out but if they have received offers and not put them to the investors then we may have grounds for a vote of no confidence at the AGM. I suspect that verbal offers may have been bandied around and not met expectations which means that nothing formal has been logged so they have a get out of jail free card.

Personally I was quite relieved to wake up and find that SAR had not released an RNS today. Fridays are generally reserved for bad news. I remain wary that this deal is good news in the short term. In Gilead's shoes and assuming they are interested in 737 (big if) I would have told Sierra to get the milestones either delayed or revised so that they are more back end loaded (extends the timescale and reduces the risk). Unfortunately for us I fear that Gilead have been quite clever and NG found himself between a rock and hard place only to have Gilead rescue him. However, both NASDAQ and AIM do not see this as good in the short term. I'm now pretty sure that NG will allow Sierra to fall out of NASDAQ in January and into Capital Markets. They've got a stash of money so why bother to prop up the SP? The worry now is that CRT (who almost certainly are running negotiations with Sierra have sold out for a long term gain in the hope that this will get to market without them incurring further expense. SAR have probably been an expecting party but contributed very little). The real issue and what may recover the SAR SP is TYK2. Gilead may have their eye on 737 and possibly even TYK2 but their strategy appears to be to get things on the cheap. Fortunately for us we are not tied to CRT or Sierra to get TYK2 licenced and doing a deal with Gilead on TYK2 could be quite convoluted (although I've seen worse). For now I want to see progress on 1801/2 as judging by the AACR poster if we cant' generate interest now then its a steady slide for the SP until something positive happens with 737 and my expectation (for what it's worth) is that any milestones are some time away. Given the complexity of what is emerging I fear that the SAR team is not up to the job and need better advisors. Either that or take whatever is on the table (if anything) and get out. If you've been screwed once you don't hang around to see if it will happen again. At the end of the day its all speculation but I'm interested to see what other readers think on this (positive and negative). GLA

Don’t bank on the milestones yet. Gilead may be interested in 737 and Momo is the stalking horse/smoke screen. If Sierra have already done a deal with CRT this may be the trigger that got Sierra off the hook with the milestone due to Gilead. Sierra now have the cash to go ahead with Momo, Gilead now on licence from Sierra without having to pay milestones that have been renegotiated and SAR/CRT are stuffed in the short term. I might be paranoid but......

Krone - I think you have already clarified Dr Parkers role! Perhaps we should have a whip round to mark his departure? However, on the basis that under his strategic guidance the SP has only gone down I suspect that people will want to take out rather than put in. For me there are two issues here: Firstly the promise of value tomorrow cannot go on forever. Secondly, if these molecules are as good as they say then they should be made available to those suffering asap. What is not acceptable in both cases is delay through boardroom politics.

Advance warning of questions: I'm going to give the SAR BoD 6 weeks notice of the questions I'll be asking at the AGM. Hopefully that's long enough for them to prepare some answers.
1: In the light of Sierra's declared intention to focus their attention and finances on Momelotenib what has been agreed with Sierra by yourselves and CRT in respect of unpaid and future milestones and ongoing development of SRA737?
2: As milestones from Sierra now appear to be a distant prospect and nothing has been seen of a TYK2 licence agreement how confident are you that significant value can be returned to investors in the next 4 months? [Note to BoD - a significant dilution to fund ongoing costs is not an increase in value]
Unlike Thoth I don't favour the return of the licence. IMHO it should be sold on. We should also push for TYK2 to be licenced or sold. Both have potential that commands value. Holding on to them significantly increases the risk of failure. If you read all the caveats and mitigation statements in Sierra's Q10 you quickly realise just how difficult it is to get a drug approved and commercialised. A sensible price now would realise significant value for all investors. The saga of jam tomorrow reminds me of hard earned commercial experience. The number of times I was told 'Do this little project for us at a knockdown price and there's a much bigger project in the pipeline for you'. The bigger project never, ever materialised. Talk of fast track blockbuster drugs is the stuff of dreams and for SAR is many years down a difficult road. GLA, we're going to need it.

Utah- The Q10 states that they have enough cash to continue operations for at least 12 months. Paying milestones is another thing. Having now read the entire Q10 there are a lot of risk mitigation statements and an interesting statement on the potential delisting from Nasdaq. Jan 13 2020 is when the first 180 days expires. If they haven’t raised the SP above $1 for 10 consecutive days by then the option is to transfer to Nasdaq Capital Markets (providing they meet the requirements) which gives them another 180 days. Bearing in mind that two senior managers have bought shares they must believe that they can recover the company within the timescales. The next 3 months are going to be nervous. GLA

Thoth - that sounds almost contradictory. On the one hand they are reducing spend on 737 while they market it to other parties whilst on the other hand they imply they want to develop it but only if they can raise funds or renegotiate the milestones. Given the latest abstract found by Krone I find it hard to believe that Sierra can't find a partner. In the short term this seems to mean that a milestone could be a long way off while NG plays his little games. For SAR its even more important now to get Tyk2 off the blocks.

Looks to me as if Sierra are grinding towards a deal on 737. If you were negotiating a deal on something you wouldn't spend money that can't be recouped so the decrease in spend was to be expected. However, the paltry 3.8% SP rise for Sierra yesterday shows that the market has little regard for the content of the report. I wouldn't be surprised to see their SP hit a new low today. The fact that they've published a little earlier than anticipated (I expected it on Thursday) suggests that it was put together a while ago to get it out of the way. There's not really a lot of news just comments on the financial ups and downs. From our perspective I think (and only my opinion) that they will on-licence if at all possible as it saves face and will jack up their SP. They won't want to hand it back because it makes them look inept and they need a fallback position if Momelotenib fails to deliver. NG is behaving true to character - all mouth when things go well and then clams up when the tide turns. As soon as he gets a deal he'll be all mouth again and raising the middle finger to the analysts and market. The only issue for me is timing and currently I think it will be 2020 for a deal. NG needs this sooner rather than later otherwise his SP will hit the $0.1 territory as the P3 Mome trial will not come to his rescue in time. More likely Q1 2020 than Q4 2019 in my view. Meanwhile I note that the response from SAR is silence. A RNS noting the content and why it changes nothing would have been my expectation if the BoD and NED's were on the ball. As a result I anticipate a red day for the SAR SP as the MM's penalise the SP for yet another lack of milestone news. And just in case they've forgotten... we're still waiting on the Lupus news.