Member Info for RMM3383

Thoth has the details of all of us who put our shares forward in August. It wouldn't be difficult to put out a message to all those who supported the call for an EGM and see what the appetite really is. However, my experience is that when it comes down to real action appetites wain, especially if the company appears to give some ground. In the meantime I'm talking to people I know in the NED community. There are other ways to bring pressure to bear without resorting to an EGM. From my point of view an EGM is a bit of a blunt weapon and it certainly isn't my intention to drag the company down. Changing just one person in the boardroom can make a huge difference to a company's profile.

Hi Aber - Yep, the value of any investment can go up or down.... and at the moment I'm coal mining!!

My personal timetable was always to hope for movement in the SP in September as August tends to be a treading water month for deals etc. If things aren't picking up by the 27th then Monday 30th is going to be a day of action. Tick tock. Only 14 working days....

Krone - Parker is spread too thin and as you rightly point out, unfocused. We either need a new Chairman who is commercial, targeted and connected or a Business Development Director with experience of monetising a biotech product. One or the other would do the trick but absence of both spells trouble.

Thoth - I've written before on the SLN vs SAR comparisons and whilst I don't wish to be seen as a witch hunter in respect of Parker there are real lessons to be learned from SLN. They appointed a new Chairman in April 2019 and a Head of Business Development in May this year. The current CEO was appointed in July 18 and oversaw the departure of Parker (who was initially Chairman and then a NED during which time, as you rightly point out, the SP languished). Since Mid June this year their SP has risen steadily. Compared with SLN there is a huge gap in the SAR teams capabilities - someone with real commercial clout and who understands how to talk to the markets. Some people on this board have misunderstood my request for better management of the SP. It's not just about releasing RNS's its about what is said to analysts and market makers behind the scenes and clearly very little is being done in this respect. More is done on this board to inform the MM's than is done by SAR and that's a damning indictment of the team. As pointed out , SAR is beyond discovery its all about commercialisation so get someone on board who understands how to do it. A potential deal in the back pocket at some point in the future is worthless if your competitor eats your breakfast while you were booking lunch!

Krone - Without a major change in the BoD's strategy to market SAR I cannot see how an EGM can be avoided. What the BoD seem to fundamentally fail to understand is that even if you have a deal in your back pocket that could add significant value at some point in the future it is far from acceptable to allow the SP to fall to levels such as we have. Jam tomorrow does not mean you allow today's bread and butter to go mouldy!

I have to thank you guys (Stoney, Fadec, Thoth etc) for the stream of information that you are uncovering and the insight it presents. Compare this with the complete lack of out put from SAR in this respect and I have to say that I am far from relaxed. It wouldn't be the first time in history that the best product fails to take the market by storm. I will certainly not be happy if the BoD are complaining in the not too distant future that unfortunately they didn't understand that best in class does not mean best in market. Get a grip SAR and start to market your wares! Publishing information as put out by Fadec, Stoney et all will not compromise any NDA that might be in place and it will support the SP. It's just laziness.

Basically they've put Aurora in the THTD file (Too Hard To Do) and left it there! Nil value so no update......

If there's no news by the middle of December and the SP is still languishing there will be a bumper turn out for the AGM. With regard to the action group, Thoth already has the names and contact details of 20% of the shareholding. Non-performance by the BoD over the next few months and it will be bloody. Without institutions to block vote the PI's into submission the mgt and NED's are very vulnerable. Tick, tock....

For what its worth, today is the last working day before Thoth’s deadline on a response from the BoD. To head us off at the pass we had the Trading Statement on Tuesday which provoked much debate and an air of positivity. The threat of the EGM looked to have been avoided. However, I’ve gone back and looked at what Thoth asked for (in terms of points shared on this board) and its far from the substantive update that was requested. On balance I feel they issued a little more insight on what’s going on with 737 and TYK2 but the bulk of the update was what we already knew. The key question (for me) is the one posed by Thoth – ‘What is the working capital achieving?’ As already noted on this board we did not get a cashflow forecast so there’s no way to assess what they are really up to, how the money is being spent, when it runs out and what the benefits are likely to be. Looking at the Sareum website news section the output is woeful for the money spent. The last 2 years look like the company has simply been treading water. Whilst the appetite for an EGM might have waned I don’t see the AGM being anything other than bloody unless we see steady newsflow and significant improvement in the SP. If the likes of Reneuron can put on steady growth over 2 months that triples their SP and Silence Therapeutics can improve their SP 5 fold, both without bombshell news then getting SAR back to 1p should be a no brainer by Xmas. I suspect that both Reneuron and Silence have active ‘behind the scenes’ programmes with the brokers. Bear in mind that Reneuron also suffered from the Woodford saga yet weathered the storm and continues to grow. Owen is a NED at Reneuron and Parker was at Silence. Both should be advising TM on how to rebuild the SP. So, in reality the EGM is postponed, the SP languishes at less than half of what it was a year ago despite no bad news on TYK2 and neutral news on 737 (no clinical failure but missed milestone). On this basis I have to ask what we’ve achieved? For one, I remain unhappy. In the meantime I continue to explore some of the strategic options open to SAR. I hope they are doing the same. As usual, all IMHO and GLA.

Just done some digging on Tullock and all his recent stuff is on placings and fundraising so I think we get the idea what might be coming at some point later this year...… You probably didn't see the tweet on SAR because he wouldn't have spelt it correctly. I'm now reverting to my original view that Strand were brought in to deal with unruly PI's and handle another placing.

Just had a little senior moment and wondered how SAR came across Strand Hanson. The lead advisor on the SAR account is Richard Tullock, formerly of ING Barings. ING Barings is where Parker used to work many years ago. It may be just coincidence but has Parker actually done something? Tullock majors on fundraising and disposals so 50/50 what he's up to.

Potnak - I concur and would hope that we would be 'bought' within 2 years. Any sale of the business would need SKIL to cover the patents but as to value in the platform, I doubt there are any big pharma's out there who would place significant value on it. In the BoD's position I would be saying - 'Sensible price for TYK2 and we'll throw in SKIL'. I really can't see TM and JR wanting to go through the discovery route again.

Interesting how the valuation and expectations change. A while back I speculated that Thoths 28p was close to my estimates but that I would not surprised to see any deal max out at 16p after risk discounting. In reality I would be very happy with 8p. 4p would see me happy but disappointed. Anything under 3p would be serious disappointment. So far neither 737 nor TYK2 have failed. Aurora is clearly going nowhere (I'd imagine TM has said privately that any offer would be considered as currently it has no value). Like Thoth I think SKIL has done its job and I can't see a Pharma placing any real value on it. My estimates are therefore based purely on 737 and TYK2. A 10 bagger from here would be a steal for any buyer of SAR. Getting to 3p should only be a staging point in my opinion. I still live in hope that an NDA is in place (quite likely) but the prospect of imminent news to get us to 3p remains distant given what we know about Sierra's dire SP and the lack of detailed feedback on TYK2. For SAR to take TYK2 into clinical is nothing short of a dream even with milestone payments and the strategy must be to get a licencee/partner (and one this time that has deep pockets). For what its worth I wish I could afford to make the most of the absurdly low current SP but I'm already invested. Getting back to 1p would be very helpful but we should expect more. Believe in the science, DYOR and maintain pressure on the BoD to perform is my mantra. All IMHO and GLA

Mathsprof - Completely agree that we have a maximum of 6 months cash. On this basis they will have to go for another raise, possibly in November because if they wait until after the AGM the SP could be well below where we are. My fear is that they will attempt a consolidation followed by a raise. A 100:1 consolidation would put the SP at 36p but more importantly reduces the shares in circulation to 31m at which point the issue of 2m new shares would raise 800k. From a PR perspective this is a lot more attractive than trying to raise 800k by issuing another 250m shares (which I suspect they would be lucky to get away at 0.3p). Bear in mind that Owen is a NED at two companies that have been through consolidations. By appointing the new NOMAD we also have an organisation that will no doubt have claimed that they can raise money in spite of awkward shareholders. Unless TM has a deal in his back pocket I don't see how they can avoid the cash crisis as Sierra have their focus elsewhere and sufficient buffers in the legalise of the licence to allow them to do very little for the next 6-9 months. Prepare for stormy waters in my opinion (and that's all it is at the moment). GLA

Sorry - should have read ' 'if they can't find a partner....'

So this is their response to the threat of an EGM? A reiteration of what we effectively already knew with some added context in the form of 'we continue to attract interest from international pharmaceutical companies' and with regard to 737 'the company is committed to keeping the market updated when and as it can'. The much needed update on TYK2 sidesteps most of what Thoth asked for but more worryingly the in human trials have slipped to the back end of 2020 and are dependent on financing. In other words if they can find a partner/licencee then its stuffed. Which we already knew.... Without income from the unpaid milestones the programme is going nowhere. My gut tells me we should prepare for another dilution which will be positioned to investors new and old as a gun to the head - 'either fund us or timescales stretch out even further/we fail to get TYK2 underway'. What I can't square is how on earth TM thought he was going to return significant value to shareholders over the next 12 (now 9 months). I'd love to believe that much is being withheld due to an NDA but this has all the hallmarks of a company plodding along, head in the sand, burning up resources and hoping that a nice pharma will eventually see the value and make them a generous offer. One big omission - 'Our new NED's and dedicated Chairman have contributed significantly to our progress by...……….' I'll re read the statement later today but in the meantime I've got some paint drying that I need to keep an eye on. All IMHO.

Utah - I don't think the Nomad has admin access to LSE. Any removal would have to be done by the LSE Administrator. I'm sure they could ask but there would have to be a good reason to delete something that wasn't profane but just negative. A couple of my posts never made it to the board simply because LSE's software crashed.

Malbrun - interesting article;

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8486596/Strand-Hanson-chief-has-found-a-lucrative-path-through-Aims-shark-infested-waters.html

The key statement for me is:

Where Strand Hanson's chief executive does think there are failures with the market is in the power of chatrooms to force disclosures. Without them, he suggests, Aim might have avoided examples of energy explorers disclosing oil in their wells, only to admit days later that it's water. "The ability, through anonymity, to force companies to announce denials or confirmations of rumours is inappropriate. You might strike what you think is a great oil find, but you have to test it, analyse it, grade it – but if someone spreads a rumour, quite often a company's hand is forced

The message is clear - they see us (shareholders) as a problem rather than a responsibility, we are the problem not the BoD. Tim, you're in a hole, keep digging and you'll end up in South Africa where Strand appear to have a bunker.

No matter how I look at this I'm struggling to put a positive spin on this appointment. The lead partner is a civil engineer with a background in fundraising. They've released the news on a Friday which tells me they expected the market to react badly to this. No change so far but the day is young.... I suspect that they approached the old NOMAD with a request to raise more funds at which point the advisor started laughing. The new Advisor sees the opportunity to charge exorbitant fees and hopes their 'fresh' approach will be enough to prise money out of investors unfamiliar with the previous disastrous (for the investor) offerings. The only positive aspect I can see is with James Dance who has a Biochem background and specialises in financial modelling and 'valuations'. Tenuous but time to grasp at straws. Their analyst has a degree in chemical engineering which they might have sold to SAR as someone who can help them 'manufacture a molecule or two'. Yes, I know, its desperate. If this really is the best they can do then the end of August and an EGM cannot come soon enough. I still believe we have the science but its being p***** away. Just another RNS without management context which provides more fuel for negative speculation. Come on Tim, ignore Parker and get to work as a CEO.