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I'm hoping that they are already engaging with 'interested parties' and getting the data out to potential licencees. If its as good as suggested then there's no reason to wait until the end of the month. I'm quietly optimistic.

Thanks Krone. Plenty of time to get back from the city, have dinner and wait.....

Thanks Fadec - might be that we have to wait until the US wakes up!

Anyone know where to find the abstracts on Tyk2? Due to be published today but nothing on the SAR or AACR websites.

Oh dear. Looks like my forecast of 0.32 has arrived sooner than expected. Having reflected on this mornings presentation I think the BoD will regard it as a job well done. They've headed off an EGM and effectively bought themselves 12 months. However, I think even they realise that if they don't deliver a deal within the next 12 months and Sierra drag their heals over 737 then its effectively game over. Tim is clearly not happy presenting pre-prepared content and was much more effusive during the Q&A session even if he did side step the question on why Strand Hanson were appointed. In terms of timescales, the 12-24 months is my doing as I don't see how they can do a deal on TYK2 when in reality its just not far enough along the preclinical scale. With regard to other timings the Lupus results are 'in the near future' and I'm really not sure why some of these things are taking so long. Finally Tim clearly thought they had the skills to negotiate a good deal within the team. I'd say that the jury is out on that one and for one I'd like to see someone on the BoD who can really drive the commercialisation of the pipeline. Wouldn't it be nice if they surprised us in time for Xmas? Last years run up to and after the AGM has not left a good taste in my mouth and I'd really like to think they can turn this round. 4 trades today so far tells me there's just no interest anymore in what they are saying which is a shame because I suspect that underneath the veneer there's probably some hidden value. As Potnak says, two years ago we would have got excited..... still there's tomorrows abstracts to look forward to.....

So, Q&A session was fairly innocuous, mainly because the run through of the results didn't reveal anything that could be challenged. Gut feel suggests that conversations with licencing partners are underway but a conclusion could be some way off. Some clarity around the manufacture of 1801/2 so doesn't look as if we have the same problems as Aurora (which has now clearly been sidelined if not dumped). I get the impression that they would like/prefer to do a single deal on TYK2 but to get value of any sort we need to get to the end of pre-clinical if not P1 and that won't be before July 2020 so Tim's significant value in 12 months (which we are halfway through) won't happen. Bottom line at the moment is that a lot is hanging on Sierra pulling off their non-dilutive deal. On a positive note, Dr Parker said that this type of Q&A interaction with shareholders would continue so hopefully we'll get more interaction as we go forward. However, the SP continues to languish so we now need some positive commercial news to underpin the science. I'm now off to digest over a strong coffee!!

On first read I thought it was a reasonable summary with some interesting little additions to what we already know. On digesting the content I've come to the conclusion that despite wishful thinking there is no NDA in place and any discussions with the large pharmas are at very early stages ('come back when you've got something interesting to show us').Timelines are clearly slipping and Tim's 'significant growth in the next 12 months' looks much more like 12-24 months from now. Even if Sierra can pull off a deal on 737 there's no guarantee that the overdue milestones will land before the business runs out of cash. An awful lot can happen in 24 months (good and bad) but a prudent mgt team should be looking at an early exit for a sensible price, so I'm with ColdFish on this one. In addition I'm not expecting much from tomorrow's abstracts other than 'look what might be possible' with no impact on the SP. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see 0.32 back on the board.

The session on Tuesday is billed to go over the results for the last accounting year and advise on plans for the forthcoming year. Anything of commercial importance and likely to impact the SP will require a RNS. Furthermore if the Q&A session allows questions on the following days poster/data then any answers will have needed to be preceded by a RNS if they are likely to impact the SP. If the BoD allow questions on this topic without a RNS then we know that the data has no commercial impact which means it will be what we already know or an academic paper with no immediate relevance to the financial position of the company. If the BoD refuse to answer questions on the topic then we know there is something sensitive in the data (good or bad but unlikely to be indifferent). My overriding concern is that they have timed the Q&A session in such a way that they can hide behind the smoke screen of the data not being in the public domain so they can say 'no comment' and avoid answering awkward questions. The timing does not fill me with confidence that the BoD are being honest with us. However, I hope that I am wrong and a RNS at 7.00 on Tuesday allays my fears. All the above IMHO and GLA.

Thoth - I dared to mention on Monday that I thought the timing of the results and Q&A were at odds only to get shot down!
I really don't get why you would run a Q&A session the day before you release data (although I have my suspicions and they include Strand Hanson).

Based on the volume traded its hardly a collapse and to blame PI's who expect the BoD to do more seems to be pointing the finger in the wrong direction. Krone's extract says its all 'the various changes that we have slowly been putting into place'. There's simply no sense of urgency. To talk about sub-committees in a company of 5 is just nonsense. Today's drop is due to no liquidity in the shares. If the company had a higher profile the SP would still be volatile but at a higher level. So the BoD and NEDs are working very hard? As Thoth says, where's the evidence? The Q&A session next Tuesday is going to be lively!!!

Stoney - My gripe is with the BoD. We seem to do more on this board to promote SAR than the company does. Lots of positive findings etc but the SP languishes. I'm with Thoth in that I think Sierra will on licence 737 mainly because they don't have the deep pockets to see this through in all indications etc. NG will then use the opportunity to focus on his baby. I might be wrong. With regard to TYK2, we just never seem to get the full picture. It's like getting blood out of a stone. As stated I'm worried that what we will get on the 16th is good news but with no commercial follow up. Should I sell up? My money was always on the molecules and not the team but if the team can't monetise them then we've got a dud. At the moment I'm still making my mind up on the molecules and I've not seen anything yet to make me pack my bags, either for a holiday paid for by SAR or to join the queue for the escape chute!

Stoney - I understand the requirements for the AACR poster but the same could be said for when Sierra posted their findings on 737. In their own words 'This is 737's day'. Subsequently they have so far failed to progress it, 'postponed' the milestone payments, the market has lost faith in mgt and currently it's in limbo. All the talk about fast tracking anogenital is just speculation. I fear that the results on TYK2 will be good enough to justify a poster at the AACR and then...… silence. The SP will drop back to 0.3 and we'll be kept in the dark like mushrooms until another dilution is sprung upon us. I may be wrong but the stars are not aligned in my world. GLA as always. I'm now focused on preparation for the AGM.

Webstar - They released a Trading Update in August and a Research Update in September. This is not going to be a forward looking statement but a review of what has happened in the past. Unless of course they want to fanfare the TYK2 abstracts??? If they refuse to answer questions on TYK2 then expect an SP fall on the 16th around lunchtime when the analysts get back to their desks.

They will be hoping that PI's will call in to vent their spleen, this will give them an opportunity for them to pretend to listen, they will promise to continue to do whatever it is they are doing and having done that they think they will have averted an EGM/Shareholder revolt. They are doing it the day before the TYK2 abstracts are released which means they can hide behind the get out of jail card of not being able to disclose or discuss something that is not already in the public domain. I am now concerned that the abstracts to be released on the 16th are not great news otherwise you'd position the results presentation as an opportunity for back slapping. This has all the hallmarks of PI manipulation to protect the position of the BoD and NEDs who are supposedly working in our best interest.

Fadec - You are quite correct, Investors are a lazy bunch but compared to the MM's etc.... MM's and their analysts look for blindingly good data or blindingly bad. If its indifferent they tend to put it with the blindingly bad. RENE's RNS yesterday was a classic example of how not to do it - put a table of results out and let people draw their own conclusions! The poster needs to be technical but the brief to the PR company needs to draw out the key points and what they mean. If the RNS is just a cut and paste of the poster we won't get the response the data deserves and it should not be left to the experts (not me) on this board to interpret it on their behalf.

Interesting movements yesterday in a number of stocks I watch. SAR could/should learn from some of the mistakes made. RENE was punished yesterday for presenting good results badly. Mr Owen please note! MTFB is all over the place and being played by the MM's as management fails to get a clear message across (possibly on purpose) and PI's resort to wishful thinking (not that were not averse to doing the same thing here in the absence of hard facts). Key point is that whatever is released on the 16th needs to be intelligible to the investment community not a high brow academic treatment that leaves readers in some sort of limbo as to what the results/data really mean. Over to you Tim....

Stoney - Thank you for putting together the overview. Having been here for a few years its easy to forget the progress that has been made. Reading through it there are two themes/conclusions that struck me. 1: These compounds have such a broad range of applications I can't see how a small company of two people can possibly pursue all the opportunities effectively. 2: The speed of development/progress does seem to have dropped off over the last 18-24 months. On this basis it would make good sense if the entire programme was bought out by a large pharma with deep pockets. It would give the compounds the infrastructure needed to get them to market and most importantly establish whether these compounds can address some serious medical conditions with unmet needs. However, we should not be deluded into thinking that there aren't other programmes that on paper look just as promising. Which confirms to me that good as the science might be the key skil (intended pun!) that is needed is the ability to commercialise.

Potnak - agreed. There's no way we'll see royalties. Just depends on how far we have to go before an offer comes in. I've always thought that the best we could expect would be 16p (for which I would be very happy). I'd love to know if there is even a hint of a deal on the horizon. 5-10p would be my hope in the short term. As you say, the longer this stretches out without bad news the better it gets but also the risk of failure increases. Back to watching New Zealand mauling Canada...

Krone, I do agree that the potential is massive and like you I am frustrated at the lack of an orchestrated PR campaign. On the downside it is still very early days in the development of 1801/2 and my view (FWIW) is that a sensibly priced deal now would be in all our interests. I concur with ColdFish and whilst I'd love 28p I think we will be waiting more than a couple of years for something close to it and there is a minefield ahead of us in terms of funding, dilution and successful trials. As to SAR having a team of world class negotiators on the case, I live in hope!

Krone - I do agree! Citigate can only say what they are told and if they're not told anything then nothing happens which means Mgt aren't doing their job.