Member Info for RMM3383

Ahfam: I think Thoth is keeping an eye on Immunovant as a potential partner for tyk2 on the basis that Immunovant is a subsidiary of Roivant Sciences which was started by Vivek Ramaswamy (a biotech investor - net individual worth @$600m). They've successfully raised some big tranches of money and focus on getting drugs to market although not always successfully. They currently partner with Oxford BioMedica so despite their Swiss/US patronage they're a global operator specialising in autoimmune. I'm pretty sure that Ramaswamy's name has come up on this board a while back but don't quote me on that. If they are interested in SAR then this is just the sort of company that will generate a partnership out of the blue. Given Roivant's strategic shift from late stage drugs to early stage development they will want to get in before the price starts to climb. Could be interesting.....

Good find Krone. So, all their existing cash goes to Momelotenib. No surprises there. With regard to 737 they want a partner who will pick up the bill. Question is whether the 'partner' will want the licence or be prepared to share. What we do know is that they're not going for a placing (quite simply the sp won't support that route). Meanwhile their SP values the company at half their current assets. Could be vulnerable.

Like most people on this board I wasn’t impressed by the placing. However, on reflection I don’t believe a lot has changed (at least from my perspective). I wasn’t expecting the much anticipated milestones until September at the earliest because it will take Sierra at least this long to get a deal in place to fund 737. Nothing has changed in this respect and to date Sierra’s management are much more effective at doing deals. I don’t believe they will hand 737 back to ICR/SAR quite simply because there would be no way to justify to their shareholders why they have written off the investment when they could sell it on. ICR/SAR also know they can’t afford to take it back and progress it without a big pocketed partner. Therefore we have to wait on Sierra and I doubt they are sat on their hands as they have Momelotinib to fund. On this basis alone the SAR sp is significantly undervalued but on an uncertainty basis only, (remember the brokers report earlier this year that calculated 0.8-1.2p just on 737 alone) the science clearly works. TYK2 is still on the starting blocks but recent news from SAR repeatedly states they want it in trials in 2020. Today’s RNS states quite clearly that the fund raise is for TYK2, a tightening of the words used yesterday. As many have said, the more advanced testing gets, the higher the price an acquirer has to pay and SAR are upping the ante. Last year Tim stated in an interview that they expected to take TYK2 ‘at least into pre-clinicals’ but obviously not much further. A deal could be delivered anytime between now and next summer and I suspect that interest will mount dependent on the competitive landscape and any early results but probably not before 2020. Based on Y/E 2018 data SAR had enough cash which when augmented by the October placing gave them roughly enough cash to get them to September this year. The latest placing gets them to January 2020. My view, for what it’s worth and as previously stated, is that behind the scenes ICR/SAR have been told that Sierra can’t pay the milestones until the new funding arrangements/deal are in place. On top of that SAR have to get TYK2 moving and that requires cash. Yesterday’s placing means the timetable for TYK2 remains intact even without the milestones. Whilst the SP dropped heavily in Dec 18 it did recover to 0.8p on no news! As Searle and others have predicted, 0.3p or less could be on the cards but likewise we could see 0.8p again by late Autumn and from then onwards ‘game on’. My gut tells me that Tim is an honest scientist but Parker is a gravy train rider. If any deals are done it will be by Sierra or others coming to SAR. All IMHO and GLA for the coming rocky ride.

So, no milestone imminent, money needed to take TYK2 forward implies no licence imminent. All adds up to.... 0.4p. Well done BoD and NED's. If that is you adding significant value then I hate to think where we will be in a years time. Looks like its going to be a very ill tempered AGM in December.

Potnak - I don't think any of us LTH's expected Parker to deliver 28p singlehandedly but the SP is currently 38% below the price when he was appointed in May 2016. And this despite good news on 737 and TYK2. Hardly evidence that the man is delivering value yet he takes a salary and options.

Krone - I quite agree. The content of both Parker and SAR's tweets suggest that we are still very much in the shop window rather than concluding a deal.

Following Sierra's release of the 737 data the more I think about it the more convinced I am that we will not get any significant news until at least September. Whoever takes 737 forward is going to need deep pockets and in Sierra's position I would be looking to focus on Momelotenib. My suspicion is that Sierra are looking to secure a partner or to on-licence and have asked ICR/SAR to accept a delay in milestones until a deal is struck. ICR/SAR will likely agree to this on the basis that it could trigger a windfall. On this basis I'm not expecting an accrual in August as I would expect Sierra to get the new partner to pay the milestones direct thereby keeping Sierra's balance sheet untainted. Once free of their 737 obligations the Sierra SP will be free to recover giving them the option to either take Momelotenib forward independently or command a high price for an acquisition. What they will not want to do is announce an accrual in August without a plan for 737 otherwise their SP will be decimated even further making them extremely vulnerable to a takeover. On this basis I'm happy to wait because I believe the dice are loaded in our favour. All IMHO and total speculation but what else is there to do during a hot and stormy summer? GLA!

Has Thoth invested his bonus this morning or has SAR been spotted by an opportunistic buyer? 3m in two tranches and the MM's react by widening the spread to create a false impression that the SP has gone up by 5%. It will take more than that to provoke panic buying and selling!

These are 'tumour agnostic' drugs that are based on CAR-T therapy and target the NTRK genetic variation. Different to 737 and 1802. They are likely to be fast tracked because they offer therapy in rare cancers (especially with children). However, there's a big price issue that the NHS are already flagging.

None of Woodfords funds are registered as institutional shareholders of SAR. Less that 25% of SAR shares are held by Institutional holders and a lot of those are PI's stakes. More interestingly Silence Therapeutics (where Parker is a NED and previously Chairman) saw a hike in SP yesterday (around 13%) although the SP remains well below its peak (84p this year and 237p in 2017). Strange that the SP rose despite the fact that Woodford is invested in Silence and huge blocks of shares were sold - including two dumps of £772k. The buying and selling pattern looks suspiciously like Woodford getting out. One issue that SAR does not have to worry about! GLA

Array are a lot bigger than SAR - 3 Approved drugs plus another 8 in Phase 3 trials and a further 5 in Phase 1/2. They would have been a much bigger blip on the Pfizer radar than SAR is currently. However, because Pfizer have 'waited' to take them out they've had to pay a very high price. Depends on Pfizers appetite for risk as to whether SAR would be a target and at what price. Still, its nice to see activity in this field.

Following on from Utah's post its important to differentiate between the facts and the conjecture. In the last few weeks the facts are that 737 in the hands of Sierra has produced good results and we now know that the two TYK2 candidates are progressing with good toxicity profiles. In addition we know that 1801 can be manufactured (synthesised) whereas 1802 is yet to have manufacturing capability confirmed. The latter is important for those who remember the solubility issues with Aurora. For both 737 and 1801/2 the outstanding issue remains the cost of getting them through trials. A further fact is that Sierra have their focus (quite rightly) on Momelotinib. Furthermore they do not currently have the funds to get both Momelotinib and 737 to market. SAR also currently do not have the funds to get 1801/2 through trials. Missing from the RNS's/news from both SIerra and SAR is how they intend to do this and from that has sprung much conjecture (usually with the focus on the SP). Utah quite rightly states that we have no facts on when or how much the next milestone will be but we may get a pointer in August when Sierra release results. Personally I'm not expecting to see anything but that's just me looking through my personal crystal ball. What we do know from Tim is that he hopes to see shareholder value increase in the next 12 months so he obviously thinks something will happen and I'm now beginning to think that it will revolve around TYK2 (because they need a partner to pay the bills). The unexpected part of the RNS was for me the very last paragraph - 'we continue to seek other opportunities to which the Company could add value and grow the business'. I'm wondering if they've found someone to work with on Aurora or who is interested in SKIL and the finger of expectation seems to be pointing at Dr Owen as part of the 'recently expanded Board' and who has previous in the biotech sector. Having released news on 737 and 1801/2 I wouldn't be surprised if things now go quiet with SAR until August/September. Likewise with Sierra I get the feeling they are working on financial plans but they may take a while to emerge. Shame about the weather because we're going to need something to distract us during the wait. GLA and all the above IMHO.

Not strictly true. Parker is formerly of Barings Bank and essentially a deal facilitator (or at least he should be!). The recent additions are a biotech scientist NED and an accountant. Neither of the recent appointments are deal brokers. We are currently dependent on Parker advising the BoD and the news is ‘silent’. If we get to September without SP growth then it’s time to sharpen the knives (or should I say scalpels!)

Interesting link put up on the IMM share chat. It's worth watching just for the analysts comments about the disconnect between companies presenting good data at ASCO only to see the sp take a battering the following day. His description of the issues over Lupuzor (that failed P3 last year) and the unmet needs of the 1.5m lupus sufferers also raises questions as to why we've heard nothing from the SAR BoD on the US Army trials. One hypothesis is that our solution doesn't fit with the market trends. If so then the BoD and NEDS really need to step up their game to get our message across. On a positive side the analyst thinks that the biotech sector is due a major boost. GLA.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/13612/analyst-sees--clear-rationale--for-immupharma-to-move-forward-with-lupuzor

David - if we go into 2020 without any milestones or news on TYK2 there will be a riot at the AGM!

Hi Thoth. Your comment that our asset is seriously up in value made me wonder just what value SAR would have if anogenital was the only indication we could claim. Little seems to have been published on this indication so I've looked at cervical which has 490,000 cases worldwide as opposed to anogenital's 50,000. Big if, but if I assume the same cost of treatment per case then the market size for anogenital is around $650m rising to $1.1bn by 2025. Assuming a range of market shares and a p/e of 8 then the value of anogenital to SAR is somewhere between 1.2-2.6p excluding milestones. As we know from todays presentation there is a serious unmet market need in anogenital so I could be undervaluing the returns. Whichever way I look at it we should be seeing a re-rate to at least 2p based on todays findings. With the milestones added in then 4p is easily feasible. Hopefully the market will catch up..... all IMO. GLA

Like many others on this board I would like to see some shareholder value creation. As previously posted I feel that on balance the news should be good tomorrow but I'm expecting market indifference on Monday for the simple reason that there will be no mention of milestone payments when SAR release their take on the poster. Judging from Sierra's SP (bouncing along the bottom of its range) and planned investor meeting etc its pretty clear to me that they cannot afford to take 737 and others forward without a major injection of capital. This could be a simple dilution (quickest option) or they will look to sell on/sign a partner (DD will drag this out by months). Taking 737 back if Sierra delay its progression is not an option (SAR do not have the funds, the ICR will be reticent to approve the move and the easiest option for all parties will be to wait on Sierra - I wouldn't be at all surprised if they haven't already had this conversation). On this basis we will be lucky to see any improvement in the SP before September if we rely upon 737 which leads me to TYK2. Much has been said about NDA's, house tidying (new NED's, data sheet withdrawals etc) and SAR not being a leaky ship. However, the deafening silence is not good management and suggests rightly or wrongly that despite competitor failures the BoD is unable to close a deal. At this rate there will be nothing of consequence on TYK2 before the AGM. If that is the case then the BoD and NED's can expect a mauling. My message to the BoD (in line with Aber's posts) is therefore very simple - 'Your salaries are paid for by the shareholder and therefore it is your duty to create and protect value'. Now get on with it......

On balance I agree - you wouldn't set up presentations and invite high profile people to present bad news. I think they want money and lots of it!

Judicious use of the Filter button easily removes the dross. With regard to the market I've been watching some classic pump and dump on MTFB. SAR seems to be under the radar in this respect or (and a big 'oar' it might be) there is concern that if it gets pumped it might actually stay up! The recent demise of Sierra's SP seems to indicate two things. Either they are going for a raise (dilution) or the news is poor. If its the latter then I'm not sure why they would shout about it with a poster and presentation within days of each other. If its a raise then its potentially good news for us, assuming they get the funds. Whichever way it goes the MM's clearly don't want to price anything in without some facts. For me Monday will be crucial depending on how SAR choose to present the 'facts' from Saturday. GLA

Poster on Saturday, investors meeting on Monday and now a presentation on Wednesday. Sounds like a beauty parade..... GLA