Member Info for RMM3383

Krone - I'm beginning to suspect that we are some way off a TYK2 deal. There's a worrying amount of 'shop window' activity by the BoD which seems to support my view that the current team are unable to close a deal. It wouldn't surprise me if we don't get anything positive on a licence until 2020. In the short term I'm relying on Sierra and 737 to deliver some value.

Well uncovered Krone. They do look very similar with essentially two molecules but multiple indications. If the SAR BoD and Non Execs can't extract some value in the short term then we know we're backing a dud. Fortunately SRRA seem to be much more on the ball as deal makers but that still leaves TYK2 with SAR.....

PYC consolidated at 100:1 in Dec 2016. The current price equates to where the pre-consolidated price was 6 months before the consolidation. Investors who bought in a year earlier are still looking at a paper loss of around 50%. Hardly a glowing example of how to build shareholder value and a very good reason for SAR not to consolidate.

The BBC have gone big on the ICR's statement on targeting drug resistance to cancers. It doesn't mention any companies by name but this would be an ideal opportunity for SAR to release a PR statement showing where they fit into this scenario. The RNS this morning was factual and could only report what Sierra have so far released but there's no reason why the PR company can't join the conversation on drug resistance and in particular 'multi drug combination treatments'. Come on guys, wake up!

Speculation and very much IMHO! The Jefferies assessment suggests that we will get indifferent findings tomorrow and the SP will drift a little lower. However, it would not surprise me if Sierra use this opportunity to put 737 in the shop window on the basis that the data suggests multiple indications which they cannot afford to fund. They already have Momelotenib as a primary focus so maybe its time to start clearing the decks. If the data does indicate multiple indications for 737 then its good news for us in the medium term but unlikely to trigger a re-rate in the next few weeks. If Sierra are touting 737 then I'm more confident in their ability to complete a deal than I am in Parker et al.

Since Friday lunchtime we've had continuous selling yet the MM's have not reduced the bid. Could it be that they need to accumulate shares but realise that if they drop the sp it will just trigger another round of buying?

DonCardo - You raise a perfectly reasonable point which deserves a considered reply. From my experience and perspective there are a number of points that need to be mentioned which may alleviate some of your concerns. Timing - The appointment of a CEO is a time sensitive issue. Recruitment would have started mid 2018 and an offer made probably around October 2018 - a period when Sierra would not have had the information they are about to release. At that point the success of Sierra's leading compounds were not guaranteed (and are still not guaranteed) and she was offered a step up the ladder. As Londonwolfie says, no one turns such a move down without very careful consideration. Contractually we do not know what her terms were but I know several directors who have moved and retained their shareholdings. Options are a different matter but again this depends on the terms of her contract and when they can be exercised. Also don't rule out a golden hello to sweeten the pill if she did leave shares behind. On balance I don't think her move was deserting a sinking ship but more the possibility to move to bigger and better things. It wouldn't be the first time an exec has left a company and then re-appeared on the acquisition team. Personally I think the forthcoming results for 737 were a little way down her agenda. We'll know by the end of the week.... GLA

I spoke to LSE about this some time ago and the problem is a combination of the spread, timing of the deal and the algo used by LSE to decide if its a buy or sell. Anything below the mid point is classified as a sell and appears red, above the mid point is a buy (blue) and anything on the mid point appears in black (neither buy nor sell!). My bed and ISA appeared as a sell simply because the broker acted on a price booked 4 days before they did the deal and the prices (to sell and re-buy) were both below the mid point. Best to go by the prices being paid as its pretty obvious what is a buy and what a sell is. At the moment I'm paying more attention to what the MM's are doing with the spread rather than the prices. In the meantime, enjoy the ride!

As far as I'm concerned its just a buying opportunity! Although at some point I would like to cash out....

Aber - My thoughts were the same initially. However, lets put this in context. They burned through $15m in 3 months which means that their current cash pile will only last 6 months. They need to raise just to maintain the current trials. If they then add additional trials they will need to raise even more. The provision for milestones will not be made in Q1 but in Q2 if the trial results trigger the payments. As Thoth says they don't want to spook the market. The SRRA SP has not nose dived on this news which in itself means they knew this was coming. The SAR SP drop today was manufactured by dropping the bid. News on the 15th and 1st will set the real tone going forward. Keep calm everyone and GLA!

We are now exactly 1 week away from Sierra presenting their abstract on 737. I'm expecting some negative comment when the outcome is either no movement in the SP (good results) or a drop (bad or indifferent findings). The paper in itself will not spark a re-rate unless there is mention of milestone payments (which is highly unlikely). So lets manage expectations before the herd arrive to de-ramp/ramp. What we've seen in the past week is the SP holding steady at a point slightly south of where it should be given the current situation. According to the analysts' reports it should be nearer 0;8p. Under normal circumstances the MM's would have dropped the SP several times as soon as a sell appeared. This hasn't happened which suggests some confidence. The Sierra SP has continued to bounce along the bottom end of its range but not right at the bottom. This doesn't worry me because I think the market has a suspicion as to what is coming (a raise). Thoth has indicated what he thinks are the timescales (anything between 2 and 5 years) but they could be shorter (unlikely to be longer than 5 years). For me the key point is going to be when Sierra release their Q1 results. If the news on the 15th is good but there's no provision for a milestone in the Sierra Q1 update then I believe we have a problem. Not a problem with the compound but with the deal between Sierra and SAR et al. No milestone means another raise for SAR and at the current level they will be lucky to get 0.4p. What would rescue it would be a deal on TYK2 but we have no information on how close this might be. All in all its going to be a nervous period. I'd be interested in Searle's investor friend's perspective on whether things are aligned with his expectations. Anything useful would hopefully reduce my nervous twitch! All the above is IMO and I hope the stars continue to align for all LTH's.

Hi Thoth, My calculations suggested 27p so similar territory. 'Don't riskb'??? Typo or missing text??

It’s only Wednesday yet I feel like its been a rollercoaster week already and we’re not even into the pre 15th news fest/sp games. So, 3 analyst views on Lilly and CHK1/2, two say it’s to Sierra’s advantage and one says its bad news. The only conclusion I can draw is that they don’t know what it really means. SAR on the other hand release a tweet drawing attention to a competitor’s ‘failure’. Would you do this if you didn’t have something at least as good if not better? To get a slot on the 15th the ‘paper’ must already have been written. If its bad news would SAR have put out the tweet? Have they seen the paper? I suspect they have (or at least know the jist of it) but that’s only conjecture. The Sierra SP – Any analyst worth their salt will look at the trail and think – ‘lots of good news but its going to cost a fortune to get this lot through trials, maybe a raise coming? Be cautious’. Then there’s the strategic perspective from Sierra’s point of view – always negotiate from a position of strength ‘we’ve got the compounds and if we raise funds we can, if necessary, take it all the way. Unless of course someone wants to make a really attractive offer for the business’. Competitors withdrawing from the race – trials cost a lot of money. Why throw money at something if you know or suspect you’re losing the race. Overall, either we’re being sold a pup (and I’d be very surprised if T&J sanctioned such a move) or things are about to get very exciting. GLA

Hi Thoth. Like you I wonder if the news expected on the 15th will be as good as we hope for. I'm not going to tempt fate on this one! However, even if its bad we still have Tyk2 so not quite the binary play that most biotechs represent. Definitely squeeky bum time and that's no reflection on your home brewing capabilities. GLA

Belhus - I agree with your point of view up to the 'he can't be useless'. I know the NED circus very well and he exhibits all the characteristics of an underperforming gravy train rider. These people are supposed to supply strategic advice and facilitate deals. If he can't facilitate a deal on TYK2 in the next 8 months then I for one will be at the AGM pushing for his dismissal. I completely agree that we should be getting great news in the next few months so please Dr Parker prove me wrong and help Tim and John get the results they (and we) deserve.

Just checked my facts and Dr Parker was in fact Non Exec Chairman of Silence Therapeutics when he was appointed to SAR in 2016. Since then he's been replaced as Chairman and as of today he's not even a NED. Not exactly a sparkling performance. Silence up 10% today and SAR down 6%. My money is on the science (Tim & John) as I think in the Chairman we've got a dud!

Silence Therapeutics put on 20% yesterday with investors smelling news. Todays RNS announced new Board appointments/resignations including Mr Stephen Parker stepping down as a NED. The price rose another 5% on this news. Doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that he's an asset. Now we know why he's taken on a new position in the cannabinoids sector. Draw your own conclusions....

Interesting to note that Mike Owen has just invested £10k in RENE. He obviously thinks that even with the recent re-rate there's still more to come. By comparison RENE's Non Exec Chairman spent £180k today on shares. Makes Mr Parker's Wife's purchase last year of £5k's worth of SAR shares look a tad paltry. So, not talking to institutions, not talking to PI's and not investing money. Is it a closed period or do they have enough options without risking their capital? Not sure what to make of it...….

I bought into RENE in 2016 and sold out the following year at 2.3p before the consolidation. Mike Owen joined RENE in 2015 so he was there for the consolidation which in my opinion was a disaster for LTH's. At todays price I would get my money back but little else. Lets hope he's not advocating the same for SAR but focused on a licence.

From a low point of 47p back in Feb RENE (who Mike Owen advises) hit £2.80 this morning. Not bad if you got in at the low point but for many only a relatively small return who saw their investment gradually fall away over the last 2 years. The key learning for me is that RENE released an update on their trials last month and the sp moved up by around 40% but then held it until the news started to leak. Today they've announced a licencing agreement with a Chinese pharma - £80m in milestones(£6m immediately - sounds familiar?) and 12-14% of royalties if the product gets to market. Looks like Mr Owen might be the right man in the right place at the right time. Lets hope he's now got his attention focused on SAR. Up until March there was no evidence that RENE was going anywhere and then it was news out of the blue. GLA