Member Info for RMM3383

A quick review of the last 24 hours – I had anticipated that the detail behind the abstract would be good but have little if any impact on the SP. I was wrong. The SP actually went up. Today it goes down. Back to square 1. As Thoth points out, the potential for 1802 is now enormous but at the moment it is only potential. In the past, companies with potential have commanded enormous premiums (remember Knutsford? Archie Norman et al got together an investment vehicle and based simply on their reputations the value of the business prior to ANY deals skyrocketed). The difference between SAR and Knutsford is the people. The latter were by reputation deal makers and brokers. SAR on the other hand have no track record in this respect (for the 737 deal with Sierra they were a passenger). Tim and John are scientists and I have no gripe with the fact that the poster was steeped in scientific jargon. However, the NED’s are supposed to be the commercial and strategic advisors. Following the presentation Citigate should have been briefed on how to put out a PR bulletin using plain English. This omission is in my opinion nothing short of criminal and shows the naivety of the NED’s. Not surprisingly nobody in the investment community (outside readers of this board) has, as a result, a clue as to the real potential of SAR and furthermore they do not see a team who can commercialise. I completely agree with Utah in that I can see another year go by while they piddle around with the science and ply the investors with every excuse under the sun as to why they can’t do a deal and why they didn’t deliver significant value in the forecast 12 (now 6) months. Silence is often used to mask the fact that something is going on (hope springs eternal etc) but it can also be a double play to mask the fact that in reality very little of commercial value is going on. As I’ve pointed out previously, being under an NDA does not prevent you from publicising your wares. If anything it helps to build the price and in the event of a deal falling through you have an immediate position to fall back upon. The scientific news has been great this week but the strategic commercial nouse is woeful. Time to sharpen the knives in preparation for December I fear.

With possible results from Sierra next week you may be right Ahfam. Hopefully they are getting beyond 'further discussions'!

Nice find! Too soon for them to be switching their attention to us after yesterdays poster but you never know... they might have had advance sight of the data.

To be fair Krone, I'd love Parker to be successful because then we'd all benefit. Institutions on board, deals done etc. We'd all be happy!!!

Not sure about KW. Could be like Thesis AM and just be a PI using their investment portal (as is the case with Alliance Trust).

We already knew they had been talking to 'interested parties' and now we're told they look forward to 'further discussions'. How about getting someone on the team who can turn 'discussions' into a contract? As Luton says, cash is king on AIM and so far nothing has been delivered this year. The blue rinse of the SP today is simply the MM's playing around. There is a real danger that without a deal maker at the helm we are going to see all the potential wither away. The EGM may have been avoided but the AGM can't be sidestepped. Two months to get your act together and less than 6 months to deliver the 'significant value'.

Judging by the SP the market is expecting sweet FA.....

What's the betting that they'll release it just before the AGM? It would be a shame if they did that because it wouldn't get the attention it deserves (assuming its good). If they released it in November if could attract great PR, get the BoD off the hook and maybe, just maybe, prop up the SP a little.....

… steadily rising. Silence Therapeutics now at a 5 yr high. Meanwhile back at Sareum the SP appears to be heading for its lowest in 5 years. Dare I mention that the difference is that Silence got rid of Parker whilst we still have him. He might have escaped the EGM but I can't see the AGM being anything other than bloody unless they pull something out of the bag. So where's the promised data on Lupus for a start.... Without Fadec we'd have nothing to base current goodwill upon!

Looks like the MM's are 'creating' a drop so that they can respond to tomorrows news with a little blue run. Would be nice to see some volume for a change. Given the potential it is remarkably quiet.....

I see now why you think they will on-licence by Feb. DD is probably underway, final data released to interested parties in December, auction in January. I suspect the Research Director saw the early results and got in early to avoid any possible closed period etc. As you say, they have been very quiet recently, even to the point of looking as if they don't care about the SP so I'm even more suspicious that something is on the cards. 7th may give us a hint but I think its more likely to be revealed in January what they've been up to.

Thanks for posting Thoth. Given that the application was made 18 months ago and released a year ago, why do you think Sierra haven't on-licensed it yet? Do you think they are auctioning it??

Krone - Unfortunately I think your money might be safe but if he does perform I hope that the SP responds in such a way that your donation becomes self funding! Would be nice to go into the festive season with a 'blue' run on the SP rather than the red we had last year.

We should get an RNS with a link to the presentation. It will only be the data behind the abstracts so not expecting the market to respond. I think we should open a book on the likelihood of RNS's before February: Odds on favourite is an RNS on the 29th October announcing the data behind the abstracts. This will be followed in late November by an RNS announcing the AGM w/c 16th Dec, probably Friday 20th to try and dissuade people from attending. 5/4 odds on that one. RNS in January? 10/1 announcing that 737 has been on-licenced, 5/1 announcing a placement. Preclinical licence before end of Feb? 50/1. Parker to announce he has brought an institution on board? 1000/1.

Revisiting my market model from 6 months ago when I thought a discounted price for the company would be 16p a share then at 25% of 66p = 16.5p we're in the same territory. In the meantime while we wait for news its a nice game to play!

Potnak - I agree. We'd have to be a lot further down the road and at some point that road might become a dead end. A sensible offer now would be more than welcome.

Fax - I would be very, very happy with that. Just at the moment it seems that we will be lucky to see 0.66p! How did you get to the valuation?

Looks like they picked up on Bassers post from yesterday. Good to see that this board is ahead of the game!!!

Give him a break Krone! He's had a busy week. He had to make both opening and closing remarks on the conference call!!

Its not a 3.5 hrs presentation. Tim will get a slot in the 3.5 hr session. He'll probably get 20-30 mins but that's enough to put out the store. It's what happens behind the scenes that matters.