Member Info for RMM3383

Yesterdays news that 2700 genomes of cancer have been sequenced is good news for us (IMO). With the ability to identify how mutations take place and target treatment according to the genetic makeup of the patient this means that all drugs can now be more effectively focused. For us that means more precisely targeted clinical trials and thereby better outcomes. Bring it on! Stunning statistic was that they only understood 1% of cancers in terms of how mutations evolved and this has now risen to 95%.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/massive-cancer-genome-study-reveals-how-dna-errors-drive-tumor-growth

I'm sure that discussions are underway on TYK2 but something is holding them up and I suspect its the patent. At the end of Feb it will be 3 months since the submission was made by JR and after that I'd really hope for some news. The US patent process is a law unto itself in terms of timelines and SAR are as frustrated as we are.

My thinking entirely Utah! I'd like to think its a lateral message to SAR shareholders but with little substantive news to underpin the SP(hence the slide) I'm beginning to think that we are still very much in the shop window (re TYK2) rather than at the checkout. Lets hope Feb brings some positive news.

According to a UK coronavirus survivor whisky and honey works very effectively! Available at all good supermarkets now. No distractions please, lets focus on 737 combo readout and TYK2 patent.

Hi Potnak - Like you, my money is on TYK2. I don't think 737 is going to be a wonder drug but it should be a good player in the war against certain cancers. The only thing I'm looking for from Sierra is some news because based on my calculations of the rate of decline in their SP, they'll be below $1 again by the end of March.... So Mr Glover, just what is Plan B?

Hi Krone - I'm not convinced that the next RNS will be a placing and I wasn't expecting anything in January (although that would have been nice and we still have one day to go...) If we go through Feb without anything then I'll be suspicious that 737 hasn't performed in the combo trial. The problem as I see it is that there are a lot of options and permutations out there. Sierra could decide to sit on 'good results' so that they can buy time to get a partner on board. Alternatively they may simply want to delay publication to spin things out and keep hold of 737 without committing funds. Then there's Gilead. What are they really up to? Too many unknowns and I'm getting fidgety.

They've got to do something because Momelot isn't going to rescue their SP.

Been watching Avacta (AVCT) over the last few days where Michael Owen (one of our NED's) is also a NED. They've suddenly attracted interest based on a recent trading update and the buying levels have gone through the roof (anything up to £55k). Their SP is still well south of where they were 3 years ago and the forecast is that they could reach 3x current levels (but still a paper loss for those who invested in 2014 and after). Seeing a £10k buy go through on SAR this morning is encouraging but given where our SP is we need to get nearer to 1p if we're going to see significant value when the good news really does break. In Feb last year SAR announced when and where Sierra were going to announce the findings on 737. Hopefully we'll get something shortly that tells us when the combo findings will be released. If that doesn't spark a bit of speculative interest then we're running too far below the radar. Mr Owen - please speak to your colleagues at Avacta and transfer the insights to SAR! GLA

Utah, I've been watching MTFB for a couple of years and I think they are very different to SAR. Their headline product has had toxicity issues, the management have played fast and loose and they've put all their eggs in one basket with Iclaprim. SAR has 4 molecules of which 1 is on the back burner, 1 should go to fast track and two are prime licence candidates. Yes, we could crash and burn but I've more faith in SAR's science than I have in MTFB's. But that's just my perspective.

Hi Thoth - Yes, I'm that man. Hope you are enjoying Cologne. I'm thinking that if the results in Feb are 'promising' then the first thing we'll see is movement in the Sierra SP (they're a leaky ship and in need of good news). If we don't get good news in Feb then I'll start to worry about 737 but only in the sense that SAR's future becomes more dependent on TYK2. In terms of building visibility Silent Witness this evening mentioned Gemcitabine as a 'promising treatment' for pancreatic cancer. Funny how the you start to notice these things. Perhaps we could ask the scriptwriters to add in a bit about combination treatments?

Hi Stoney - You're not the only person telling me that Gilead are bailing out Sierra with a view to its 'other' assets. As you say, I just don't get why you would sell something cheap and then buy it back at a higher price when its no nearer a result. Sierra may have cash in the bank to see Momo through the next two years but the SP won't survive especially if they lose control of 737 (I don't think for one minute that ICT will let them sit on it with the promise that they're looking for non-dilutive funding). I just wish we could get beyond the politics.

Down another 7%. It's gone from $14-$11 in only a few days since the reverse split. Any news from Momenotalotuse is a long way off and if their SP continues to drop at this rate they'll be below $1 again in less than 6 months. Personally I think its good news for us because the only way they can shore up the SP is to do a deal with 737. All IMHO. GLA

Little going on across my watchlist. I get the impression that the market is waiting for something... Meanwhile the FT have just updated their 'Institutional Holders'. No surprises other than the Market Makers (Peel and Morgan S have dumped their balances). With so many of the shares in PI hands any institution trying to build a stake would have to prise the shares away and that would raise the price. I think everyone's in it for the long haul now and just waiting on news.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=SAR:LSE

Hi Celtic. I think we were all quietly confident that 737 would be fast tracked until Sierra and NG started playing games. With Sierra looking for a non-dilutive partner the pause has been filled with competitive failures that make 737 look more of a risk than a guaranteed success. Some good news in Feb would allay fears. GLA

Stoney - When I read through the patent extension I did think that they were going for so many cancer indications that it would take the reviewers/experts forever and a day to assess the application! However, I suspect that this is the norm. What Tim did say during the AGM was that we only need to be successful in 1 indication to get the ball rolling. If we're successful across multiple indications then its game on big time. I'm hoping that Ahfam is right and we can get patent approval in the next month but that's only wishful thinking. This is not an easy field when it comes to IP and patents. GLA

Potnak/Stoney - We may be the 'only molecules left' but that doesn't necessarily mean we become the most valuable. If all around us are failing then the pharmas and markets may start to look at the sector as very high risk and actually price down. The best option for us is to get into a rising market where our product is one of a limited number of 'successes' available which then catalyses an auction. Eli Lilly having spent $1.6bn on a failed product creates fear rather than confidence. As a crude analogy, if a number of people invented the square wheel and the concept fails (for obvious reasons) then the last person with a square wheel does not have the most valuable option! My point is that we either need convincing data that our product works where others fail or we are a valuable alternative to a small number of products that are already succeeding. As you say Stoney the products have got to speak for themselves! We need some news!!! GLA

Good find Krone. Sounds to me like they don't intend to on-licence. SAR need to comment on this otherwise the rumour mill will hammer the SP

That's a massive consolidation and the market clearly doesn't like it judging by the markdown that started the day. Makes me wonder if they've done this to give them headroom in the event that they can't sustain the price even at this level (which would be around $14). Can't see Momelotenib getting them out of this fix in the short term which may put pressure on them to get on with 737.

Andrew Sewell - Its an impressive CV but he's a dyed in the wool academic and never taken anything to market hence the comment of only a few years before it could be available etc which shows just how detached he is from the reality of drug testing. Let's get the current pipeline moving and provide some hope for those with cancer now.

Following on the BBC article last night, it’s now appeared in ‘Futurism’ - ‘Immune cell that kills most cancers’. The latest report should trigger a collapse in any company’s stock that has anything to do with cancer. According to one of the researchers, if further studies go well this could be available to people ‘within a few years’. All I can say is it’s naive of the researcher to make such a claim and misleading of the journal to print such an oversimplified report. Quite glad that SAR were not mentioned. What would be good to see reported is something along the lines of ‘Following last weeks convention and Sierra’s conclusion of the Reverse Share Split we are pleased to announce that licensing arrangements have now been concluded for 737, 1801 and 1802.’ Now that would be groundbreaking!!!! Back to reality. GLA