Member Info for RMM3383

Pretty sure we're not in this but.... sends a clear message on the dual focus of vaccine and therapeutics. Particularly the role of 'small biotechs'.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52295898

Hi Andy - The US DoD put an embargo on releasing the data but.... SAR are allowed to show it to a third party under NDA. Draw your own conclusions! With regard to the NED's, I think they've been doing a rather good job lately and a lot is going on behind the scenes IMHO.

Hi Ahfam - Not sure I believe all of what comes out of China but reading between the lines I'm wondering if the politics are kicking in and enrolment is being managed by the CCP. We need to keep a weather eye on what they get up to. They are, after all, the furthest down the curve.

Bighow - There's a lot of speculation going around the biotech sector regarding Covid 19 and we've been sucked in but for all the right reasons (IMHO). Interesting to note that Physiomics released a RNS this morning warning about a 'fake' twitter account that's been passing itself off as an official channel. As far as I'm aware the same is not true of SAR and our gains are hopefully sustainable. We're now getting back to a point with the SP where we can springboard once real news is released. GLA

Hi Wilfred - I think Stoney's post answers your question but in short any virus that puts the immune system into overdrive potentially requires an inhibitor. Covid 19 is just one virus (although it looks like there are at least 3 variants out there) and others produce the same results. We (SAR) could become a very important part of a very big (and expanding) jigsaw.

Hi Thoth - Yes, a drop is almost more indicative of potential value than the reverse. One thing to keep in mind is that whilst Covid is huge, if we become involved its not just Covid in which we'll have an interest but the whole therapeutics market for respiratory infections like pneumonia and combos are the way forward for many indications. GLA

Yes, I know who bought them.

Sorry to cut across the debate but the 3.7m was a buy.

It's almost like someone is watching this board and waiting for a prompt!!! Keep it up SAR! Maybe some big news in the not too distant future??

Good find. Would be nice if SAR could follow up with a 'comment'......

Utah, you're goading the market. Behave!

Utah - I worked in M&A and specialised in market modelling. I'm also very familiar with the ASA rules. All negotiations start with a valuation. The price that is actually paid is usually very different. As I said in my post, its nice to dream. GLA

Hi Krone - Given the various operating circumstances (lockdown, fast tracking, multiple trials, toxicity and patents etc) getting any deal done will take at least 3 months IMO. That's not to say that things haven't been underway for a while but I can see many reasons why deals won't be finalised in the short term even if collaborations are live (and under NDA). The ones making the money at this point in time will be the lawyers. GLA

Just been looking at the size of the therapeutics market for pneumonia and also a basic model for costing the treatment of Covid 19 patients who go beyond mild symptoms. Using my previous calculations on the value of SAR for 737 and TYK2 and then adding in the value for Aurora this would give SAR a SP of around 31p. Using pharma sector P/E and then discounting by up to 50% (because they'll want some fat and security in the deal) then the price to buy out SAR (assuming everything went well with trials in all areas - and that's a big IF) then the price would be $5.05 or in real money £4.04. Food for thought. Nice to dream.....GLA

Hi Workinginpharma - Interesting question and no simple answer. The SP for any company is a mix of science and sentiment. The science is the actual hard cash that has been banked/secured and the sentiment is what investors think could materialise. My expectation is that eventually we'll be bought out as its simpler for both parties (as well as the investor IMHO). My previous calculations indicated a price of 26p per share but that was before Aurora (which like SAR I had written off and SKIL which seemed to have served its purpose). Putting a price on Aurora is difficult and SKIL almost impossible. If TYK2 has even wider applications and SKIL can be used to identify new compounds then Thoth is absolutely right to remove his limits. In reply to a previous post it looks like SAR are jumping on the Covid bandwagon and quite correctly IMO as this is in the interest of both Covid sufferers and investors alike. GLA.

Hi Fadec, I'm not saying that they should focus on Covid 19. In a previous post I acknowledged that they had plenty of irons in other fires without the need to go full on with another option. However, the SP is sliding back towards territory I thought we had left behind when the Aurora deal was sprung on us and for no good reason other than we are back into silent running mode in a market that is volatile and hungry for good (even moderately good) news. To get good PR you have to provide the PR company with material they can work with. I can't believe there isn't a story within SAR that isn't newsworthy in the context of the current situation and without changing the focus. Sitting back and waiting for others to bang your drum isn't the way the markets work. SAR might be a company based on science but its also a commercial entity and that means you have to operate as a commercially astute management team. With Aurora in the hands of the Chinese and 737 in the hands of Gilead/Sierra/ICR I don't believe that all their time is being taken up on 1801/2. Show some leg guys!

Yesterday Avacta announced a collaboration on Covid 19, today Silence Therapeutics announced they have repurposed equipment to provide reagents for Covid 19 testing. Avacta will make money out of this (SP up 80% at close yesterday). Silence say they are doing it pro bono but its clearly a good PR move. Silence now up almost 10% today. SAR have contacts at both companies. It would be nice to see the slide in the SP at least halted if not reversed which could be done through a simple PR move - 'Sareum is pleased to announce that it has shared its knowledge of the importance of TYK2 in respect of some of the symptoms associated with Covid 19. The impact on viral pneumonia can be seen at -link provided'. I can't believe that an NDA prevents them from at least acknowledging that they are helping the fight against Covid 19 in some way. Or maybe they aren't? Wakey, wakey….

Now pushing a 90% increase but still well off the price it was attracting 4 years ago. I'm sure Mike Owen is enjoying the ride. Lets hope he's banking the experience for when SAR release good news!!! GLA

Hi Krone - On the half year call they were very luke warm on getting a grant for TYK2 in the context of the virus. I got the impression that they thought there was enough going on with Aurora, 737 and TYK2 not to add further strain by going through the grant process. I may be wrong but I thought after Tim's Proactive interview that they'd already got something lined up and the last thing they need is further complication. What would be interesting is the possibility that the SKIL platform now commands some value (in the same way that Sitryx have sold theirs). As you say, it would be better to sell this on and let the big boys develop it in the context of their wider approach to Covid 19. I've noted today that Avacta (where Mike Owen is a director) have today announced a collaboration with Cytiva (GE Healthcare) to work on Covid 19 rapid testing kits. I'd be very surprised if Tim/John weren't aware of the options but have to decided to remain focused on the main prize. Waiting on the US patent update is proving tortuous and this may be one area of delay that is the result of the virus. Meanwhile with the SP where it is, its a great time for bed and ISA! GLA

I can only surmise that we have a novice market maker looking after SAR. The inability to create a market is very notable. Whoever is 'driving' this is a one trick pony - drop the price and if anyone dares to buy then increase the spread so that they are immediately significantly out of pocket. Whilst I understand that the MM's will play their games to make a bit of money it does not bode well for when the big news arrives. Hopefully it will be big enough to warrant someone with more experience guiding the SP. Until then its another phase of downwards drift. We need a topic to prevent the cobwebs taking over this forum.....