Member Info for RMM3383

aa - not ramping but I seriously think we could hit 7p+ by the AGM - 3p for 737, 3-5p for 1801 and 1p for Aurora. All those are bottom end estimates IMHO. Not advice, just where we are.

Hi Krone - I've been watching Sierra. Odd isn't it? Are they waiting on something??

Belhus - they can't accept it without PI approval. There are no institutions to force it through and too many PI's know the real value.

Reports like this are a win/win. It gives ICR/SAR leverage with Sierra and it gives Dilly leverage with the institutions and Gilead to move away from momelot and expand the pipeline. As regard timelines, September is 'make you mind up time'. With the Shelf Offer its not as if Sierra can't afford to get on with it.

Osteosarcoma market forecast to reach $791m by 2025. 10% share of this market would be worth $21m (£17m) pa to SAR.

Oh please, lets not go down the placing route again!! They only raised a couple of months ago, there's enough money in the bank for the next 12 months even without grants and milestones let alone a licence. They even raised £300k more than they expected.

Whether you believe the 'estimates' or not, now is the time to explore, debate, pontificate and research because when news does break (good, bad indifferent or otherwise) it will be too late. I've set my table out and shared some thoughts here but I have my trigger points and options as well as all the research I've done. I doubt if any of our predictions will be 100% accurate but there's a high chance that one of the figures quoted will be right. GLA.

Keiny - I quite understand your pragmatism, nothing wrong with that. However, beware of selling SAR short. Tim has already intimated that they are talking to multiple parties so essentially we have the opportunity for an auction. Many years ago I took a car to auction and watched in horror as the auctioneer sold many vehicles off for what I considered 'bargain' prices. The technique was completely transparent. Opening price of X? No bids, Halve the opening price and bids came in. No one paid the opening price. Declaring an ambitious opening price is part of the game. Declaring a 'pragmatic' opening price is tantamount to showing your hand in a poker game as soon as the cards are dealt. Lets say what we want rather than what we might accept in a fire sale. Speaking to other investors off line, expectations are north of 16p. GLA

And a 50% risk discount would put us at either 21p or 28p if you only discount the difference between 16 and 41. Whichever way you look at it it’s north of 20p. So many ways you can look at this but at the end of the day it’s what a buyer is prepared to pay and that will be driven by how much they think they can make. Even If someone like Gilead could make a few bn in a couple of years time, I’d still be happy to pass on the baton for 21-28p now!

Thoth - If I take your figures for 737 and FLT3 and assume that TYK2 could be worth double (not unreasonable) then Sar would have revenue of $120m pa which would mean a divi of 3p. With a sector average PE of 13.5 this would mean that Sar would have a value of $1.62bn or roughly 41p per share. However, Gilead has a PE of 18.8 which means as soon as Sars business was absorbed into Gilead it would deliver an immediate 'profit' of $636m. This is a trick that Martin Sorrell pulled multiple times when building WPP into a worldwide conglomerate. Effectively Gilead could pay $636m for Sar and in accounting conventions it wouldn't cost them a penny (or cent to be precise). At $636m that would mean they would pay 16p per share to acquire us. Food for thought and as I've said before, bidding starts at 16p but now we have a rationale for where the top might be - 41p. So, anyone care to speculate what someone like Gilead might be prepared to pay given the potential? Especially as TYK2 might be worth a lot more..... GLA

Krone - I asked Tim during the Investor Forum whether the contract allows for milestones to be paid early and got an affirmative. Whilst the contract stipulates 9 months as a deadline and Tim clarified this as a Q1 2021 event if they go by the dates when the data was transferred there’s no reason why the Chinese partner wouldn’t deliver early.

Hi Krone, yes, although they are listed on the Shanghai Exchange they seem to be quite active beyond China. If this is our partner then its a big move with lots of potential.

1p would certainly be history!!!

Beginning to think that our partner in China may well be Jiangsu Hengrui. A top 30 global pharma with an interest in cancer and lead member of the National Anti-Tumor Medicine Technology Innovation Industry. They also own the National Targeted Drug Engineering Technology Research Centre. Market Cap of $30bn. They also own 8 manufacturing facilities. If this is our partner then Aurora has gone to a big time player with global ambitions. They would certainly have the ability to solve the solubility issue.
https://www.cphi-online.com/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd-comp243328.html
They also have form in JAK inhibitors:
https://www.cphi-online.com/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd-comp243328.html
Note that they JAK inhibitor targets RA and Lupus. Could be a potential suitor for SAR and a useful bidder against someone like Gilead.....
Food for thought. GLA

The review of Sierra with 737 as a lead candidate in Phase 1 trials (we're in Phase 2) along with reference to 141 (handed back) and no mention of momelot suggests that their supporting information is out of date. What is more interesting is the Sierra SP movement in the last 2 days. Looks suspiciously like Dilly briefed investors/analysts over lunch and they returned to their respective offices with buy orders. I get the feeling he's doing the rounds to explain the Shelf Offer and they are buying his vision. A vision beyond Momelot.... September could bring an update. GLA

While the MM's play.... Quite happy that we've had results and an investor forum. Now that's out of the way I need the BoD to focus on the real issue which is getting TYK2 packaged. Not expecting any news until September/October and then possibly 737 if Sierra/Gilead get their act together. Looking back at the Lupus/DoD findings and the valuation placed on Gileads RA drug (anticipated revenues of $3bn) then we are in a very strong position. Just one indication in RA for 1801 and we potentiually have something that, if successful, could generate revenues of $44bn over a 10 year period. RA is a huge market with a CAGR of 5.5%. Filgotinib was expected to take almost a third of the market. With 1801 and no black box warnings we could quite easily match this assuming successful trials. Based on 10 years patent protection then the $44bn revenue stream is far from unrealistic even alongside competitors. Based on the risk (we are pre-clinical) I'd be looking at 16p just for 1801. Then there's 1802, 737 and Aurora. I like Thoth's take on an acquisition and royalty vehicle but I wonder if that's too complicated. So, from my persepective bidding starts at 16p..... According to Tim's comments they are talking to more than one party so its auction time. TBH I'm past the point of wanting PR to get the SP past 1p, lets get down to the real business! Tim/John/Stephen - we know we've got the goods so 'pedal to the metal' please! GLA

Basil - I agree that we are likely to get news on 737 first but Sinovac is listed on NASDAQ whereas the BoD announced that the un named chinese bio was listed on the Shanghai exchange. Keep looking!

On the contrary. There's been a lot of buying disguised as sells with our adolescent MM stepping the price down to accommodate stake building. They'll probably try to step it down again tomorrow before a small recovery on Friday. Once commercial news is out then they won't be able to control it. Until then we have to let the children play.

Num4 - I think your questions were just copied and used by Andrew on Proactive Investors. Who says this board isn't read by the BoD and other key players......

Just been reading about TREM2 and cancer elimination in a mouse study (ring a bell? Here's a clue.... Aurora).
https://scienmag.com/immunotherapy-resistant-cancers-eliminated-in-mouse-study/ Anyway, the study cites how effective the combo of using an antibody against TREM2 combined with an immunotherapy drug is in terms of reducing the growth rate of certain tumours. The institution behind the study is Washington School of Medicine, not a commercial organisation but a company with an interest in TREM2 is Pionyr, an organisation that in June this year sold a large stake in its business to none other than..... Gilead. The latter's interest in immunotherapy is resulting in rapid deals. Pionyr has 3 inhibitors in the pipeline (all pre P1) plus a 'discovery engine'. Gilead paid $275m for a stake of around half of Pionyr with the option to acquire the rest of the business for up to $1.47bn depending on progress of the pipeline. That's up to $1.745bn for a company with less in the pipeline than SAR and no products in clinical trials. No wonder the Sierra Board are loading up..... GLA