RE: Partner29 Oct 2020 11:57
Just a little amendment to Thoths calculation (dangerous given that he's a chartered accountant!) - The revenue figures are in $ which means at the current exchange rate the $4 quoted equates to a SP of £3.25. That would of course be if 1801 went the full distance on just Covid. We are about to go into PoC which is high risk so I've applied a high discount rate - 95%. On this basis the announcement of the grant should have put 3.5p on the SP. Allowing for some pricing in as we knew the decision was imminent then I would have expected 2.5p on top of where we were. That means that we should be much nearer to 5p if not 6p. Assuming we get PoC and land a half decent partner then in 6 months the risk factor drops and I calculate this adds another 7.1p to the SP taking us to 13.1p. At the same time we take 1801 into P1 and without a partner this adds another 14p (again with a high risk factor). Total SP by mid April = 27p. Add in 737 (I'm being cautious and only using 50% of the milestones due) and we head over 30p. So, thinking ahead and assuming everything goes to plan (highly unlikely) then in 2-3 years (factoring in 1802 and FLT3) we should be looking at a company worth £29.92 per share (assuming no further dilution). Based on all the risk factors I'd take a valuation of 10% of the potential which means an acquisition price of £2.99. However, I'd be very happy to take 10% of that upfront and the rest in a dividends vehicle so 29p now please and a long pension plan. As I said a little while ago, bidding starts at 20p and based on my auction experience the auctioneer puts out a price, nobody responds and the price gets discounted. Bidding then commences and lo and behold the starting price is reached. Bidding at 20p, selling price 29p. Makes you think doesn't it? Even if we only get one molecule to market we should still be worth 8-9p by April. GLA
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