Looks like the MM's are stepping down the SP to gather shares for next weeks update. A pattern has emerged - Price goes up first thing and is then stepped down throughout the morning. Good buying opportunities between 9-11. Almost certain that there will be another batch of hidden buys today as well as those not reported yesterday. Hang on people!
Nick - We're being played with. However, it can't go on forever as by going over 2p we're now above the radar. My belief is we'll see significant change once 3p is breached and a different type of investor emerges. Hold on to your stock! Just my opinion....
Hi Krone - My estimate is that between now and the end of April 21 its somewhere between a 4-10 bagger. The lower end is based on PoC and 1801 going forward. The higher end is 1801 gets licenced/partnered and we also get positive news on both PoC and FLT3. 737 is the unknowable!
Just a little amendment to Thoths calculation (dangerous given that he's a chartered accountant!) - The revenue figures are in $ which means at the current exchange rate the $4 quoted equates to a SP of £3.25. That would of course be if 1801 went the full distance on just Covid. We are about to go into PoC which is high risk so I've applied a high discount rate - 95%. On this basis the announcement of the grant should have put 3.5p on the SP. Allowing for some pricing in as we knew the decision was imminent then I would have expected 2.5p on top of where we were. That means that we should be much nearer to 5p if not 6p. Assuming we get PoC and land a half decent partner then in 6 months the risk factor drops and I calculate this adds another 7.1p to the SP taking us to 13.1p. At the same time we take 1801 into P1 and without a partner this adds another 14p (again with a high risk factor). Total SP by mid April = 27p. Add in 737 (I'm being cautious and only using 50% of the milestones due) and we head over 30p. So, thinking ahead and assuming everything goes to plan (highly unlikely) then in 2-3 years (factoring in 1802 and FLT3) we should be looking at a company worth £29.92 per share (assuming no further dilution). Based on all the risk factors I'd take a valuation of 10% of the potential which means an acquisition price of £2.99. However, I'd be very happy to take 10% of that upfront and the rest in a dividends vehicle so 29p now please and a long pension plan. As I said a little while ago, bidding starts at 20p and based on my auction experience the auctioneer puts out a price, nobody responds and the price gets discounted. Bidding then commences and lo and behold the starting price is reached. Bidding at 20p, selling price 29p. Makes you think doesn't it? Even if we only get one molecule to market we should still be worth 8-9p by April. GLA
Krone - A very timely reminder of what is in the cupboard should an acquirer wish to pad out their offer. Not many small biotech's have such a wealth of potential assets.
Thoth - An even more up to date article that seems to show a 3 way combo using FLT3 to enhance the treatment of bladder cancer.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6134568_Coexpression_of_Flt3_ligand_and_GM-CSF_genes_modulates_immune_responses_induced_by_HER2neu_DNA_vaccine
Latest news on inhibitors that target HIF-1a in macular degeneration seem to indicate yet another angle for JAK/STAT pathway inhibitors. With our experience in this area plus the SKIL platform it makes you wonder just what else we could eventually be involved with. From what I've read the way forward with a lot of indications is combo therapies. If our molecules can help regulate the sypmtoms of Covid, improve the efficacy of cancer treatments and even open up new treeatments for unmet needs (and macular degeneration is a big and growing problem - almost $9bn in 8 major markets and expected to double by 2028) then the world is our proverbial oyster.
We are now officially a Covid therapeutics player. As pointed out previously this is in addition to what we already have - Cancer: 3 products, 2 already licenced. Immunotherapy - product approaching clinical. And now Covid -POC and pre clinical. Given the opportunity in the latter our potential value went up yesterday by a minimum of 20%. No bad news so 5p before Xmas should be our minimum expectation. GLA