Member Info for RMM3383

There may be more than one investor wading into SAR. Big buys mean the message is out there and now we have to let the game play out. Hold tight. Over the next couple of weeks I'm expecting the SP to rise steadily to 2.5p then break and hold 3p after which 3.5p shouldn't be an issue. 5p by Xmas is more than realistic. As Bridges says, we are hugely oversold. Looking forward to a weekend of number crunching. As to my prediction for this week, more on that later but feeling very positive! GLA

Agreed - we need someone focused on the exit. I forgot, we also have SKIL. Call that a round 70p.

VelosBio have just been acquired by Merck for the tidy sum of $2.75bn (£2.2bn). They've been acquired for their cancer pipeline of which they have one drug in P1 and 3 pre-clinical. Compare that with our one drug in P2(737), 3 in pre-clinical (one about to go into P1) and another being assessed for POC in Covid. On that basis we are easily worth 67p per share.

Covid grant last week. Increasing evidence for the efficacy and safety of TYK2. Big buys daily but always reported late. MM's desperate to suppress this share. You can only keep the lid on a boiling pot for so long.... GLA

If you bought at 0.2 or 0.4p then selling at 1.9 is still a healthy profit and people need money so I'm not criticising anyone for selling. All I would say is that with 4-5p round the corner it might be worth hanging on just a little longer! Squeeky rear time will be tomorrow IMHO! If I'm wrong then we should all be happy, including me!!

Hi Ahfam - The clarification by Tim at the investor meet was that 900k would be payable in January if they solved the solubility issue as this was when the 9 month timeline expired (9 months after they sent over the data pack). A number of people thought it was 9 months after the contract was signed which would have meant 900k in December. However, when I questioned Tim he confirmed that if they solve the solubility issue early they can also pay the milestone early. Food for thought.

Hi Cobalt. I'll comment on what I said and what happened after tomorrow. I never said I was a fortune teller, it was just my opinion and at the time I seem to recall that a lot of people agreed with me. GLA

Major comment by BMS about looking to distinguish themselves on the safety front. If this becomes the key differentiator then with our 'excellent toxicity' profile we are sitting pretty!

Bridges - I quite agree. It's clear to me that they need this (in fact desperately need this) to be below 2p.

Blastoid - Our SP is being manipulated. The MM's are doing everything they can to keep us below 3p. Once over 3p we become a £100m market cap company and that puts us in the sights of bigger players and they won't be able to play their games. 30% more shares were bought than sold today yet the SP 'drops' 9%. The continual late reporting of big buys is very worrying but shows how desperate the MM's have become in their tactics.

Its in the full year results slides so yes, it was covered by Tim in the Investormeet session.
'New formulation developed to enable high-dose toxicology studies and dose-finding studies to continue
• Excellent tolerability in initial tox studies; potential therapeutic formulation identified'
You have to keep going until the dose proves fatal and that's been the problem. My understanding is that even if the therapeutic does is 10 times lower than what is administered during tox studies you still have to keep going to find the level at which the mouse keels over. The key phrase is the potential formulation identifed so that you can go even higher than 10x the therapeutic dose. If the mouse is still allive then its MFD!

My understanding is that they've resolved the MTD issue and its just a question of getting the data accepted that will allow them to go the MFD route. 1801 certainly doesn't have the formulation issues that put FLT3 on the backburner for so long.

Potnak - if its not possible to deliver high doses in order to find MTD then there are other acceptable routes that meet toxicity regs - Maximum Feasible Dose being one option. When testing on mice it may simply not be possible to make a high enough dose in a small enough formulation for it to be administered (a bit like squeezing a quart into a pint pot). We don't have a problem other than we can't find MTD - as Tim said 'its a good problem to have'.

A post from many years ago but worth revisiting considering where we are going with TYK2 (Covid, Cancer and Autoimmune).
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/23894/sareums-positive-research-will-attract-potential-development-partners-analyst-28522.html
Its the final bit that caught my attention :
“Sareum’s SKIL technology platform will likely provide for a generous amount of new research opportunities,” added the analyst.

“The technology is used to regularly screen kinase enzymes providing sufficient lead generation for new Sareum programmes.

“The technology could be of interest to pharmaceutical companies looking to generate their own lead compounds and, as such, has earned its own embedded value in our valuation of the company.”
Nothing was licenced at that stage and the SP was 1.8p with a forecast of 4.2p. On this basis our current 2p is so far below our actual value it's laughable. I was never really sure how much SKIL was worth but on this basis its probably worth a minimum 2.5p on the current price. Our big position builder I suspect knows this.

Good to see that the IT person is back after a heavy weekend. The mouse has been fed and the hamster wheel oiled. We should be able to chat for the next 20 hours or so. Buys outpacing sells 3:1 and the SP spread carefully managed to be red while the MM's sell everything they can and the day traders pile in.

Hi Potnak - I think we were raped by the MM's this week. Time to return the favour! I also agree with Searle that the news pre-Xmas could be substantial.

Ok, so here’s my opinion on what will happen next week. And its only my opinion. Today the MM’s have manufactured a little drop so that they can manufacture a gain on Monday. That will kick off the buying by the day traders as they anticipate news from the Sierra update due on Wednesday. The SP will be blue on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday Sierra will release their last quarters trading update and there will be no mention of accruals for 737. Looking at it from Stephen Dilly’s position I expect he has no desire to put out an accrual when he doesn’t have to and he won’t want his SP taking a hit because he’s flagged up a cash drain. On top of this if there is anything going on with 737 it will almost certainly be the subject of a NDA. Dilly doesn’t have to accrue until he’s signed a contract/contract revision or agreed to the next phase and that would require a RNS which we haven’t seen. I’m of the opinion that we will get news on 737 before Xmas, possibly mid/late November, in which case it will affect the next 10Q in 2021, by which time it will be old news. In the meantime the MM’s will manufacture a drop on Wednesday to cover the positions they pumped on Monday and Tuesday. The Wednesday drop will be designed to scare people into selling so that the MM’s can vacuum up the shares they need. However, with so much news round the corner my expectation is that the LTH’s will hang on while the day traders bail out as quickly as they can! The Breakout will come but let’s get this over 3p and stuff the MM’s!! In order to stuff the MM’s you need to either hold or buy. Your choice. All the above IMHO and based on what I have observed over the last few months. GLA and apologies if I’ve burst any bubbles, keep the bubbles for a little longer. Sorry Basil.

Fadec - I agree, I think it's just putting out something that mentions the pathway without thinking through the ramifications. Going forward I'm reading more and more about the only long term solution to Covid being anti-virals and therapeutics. Bear in mind that the Flu jab does not cover all the flu variants. It's at best a guess as to which variant will be most prevalent but doesn't cover the entire spectrum. I believe it will be the same with a vaccine - it won't protect against all the variants which means there will be an ongoing demand for staged therapeutics, something that boosts an immune response, something that manages early stage symptoms and something that works in late stage symptoms. There's a potential role for SAR in this and that's what the grant and the next few months are all about.

Fadec - That was my first thought but on reflection I think you might need both (GOF and LOF). Boosting the function could lead to the earlier onset of the cytokine storm in which case you would need a 'booster' followed by a 'moderator'. I'm sure that bigger minds than mine are already looking at this.

The clue is in the thread title!