Member Info for risehall1

It is astonishing for what was a small company to be gearing up production so rapidly and to have such a big order book in such a short space of time. Very unusual times.

I have a sneaking feeling this could be a very big week for Novacyt. There is a lot of news in the pipeline.

In case you weren't aware some dumba$$ at the NHS wrote a cheque for £16 million for 2 million unapproved useless antibody tests from China that didn't work despite not having seen them nor knowing where they were coming from. No refund yet either!! I can't see the NHS being in a position to negotiate a discount due to the imbalance in supply and demand.

I would be very interested to see the forward guidance. If that is the sort of order Novacyt are getting the sales book will be huge. France?!!! USA??!!! Middle East!!!??

And is in addition to existing agreements. The scale of demand internationally must be colossal.

Why not just wait for the forward guidance in the financial results due any day now? Some are assuming with increased volume the price per test may have fallen. However, despite there being more than one manufacturer test kits are in high demand. So prices may have actually risen or be static. Remember the US distributor was saying the kits were on back order til June. That in itself could also result in over ordering if health authorities place larger orders in antipation that there may be a shortage of supply or that prices will rise. The more kits that are manufactured also usually increases profitability - the more you sell of a product it usually becomes cheaper and more profitable to manufacture due to economies of scale.

Vaccines are complex to develop. It took 5 years to get a vaccine for ebola. The HIV vaccine development has been ongoing for 40 years and a huge effort has gone into that. Also factor in the fact that billions of doses are needed. Did you know the UK currently has NO capacity to mass produce a vaccine even if we developed one.

We are in very unusual times. To achieve such a rapid build up in sales is astonishing and unheard of.

Conincidentally, Taleb's hedge fund was up 3600% in March. It would not suprise me if they are invested here. His investment strategy for dealing with "black swans" like covid 19 is to buy into investments which benefit from the resultant chaos and disorder. So he would look at things like Begbies Traynor, the insolvency specialist, vaccine makers like GSK, pharama companies, Dignity plc (funeral provider), gold miners. And sell everything else or short it!

Fwiw I think there is going to be a huge sell off at some point. Markets have priced in a fairly quick v ahaped recovery with countries simply lifting lockdowns and business returning to normal. I think things are looking a bit more pessimistic than that. So I am expecting a correction. But Novacyt is what Nassim Taleb termed "antifragile", one of the few shares whose performance should get better the worse this pandemic gets. Taleb wrote the book "The Black Swan".

Nothing goes up in a straight line. It has to consolidate as the share price has risen so fast so quickly. No end in sight for this pandemic yet. No let up in demand for test kits. Plenty of news in the pipeline on sales, direct pcr and the US. Don't expect an rns everyday.

Hopefully with some forward year guidance. I guess sales figures may improve a little over 2019!!

On Sky News now giving his twopeneth worth saying the only way to get out of this is mass testing and that will be a huge logistical exercise, that the government needs to be gearing up for this now.

A lot of people in New York are big, those stats may just reflect their population. I still have nightmares after a fat woman sat next to me on a United Airlines flight to Denver. She nearly crushed me to death. She was huge. The thought of getting stuck between huge bewtocks still haunts me til this day.

The reason the government is so interested in antibody tests is that some lazy f###wit in government seems to have thought it would be best if everyone just got ill with the virus and the weak and elderly died off leaving the young and healthy with immunity - the "herd immunity" approach. At the outset that was quite convenient as it meant the lazy politicians and civil servants did not have to bother sorting out supplies of PPE or arranging testing. The politicians were, however, bright enough to award themselves a £10,000 bonus for the hardship they would have to endure staying at home!! In the aftermath the government thought they could just do an antibody test to confirm people had immunity, and then it would be back to work as usual and their gravy train would be back on track. The problem with this approach that is it has now been shown that not everyone develops immunity after having the virus, it can be caught more than once and no effective antibody test has been found. It also comes at a massive cost in terms of mortality and economic damage. The government is also assuming that a vaccine can be found. That is a big mistake. HIV has been around for about the last 40 years, still no vaccine!! Imho they need to be prepared for worst case scenario, that the vaccine is difficult to develop and could take decades. We are ruled by a bunch of lazy, incompetent, self serving f@@@wits. Against this backdrop, there will be no limit to the potential success Novacyt will enjoy. Right product, at the right time. We do have some very skilled hard working people in this country, but unfortunately none of them work for government or the civil service.

Tomorrow or Monday, but tbh I'm not that bothered when it arrives, it will come. We know sales will have increased significantly anyway, it is the US news I am interested in.

The US is the biggest healthcare market in the world, 42% of a multi trillion dollar market. The US market for Novacyt could be as big as the rest of the world combined. That is why details of US sales and the US manufacturing agreement could be great news for Novacyt.

Another shorter? Dude, you are about to get shafted. If I were you I'd go buy some vaseline. If it has sold out, try chill paste.

I did notice that vaseline had sold out at the supermarket this evening. Shorters panic buying? You sound like someone who has gone short and is about to get badly shafted. Well, that will teach you a lesson for trying to screw small investors.

Novacyt are supplying the tests. Neither Astra Zeneca or Glaxo make tests for Covid. Funny how the big boys get all the publicity but it is actually Novacyt who are critical.