Member Info for risehall1

If Novacyt say they are going to buy back shares and will pay up to 12 euros per share, it seems to me that pretty quickly that will become the market price. Why would you want to sell at the current price, if Novacyt are in the market hoovering up shares at up to 12 euro a share?

It isn't just air travel demanding testing though, the NHS, care homes and employers in the food industry are also wanting weekly testing. There is huge demand out there.

The longer it is for the update the bigger the figures will be, plus Novacyt should now be benefitting from authorities stockpiling in advance of the winter flu season together with sales from new products and mobile testing.

The market is assuming it is a short term one off, but also there is caution because the stock has risen so much so quickly. For a pharma stock the pe ratio is absolutely crazy, ridiculously undervalued. At some point the markets will wake up to this, I think it will take solid sales figures. The outlook for at least the next six months now seems to be growing demand.

A lot can happen in a day never mind seven days. Synairgen rose about 500% in a day after news of their clinical trial were released.

You would have to be absolutely out of your tiny little mind to short this share. It has risen a lot in a short space of time but look at the level of sales, pe ratio and ebitda. Bonkers undervalued. In a few months the market cap will be covered by cash in the bank.

Paris is flying today.

It is not crafty, were not playing games. Market sensitive information is always best released first thing in a morning and never on a Friday if you want the markets to soak it up and respond positively. Releasing key updates an hour before market is due to close reeks of amateurism.

The charts look good and it is consolidating nicely but the most telling things are market cap and price earnings ratio which are crazy in relation to the level of profit Novacyt is now generating. The market is currently pricing Novacyt on a one off short term surge in sales. If sales increase further and continue into 2021 Novacyt will be way undervalued.

I really don't want Novacyt to make an acquisition unless there are very compelling reasons. Often takeovers seem to end up as expensive disasters and costly mistakes. It would also divert time and resources at a very busy time.
Novacyt have done well through outsourcing production and organic growth. They would be better off investing in R and D, paying a small dividend and building up a cash reserve for future business growth.

This is not another Sirius Minerals. To any objective investor the problems with Sirius Minerals were self evident. I sold out at a profit early on. The finance director resigning hsving only been in the job a few months was a good clue that the finances did not stack up and made me very cautious. The price of potash was much lower than when the project was first considered. None of the majors bought into the project (aside from the sale at a knock down price). The cost of financing and building the mine with the requirement for a very long tunnel under the national park was too high and too complex.

I think it is a mistake to treat Novacyt as a pharma stock and assume it will need a "moat" in the form of patents, it is more of a mass market medical equipment supplier. Drugs cost hundreds of millions to develop and that is why patents are essential to protect the investment in intellectual property. In the current market Novacyt still has first mover advantage. It is in a position where it's products are in production and it has scaled up production and can take on big orders. Demand for testing is still increasing exponentially and there is a shortage of test kits.
It is all very well competitors having good tests in development, but will they get to market in time? Our government is already tendering for the foreseeable future and planning for winter. Novacyt is in a position to tender, the competition aren't.

If the company is making tens of million in profit each month of course it should be paying dividends. Businesses exist to make profit for the owners. Of course, dividends are a rarity among biotech stocks, so it will also cause the share price to soar. Win win.

The UK alone has taken a £300 billion plus hit on this pandemic, it is likely that all governments and many large businesses will be spending vast sums in future years maintaining preparedness including testing capacity. Great outlook for Novacyt.

If South Korea are suffering a second wave the rest of the world stands no chance, they have handled it very well so far but numbers are starting to rise. Demand for testing will continue to rise. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8414161/Fears-coronavirus-second-wave-South-Korea.html

If Novacyt are supplying WHO it won't be 600 tests, overall the demand will be millions. Great news!!

It isn't going away anywhere. Cases increasing in Spain and South Korea but at a low level and could flare up into a second wave if left unchecked. The places handling it best are doing a lot of testing and tracing, distancing and good public hygiene. Demand for testing is increasing.

The media were reporting a shortage in India too which bodes well for Novacyt. Novacyt should be in a position to increase productipn further as they are now manufacturing across several sites.

Some countries recovering, others getting worse, flare ups in places, multiple waves. The overall picture is one of rising demand for testing. And it isn't a steady increase - 50, 100, 150, 200 - this is an exponential increase, it's growing, think 50, 200, 800, 3200, 12800. Novacyt share price should be booming. Market is in for a shock at some point with this one. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they have to further increasing manufacturing cspacity. Look away from the UK to latin america, india, middle east and read the news because covid is wreaking havoc out there.

Just give it a few days and those shares will be gone. They got em cheap so I think they will sell asap at whatever price to recoup the loan costs. They may have forward sold them, who knows. Globally the number of covid cases in increasing exponentially, i.e. the rate of growth is increasing. Demand for testing is rising too. Hospitals in India have run out of test kits due to increasing cases.