Member Info for risehall1

Not only are global cases of Covid 19 increasing, they are increasing at an exponential rate. We are also seeing areas getting second waves like Iran and other areas with localised flare ups. I don't think demand has peaked for testing yet and Novacyt are exporting to 130 countries. It is a mistake to simply assume that as cases are falling in the UK that everything is back to normal, it isn't and it won't be for sometime.

Yes and something has happened behind the scenes because government is suddenly wanting to quarantine people coming into the country despite having had open doors for months. Now another uturn on compulsory wearing of face masks. So it seems government are preparing in case things take a turn for the worse.

Add Iran to that list as they seem to be having a second wave after lifting their lockdown. Localised hot spots and further waves will be with us for a while yet as will the need for testing. Covid has not gone away. Countries and regions are at different stages in the pandemic.

That is something that Novacyt need to explain. I am assuming there is some sort of confidentiality agreement in place.

Doesn't the RNS say shares will be issued on the 9th and I would expect them to be sold then or soon after to recoup the loan monies?

If you were a big pharma co developing a vaccine you would have a good idea how long the need for testing might continue plus the ability fo further scale up testing. The market for diagnostics may have changed with Covid. Clearly testing is mass market and it is profitable. Plus I reckon governments are going to be spending a lot more on future on pandemic preparedness and they are going to have to pay to maintain testing capacity.

Remember that interview in the Times with Mullis. Didn't he say something along the lines of Novacyt having had a lot of interest? Plus there is the mysterious oem agreement in the US which appears to be the subject of a confidentiality agreement.

Has there been any price drop? We have had no evidence of this because there is no detailed breakdown of production and prices. Profit may actually be rising. If overheads are largely fixed and you sell 10 million units rather than 2 million, that's good. Sales figures look healthy and globally demand is rising.

It is just France that is the problem. You would have thought it would get the full backing of the French government in their home market. But, sales of £120 million certainly support a market cap higher than this.

It is very odd to have a company having massive sales and approval from every medical body, but the French government not backing it in their home market despite it being used everywhere else simply because of a bureacratic rule. Only in France. And I can't understand how this does not breach EU competitive tendering and free trade laws as the whole point of the EU is that products sold and marketed in the UK can be sold and marketed in France and other EU states. And they wonder why we want to leave the EU.

Given the apparent lies over testing numbers which included counting tests being posted as a "test" and counting each glove as a separate piece of ppe it would not surprise me in the slightest if other figures are being manipulated.

Ok. £20.88

Directors don't buy shares to prop up the share price and won't usually risk their own money unless it is a safe bet. I am expecting very good news, demand and production rising, bumper high margin sales. We have had no indication of demand for the new dpcr product or pricing, that could be £ millions in extra sales on top of the 10m+ kits a month.

I have shares in Greatland Gold and in mid March the chief exec was buying shares at 2.77p. He has more than doubled his money as they are at about 9p now. Directors are best placed to know where things are headed, so follow their money.

It doesn't really matter how accurate antibody tests are though if immunity from Covid 19 is only shortlived and you can get reinfected. The usefulness of antibody testing is based upon the premise that you become immune from covid 19 after you have had it. The government were assuming that some sort of herd immunity would develop after people got ill then recovered. Research from University of Amsterdam cited in The Times and the Daily Mail today casts doubt on immunity being long term. I think demand for Novacyt's test may continue much longer than has been anticpated.

There are articles in both the Times and the Daily Mail today reporting research from the University of Amsterdam on coronavirus antibodies which suggests that immunity to covid 19 is short lived and may only last up to 6 months. That might mean antibody testing is not particularly useful as having had covid 19 will only give short term protection and it throws the idea of immunity passports into doubt.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8347391/It-prevents-pneumonia-Oxford-professor-defences-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Demand for testing could continue for years. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB14shaz?MSCC=1590154277&ocid=spartandhp

Article in Guardian today citing top US expert William Haseltine. He says a vaccine shouldn't be counted on as they have not been able to develop vaccines for sars or mers yet and the mucus membranes in the nose are particularly vulnerable. He says in absence of a vaccine the only way to control the virus is by tracking and tracing, good hygiene and social distancing. He says politicians are treating a vaccine as a done deal and that is a mistake.

It mentions the exsig test being described later, do they mean 2nd rns due?