Member Info for risehall1

The media is absolutely full of covid news and I reckon sentiment towards covid stocks is improving. Looks like a herd of bulls is headed in our direction. But I wish this would all end. We are in for a long winter.

If it is the case that Novacyt are primarily supplying the UK that is trully fantastic news given that the government say they have totally underestimated capacity and need to rapidly increase testing.

sorry o.55p, just over half a penny. Been a good ride and the rocket is still on full thrust. Not really worried about when to sell as I think GGP will either end up being bought out by Newcrest or end up paying bumper divis when Newcrest start mining it.

I first bought shares in GGP at £0.055p.

do you reckon he regrets his share sales now?

They have tried to explain it away as a bottleneck in processing at the labs but that wouldn't explain why not only the testing centres lack capacity but there are no kits to send out either. Government has had all summer to sort out testing. Yet another screw up.

There is a really serious problem brewing this winter with seasonal flu and covid. The proportion of hospital beds occupied by covid patients in Spain has already risen from 3% on 20th August to 6% now as they battle a second wave. Quite a rapid increase. That is with masks and distancing and local lockdowns. In a normal year the NHS would struggle with flu, but with covid as well?

Also, if you think about say, a care home and can only process one sample at a time per machine and each sample takes 90 minutes, it would be very slow and labour intensive to test everybody.

These dnafudge machines seem to have very limited use to me. They say they can do up to 15 samples a day at 90 minutes to process a sample. Well you would have to be working each machine 24hr a day to achieve 15 samples. In reality in a working day you would be lucky to process 4 or 5 samples. They seem to be of limited use to me, from an unknown untested outfit.

Have Greatland hit the jackpot again?

Well actually there looks to be a China connection with Mondrian if you look at where their money is invested and where it has come from. It wouldn't suprise me at all if they did build a stake because the Chinese seem very keen on investing in any strategic asset or high tech business. Of course, their interests are entirely benign.

If Abbott are immediately planning to ramp up to 50 million units a month for October there must be massive unmet demand out there. Incidentally, do the maths - at 50 million units at $5 each that is projected sales of $250 million dollars a month, which is $3 billion dollars a year. Mind boggling. Massive market. Will be interesting to see the figures for Novacyt.

Interesting if Cramer is pumping testing stocks. Perhaps a herd of bulls is headed our way.

Production capacity? Likely sales? Sales update? Current demand?

Bungle is a really cool name along with Zippy and George. Witha name like that you can't fail to make a fortune investing. Bungle is the new Buffett.

If and when demand for Covid testing comes to an end Novacyt will be in a position of having no debts and enough money to finance all their future expansion plans. They will have built up a lot of contacts and distributors globally. Market cap is still only about £200 million, at a margin of over 50% on diagnostic products they wouldn't need to generate massive sales to generate a reasonable return. PE ratio is ridiculously low for a rapidly growing biotech company though demand for covid testing may decline - but the flip side to that is that if turnover does continue at anything like current levels it is crazily undervalued. Future looks fairly rosey to me. Novacyt have come a long way in a short space of time, but they certainly rose to the challenge.

If the level of sales and profits continue from June by the end of year Novacyt could have in excess of £100m profits. Novacyt have no debts and their products are on the market with growing sales. The share price can do whatever it likes, I will hold as will most others I would imagine.

Shares can rise on low volume if buyers outweigh sellers. I wonder what a predator would make of this. If Novacyt are now sitting on circa £50 million profit plus research tax credits, figure in no debts, forward sales over next 12 months. It is a sitting duck for a takeover. Or look it another way, they could easily buy back 10% of their shares or easily cover a dividend at 5% for the next few years.

Volume in France looks non existent, need to be patient with this one. It needs a production update and a sales update, though the longer this takes the bigger the figures will be.

For small companies it is best to keep the markets updated regularly, particularly if the company is going through a rapid period of change otherwise it can make the share price very volatile.