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Novacyt showing as second most bought share on HL website today.

Great to know that work is being done to cure lung problems in mice. I just hope it will benefit my old hamster Mr Biggles. Having smoked 40 Lambert and Butler a day for many years I was worried chinese flu might finish off his poor little lungs.

Many commentators in the pharma industry said GW Pharma would never be successful because the cannabinoids present in cannabis which are of pharmacological interest cannot be patented. That, together with lack lustre sales have not stopped GW Pharma achieving a multi billion market capitalisation. Markets are not rational. These test kits work and there is massive demand. I reckon Novacyt will continue to do well as will any pharma business trying to help in the fight against coronavirus. Right product at the right time

I am not a conspiracy theorist but the more that becomes known about this virus, the more suspicious I am that it originated in a lab and has been engineered. It can spread asymptomatically (so hard to detect and control), it is very contagious, it causes high levels of serious illness (so inundating hospitals and crippling countries healthcare systems). It is kills people, but not too deadly like Ebola. The lower death rate makes it a slow burner so it can go on slowly spreading for months and years. It can reinfect people. If you wanted to create a biological weapon to harm an adversary, you couldn't ask for much more than covid 19. If I were in government I would be asking a lot of questions of experts and the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Inhalers like ventolin are in short supply and there is no evidence they help coronavirus. Other steroid inhalers could make the virus worse as they suppress immune function. They are essential though for people with asthma and if supplies ran out it could be fatal for severe asthma sufferers.

Yes, there are a few risks, as with any investment, but I reckon things are looked good. 1. Government restricts export of test kits because they are needed here or nationalises Novacyt; 2. Demand will tail off once the pandemic is over; 3. Virus mutates affecting reliability of test; 4. Supply of Novacyt test kits limited by raw materisls and manufacturing capacity. 5. Novacyt offices affected by an outbreak among staff. 6. Investors get caught on a spike. I can't see scenario 1 happening as the government have said they want free trade as there are key supplies which have to be imported like PPE that the UK needs. And if the UK did need to restrict export that would mean unprecedented demand here anyway. And the UK govt don't believe in nationalisation, they are for free markets. Scenario 2 will happen, the pandemic has to come to an end sometime and so demand for covid 19 tests may eventually fall. However, that won't stop Novacyt msking substantial profits and the intellectual value inherent in companies with testing expertise is likely to be much greater in future - Novacyt itself may well get bought out by a big pharma company. Scenario 3. Novacyt are constantly checking their test against mutations and so far the test is 100% accurate and seems to be one of, if not the best on the market of it's type. Any competitor would face the same risk. Scenario 4. Novacyt has derisked their supply chain by bringing in third party manufacturers. Now with the backing of government, WHO, Cambridge Uni, Astra Zeneca and GSK I reckon any problems in terms of raw materials, reagants and manufacturing capacity will be overcome. Scenario 5, test kits are now being manufactured in more than one location and so the supply chain has been derisked. Scenario 6. I reckon SP still has further to run. Follow the money!!

An interesting comparison of another hot AIM pharma stock is GW pharma which has now moved onto Nasdaq. Market cap of GW pharma is just under $3 billion (but has been much higher). I believe GW's sales are still fairly lacklustre and it isn't turning a profit but it was the darling of the market for cannabis pharma stocks. Gives an idea of the trajectory Novacyt may be on.

Trump certainly won't be ordering cheap kits from China either. If it can be designed in the UK and manufactured in the US were onto a winner.

We really need details of the US oem manufacturing partnership. Trump was given $2 trillion dollars to spend and he doesn't care about outbidding others to get what he wants. Could be a very large and order from the US!!

Or seeking approval for an antibody test.

An order from US govt.

To be careful if you were thinking of selling at £3. This is headed for £1 billion plus market cap.

Very strong move over £3 and that is an important level as many small investors had that in mind as a selling target. So there must be massive buying pressure.

Which begs the question have Novacyt been developing an antibody test?

£1 billion plus market cap on the way. The only constraint on Novacyt will be their ability to produce enough. But as Novacyt already have manufacturing agreements in place, now with the expertise and backing of one of the world's most prestigious universities and the manufacturing know how of two of the biggest pharma majors, I tend to think they will be able to overcome any obstacles to reagant shortages and ramp up production. All I can see is blue sky as far as the eye can see.

Be careful buying the dip. Is this recovery real? Have we seen the bottom of the market. Airlines, cruise firms posting 30% up today. Why? They will be lucky to get through the next 12 months. We are only at the start of this pandemic. Lockdowns save lives but trash economies. As soon as they lift the lockdowns, the virus will start spreading again. I don't think we have seen the end of this virus yet, nor the bottom of the market.

Begbies doing well over the last few days, though I expect this has much further to go given the economic situation.

There have been many, many AIM failures, but the successes have been trully spectacular. The most obvious pharma example I can think of is GW Pharma which is now listed on Nasdaq. Novacyt is proving to be an AIM success story.

Based on market cap I still think Novacyt is too cheap. I bought into GW pharma at 50p and sold out at £2 but it carried on rising and rising due to the buoyant market for weed stocks (GW pharma develops medicines from cannabis). Novacyt has the right product at the right time. We are only at the beginning of this coronavirus outbreak. The only constraint I see at present is keeping up with demand.

Careful setting price limits. Demand is almost infinite for the product. The constraint will be on the supply side. Wait for confirmation regarding partnerships with big pharma and the US manufacturing oem agreement before trying to value Novacyt.