Member Info for risehall1

No one knows how covid will evolve and mutate. Not so long ago the experts were telling us it would not mutate much if at all, this is clearly wrong.

It is when tracker funds buy in that it really sends the share price soaring. Once you are on their list of allocations, the more they buy, the price rises eventually, they then have to buy more to match the market cap. It is good having Fidelity and Blackrock on board, should attract more funds.

Something is going to come left of field and send the share price soaring. The UK government is not the only government throwing big money at testing.

The share price is about to soar. Little birdie told me so.

There is an article in the Guardian about the SA strain. The only way they can differentiate it at present is via genome sequencing and this only happens with between 5 to 10% of samples. So numbers of SA strain cases could be wildly under reported. If only Novacyt could produce a variant test to differentiate between different strains...

Novacyt - double top or cup and handle formation?

At some point it will bounce hard. But all this could have been avoided if management had just taken five minutes to add a paragraph into the last RNS reiterating future plans and having a stab at some forward guidance.

Whilst some may rush to bank profits it is worth remembering that Thermofisher just paid $450 million for Mesa Biotech plus a further $100 million if performance targets are met. Mesa was acquired for their ability to produce point of care tests. In total that would be 12x their 2020 revenues of $45 million. If Novacyt were valued on 12x their revenue you get a market cap of around £3billion. Novacyt has nearly £100 million cash at bank and no debt. It looks like a target for a cheap takeover.

The results were excellent, that level of turnover and profit for an AIM stock over such a short period of time is astonishing. It is the wider market that is not so clever, and the fact that covid testing demand will fall at some point.

Wider market correction and a bit of panic selling triggered by Gamestop phenomenon. Who would have ever thought that small pis acting through social media could bring down short sellers. Lot of hedge funds and institutions having to sell long stocks to cover their shorts. Remember an avalanche starts with a single snowflake. Once selling starts, it triggers more selling. Novacyt have no debt and are sat on a big cash pile with at least 6 months of high demand. I think it safe to hold or buy. All my stocks are down today.

Swabbing Captain Stanley needs a special procedure to make sure it is done properly. Swab his rear end first then his throat to be doubly sure.

I don't know what is going on with HL at the moment. Service seems to be declining and they don't seem to care. They could suddenly find themselves facing a mass exodus of customers.

Interesting government news briefing today. The UK variant is now thought to be more deadly. So much for covid getting weaker!! And there are concerns over the effectiveness of vaccines against Brazilian and SA strains. Not good news really.

I hope the next mistake does not turn out to be the policy of only giving partial treatment through once vaccine dose.

Thermofisher just paid $450 million for Mesa Biotech to boost their point of care testing. Mesa is privately owned so there is no share price to value them by, but $450m is a multiplier of 10 over their 2020 revenues of $45m. Will be interesting to see what Novacyt's revenues are and multiply by 10... and Mesa was acquired for it's point of care testing solution.

The problem is not so much the Brazil variant, it is what has happened there, and what this tells us about coronavirus. Last spring the city of Manaus was particularly hard hit by covid with around two thirds of the population infected. Less than a year later, the city has been struck by a new outbreak of covid and seemingly a more infectious variant than the first outbreak, with mutations which mean it is sufficiently different from the first strain that the virus is able to reinfect them. So much for herd immunity, and it may well be that a new vaccine is needed every year as with flu. I have a feeling we may be fighting coronavirus for a while yet.

Small fry... you might want to check out the history and current market cap of Qiagen together with their market share. From small acorns do mighty oaks grow... if Novacyt follows the same growth trajectory as other successful biotech stocks why wouldn't a predator be interested?

The FCA investigating... I wouldn't hold your breath. Have they ever prosecuted anyone?

Poor Mandy. I bet she gets more post than Santa Claus. She needs an assistant. That youth who does the Novacyt Insider would do.

I did notice Blackrock now have a very large stage in Qiagen, over 13% I believe.