Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Only a small portion of the way through that video but interesting statement when talking about the research:
"We've pretty much commercialised....."

Ink still drying?

I'll eat my hat if it gets bought for £10bn. I'll even have to buy a hat ;)

By the sound of it you do Nolupus :p
I think you're going to have to change your name to SentimentSponge soon ;)
I'm guessing you ballsed up and reduced your position hoping to buy at 41p and this rise is annoying you somewhat!

Anyway, rumours or not, bullsh*t or not, the price has been rising pretty much since the open, and the profit takers/traders look to have finished, and there is still buying coming in pushing this back up, whether it's PIs or IIs in the background.

Relax. Enjoy the sunshine. Enjoy the rising price. And chill out waiting for trial news. We'll find out soon enough ;)

Nolupus - to be fair I don't think anyone has taken it particularly seriously (if anything the exact opposite) and I think most people are pretty confident SNG will have some success. Don't think this random poster has changed anything in that regard.
So basically - no.

oilornothing - "One does question how they have come up with this figure without knowing how much the drug will sell for and how much profit will be made per dose when sold."

They don't. The analyst should have some experience of the sector and try to guesstimate things based on what happens in the wider sector. Or have discussed things with the company. The company itself probably isn't even at the stage of finalising any pricing and may well be in discussions with large pharma to do that for them (whilst preparing to market it themselves - as per the fundraising RNS allocating money to preparing the supply chain). Essentially everything is a guesstimate.

Hardcore1 - what are the company going to say?
"Yeah we've had great success, but not updated the market, but we'll tell you, allowing you to insider trade" :p

Doctors/nurses MIGHT have an idea that their trial ward is doing far better than comparable wards and therefore the drug is working. It's very unlikely they know which is the placebo and which is the drug and therefore couldn't give opinions on the SNG001 patients doing much better than then non-SNG001 patients.

Yes.
£1.20 is a risked valuation for now.
It doesn't mean the forecast is silly it's just a product of a guesstimate of worth upon success (£3.60p) discounted by risk factor for not succeeding.
The thing is, because shares like this, that hinge on results of trials (albeit three trials in this instance), the discount for risk can be a lot bigger because you're not taking a chance on a share rising or falling gradually, like in many other industries, there's the risk of big fall if things didn't go well. Some people won't take that chance even if for a big reward.
If you think of it like this, they've tried to assess what they think it might be worth upon success (£3.60), but they've discounted it by two thirds to account for the risk of not succeeding.
The short term share price doesn't reflect value, it's just a product of the short-term trading, whether that be PI's buying/selling, or IIs.
IIs often influence PIs and there's been a flipper here (who may or may not be done now).
If there's a pick up in buying this could rise to 80p and the potential value and chance of success would not have changed. Simply the short term trading.
Ultimately it's up to everyone, as an individual, to assess the potential value, and chance of success, to determine whether or not they think it's a bargain or not, based on that chance of success, and the potential return.

Yeah, it's not £1.20 target price, without COVID.
Their valuation is £1.20p for right now, pre-results, including COVID risked.
Their target is £3.60p post-results if there's success on COVID.
Their allocation of value for COPD is pretty stingy imo though (or let's say conservative).

Lol, no need to tell you where to go Nojjer41, fully justified ;)
(although in reality - it's just doing multiple things at once - lack of care and attention - and trying to ensure the post is fast/timely and therefore relevant!)

Fecks sake (done it again).
41 to 43p obviously.

Bid up from 41 to 31 now.

Interesting JBER (Berenger) are on the bid. They're not one of the more common/active MMs on AIM stocks. Wonder if they're accumulating on behalf of a private client.

A vaccine is still unlikely any time soon. Most experts are suggesting Spring/Summer 2021 at the earliest. Great if it happens sooner but it's not very likely on known evidence (media loves to hype things). Then it's got to be distributed and rolled out en-masse which will take quite a while to get to everyone!
There's also concern for other COVID stocks (like ODX) about antibody tests not being particularly useful, antibodys not being long lasting, and placing an extra burden on the NHS: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53169618
So an actual treatment for the virus will still be hot property for a good while yet.
And obviously this is just a bonus....because if it's shown to work in COPD....then that's a game changer here regardless of COVID.

Back to 45p on the ask....

Seriously Punit.....do you have to keep posting nonsense here?
If it rises 3% you say it's definitely going to be 100p tomorrow and if it falls 3% you're into deep despair.
Please come back in 6 months....it'll be good for you and the rest of us.

I hope we see a TR-1 saying they're out just so everyone can stop talking about them!
They're just a distraction from what could be company making news at any moment.

oilornothing - I posted that previously as a musing for a possible reason/explanation but I'm not sure it's strictly following the rules and they should notify down through each %age threshold (or have the broker do it for them). Can't find anything to suggest that should excuse someone (the rules wouldn't make much sense if that was allowed). Either way - it doesn't really matter - as it clearly happens (unless all the times it happens they're all single off-market transactions in one go).

Nolupus - yeah, hence I gave the warnings about TR-1s to people previously. The disclosure rules are pretty loosely followed by many. If they went from 9% to zero in DDDD then it's either a sale of the entire block to someone in one go, off-market, or they should have been notifying along the way through each % threshold. The same could easily happen here.

antofelli - Again, there's no definitive answer to that, however I would think it's likely that (assuming they get decent numbers into the home trial) they'll have enough data for it to essentially be a phase III in all but name, and expedited into production. The company's own releases (and media) suggest they're planning for the ability to be producing millions of doses this year which wouldn't make a great deal of sense if they thought they were going to do another longer trial.