Member Info for Rebess

If there's going to be a production/profit warning, they'll probably wait until close-of-play tomorrow in order to shelter behind the holiday-break. If they do, it'll be a very cruel and cynical way to give us all a Xmas present.

YHi Miz
Yes, I'm inclined to agree with your thoughts here. - It's a bit late in the day isn't it? - It's just, well, it's Centamin we're talking about.
All the best to you miz.

Of a production/profit warning coming in before the end of the year after El Raghy's authoritive statement of 8th Dec proclaiming that we are on target for lower-end. - I ask because these are the sort of tactics I've come to expect.

Hi Philandlynne
Endeavour would be merging with Centamin - The arrangement with EMRA is through Pharoah Mining, a seperate company of which Centamin owns 50%. - So, presumably Edv would take-over the 50% that Centamin owns.- It's a good question. - I rather think that Centamin would be treated as a subsidiary and operate as such . - Not sure.

In expressing my point of view, I should have given special mention to Tibbs. - He is on a plane far above any of us. - His contribution is enormous and much of it behind the scenes that many are unaware of.- Thanks Tibbs.

Indeed Tiger and Mike
All contributions welcome, especially if they are counter to mine. - Most of the stuff I post I'm hoping that I'm wrong. - I love to read all the posts, there's such a variety of inputs from the analytical to the the mining-pros to the old-timers and so on and so forth and all posted in a wonderful spirit. - Long may they continue.

EMRA's quick and supportive response is a red-flag for me. - Intriguing or what?

Never forget that all the participants here are buddies and well known to each other. - Do not underestimate the deviousness of the Centamin board. Hell, you've all had plenty of experience by now. - With Centamin, nothing is ever what it seems, nothing.

My money's on Endeavour. - The Sawiri/Egyptian connection is very strong, moreso than any other connection. - The sort of maneouvering and commentating that we are seeing is to be expected, in order to present the pretence that their approach is unacceptable. - How cynical can you get? - This is extreme even for me. :-) -

Talking of leaks; Pardey's good at that when it suits his plan. - We'll see.

Has anything ever been simple and straightforward with Centamin?. - Not for a long time. - I remember a film starring Michael Caine, 'The Ipcress file', I think that was it, well this is 'The Egypt file' playing out. - It starts with the court-case.- Intriguing isn't it? Trying to join the dots up. Let's hope the sequel dosn't turn out to be 'Funeral in Cairo'.

Good question dealts and an important one to many here I would guess.

Let's not kid ourselves. - It's a done deal.- Manipulation and collusion has occurred, at great cost to shareholders I might add, to bring this situation about. - I should also add that this is my opinion, my interpretation, based upon my long experience of being a shareholder and my observations of how the board of directors has conducted itself. There's always been an aire of mystery surrounding Centamins operations. - The court-case, Josef's sales, The official maintaintainance of guidance in May 2018 suddenly changed 3 weeks later, The fall in momentum following through into 2019, The sudden change in tac in reporting, the silence. The silence broken by a 'Hint' from Pardey no less, not an official communique, a 'Hint' and all of us wondering why he'd done it. Suddenly the fog is clearing, a pattern is emerging, pieces of jigsaw are now fitting in to place, the unexplainable is now becoming explainable. - I am seeing the light. - Conspiracy theory? - Maybe. - You will all have your own opinions.

Hi dealts
The dots join-up here way beyond the bid itself. - The Annnual report this year 'Headlined' the exposure to being a one-mine operation. How nicely that stament has fitted in with the rationale promoted by Endeavour. - The mysterys surrounding some of the actions now begin to fall into place. - The 'Hints', which none of us could understand at the time, which caused the SP to plummet. Pardeys involvement. - The Sawiris connections. - EMRA coming out in support and so on and so on. Many of the unexplained features of 2019 now become clear. - This is a done-deal in my opinion. - It started in 2018 and 2019 was manouvered in such a way as to accomodate the situation we now find ourselves in. - By a little stretch of the imagination you could even see a connection with the mystery of the uncontested court-case and all that has involved. Another mystery that if truth was known, all formed part of a strategy to one day take control of Centamin.

Hi Downhill
No, not a fan of conspiracy theories, just a LTH with long experience of how Centamin operates.

It's possible that what we are seeing is a charade, a pre-rehearsed response, designed to display resistance and rejection when all the time it's a done deal. - Why am I so cynical? - I'll let you answer that one.

Agree Prof. - If we do achieve lower-end and equally importantly carry this momentum into Q1, I think we will motor. - What we don't want is a precipitous fall-off in production forecast for Q1 with promises of catch-up later in the year. The market tends to view this in a bad light. - We need to turn a corner somehow, turn over a new-leaf, whatever, in many aspects of the way we conduct our affairs, let's hope that 2020 is the year we make a atart. - I would pose a question: - Single mine issue apart, is there any Gold mining company that holds a better hand of cards than Centamin?

Hi Prof.
Who knows, the intrigue and credibility issues still remain. - If you are right, it's going to compromise El-Raghy's credibility, who, with only three weeks to go and presumably in posession of facts, has just declared that we will meet lower-end(490k) forecast. If it turns out that this forecast is not the truth, then it will highlight in the minds of many, the quality and integrity of the people who are running our company.

Wise move I feel removing Pardey from the centre asap. - We'll never know of course, but I have my deep suspicions about the role he's played over the last couple of years and the position we are now in. New blood welcome, providing his intentions are in accord with taking the company forward in the building and development of the hand of cards that Centamin holds. .

Hi Marmot
Excellent post, a lot of good detailed content and reasoned argument. - You should post more often. :-)
Good luck.

Hello Chanticlair
The latest pronouncement on Q4 status, if I have understood correctly, was made by El-Raghy on 8th Dec. - It would be reasonable for anyone to think that with only 3 weeks to go before year-end, he, more than anyone, would be in posession of the latest production facts and figures. Since he has declared that Centamin is on track to meet lower-end of forecast, (490k) normal people, using simple arithmetic, would have to conclude that targets are going to be met. - If it wasn't for the experience I've already had with Centamin and their false-flag announcements, I might also be tempted to conclude that we've made it. - However, going back to my chess analogy and my experience thus far and also the timing and synchronisation of El-Raghy's statement and the Endeavour approach and my overall cynicism thrown-in for good measure, I will not be convinced until it actually becomes fact. The only thing I would add to this is, that If El-Raghy's statement proves to be wide of the mark, then the duplicity and sheer brazenness of the Centamin board knows no bounds. You would think they wouldn't dare try it. - Don't bet on it.