Member Info for Rebess

Hi Dansul
Financially, supported by an increased gold price, it could well be. - However, since the company has engaged in the science of 'Hintology' in letting us all know that Q3 production will be lower than Q2 and therefore under forecast, I believe this is the metric that the market will pick-up on. - IMO

Again a worthwhile contribution from our old-friend Cowichan. - Keeping us all informed.
Many many thanks,

Hi Philand lynne
Of course, and that's what we were railing about. - We've been set-up for two beatings from the same bit of news. - Just liked happened last year. - We've had total silence in between the quarterlies and now this. - WHY? - There's a reason, believe me. - I've apologised to management today on the basis that I posted the wrong figure. However, my criticism as to managements conduct when it comes to forecasting and news management remains intact

Hi Philandlynne

I do like your post, especially as it highlights that my 40% figure is wrong. Like you, for the purpose of calculation, I have assumed Q3 coming in around the Q2 mark and assumed a cumulative total of 350koz. - To go from 350k to 490k requires a 40% increase. - However, thanks to your post, I realise my error. The calculation I should have shown is the requirement to increase from a Q3 production of 117k to a Q4 production of 140k , an increase of around 20%, as you suggest. So, I agree with Sotolo, that is probably achievable. - In my defence, although I don't really have one, I did invite MrBond to challenge my figures with his own. He didn't, nobody did, except you, and I'm so glad that you did. I personally feel so much better now. I am uplifted. I'd like to apologise to all of my fellow posters for scaring them. Also, I believe I owe an apology to Centamin management ,which I give, unreservedly. - Finally, well done Philandlynne, you've made my day.

Hi goldnome
I usually refrain from making political comment on the thread, but your post makes some very valid points. - It shows what the powers that be can get away with when they can influence/control the media. Social media apart that is.

Hi MrBond
You will note that the bulk of my construct is based upon figures and not just criticism. So, let's see your figures, let's see how you see it all panning out. - I don't mind you having a go at me personally, but sniping from the sidelines is not much of a contribution is it? - So, come on then, I invite to trump my post by laying out your arithmetic.

Hi Tibbs - If the hint they gave in the recent investors presentation proves correct, then it is an impossibilty that even 490,000 can be reached. - Back-loading their forecast to the second-half of the year, gives them time to construct a strategy that allows the deceit to continue until it can't. - Q3 was/is the moment of truth and now they have sneakily dropped the hint. Yes an RNS will be winging our way with a reduced target/profit warning.

Error: Apologies, Q4 will require a 40% uplift just to meet the minimum of 490,000 not the 22% I posted. Got my knickers in a twist confusing previous calculations. - So, 40% not 22%- well, nobody need respond becaus it's an impossibility. - Just like last-year, the Autumn put down, to cover the deliberate lies and deceit that they call their forecast and upon which millions of £'s worth of investors money has relied.

Q4 last year produced 137,600 oz, a 17% increase on the previous qtr., only to collapse by around 16% going into Q1 of 2019.
This time around Q4 will need a minimum of 22% increase to reach lower-end 490,000 and that assumes that Q3 is equal to Q2. Anything less, which is muted, then clearly the % required increases. - Any takers?

Q1 came in at 116,183oz - Q2 at 117,913oz - Total for H1 of 234,096 oz - However, only 224,129 oz were sold in the period due to timing of closing weekly gold-shipment. ??? - Ok let's see how that fits-into the financials next time around.
So, if Q3 is likely to be less than Q2, obviously it depends upon how much less. - But even if it's the same, bringing total production to around 350,000oz, this would leave a Q4 requirement of 140,000oz to reach the lowest figure in the forecast of 490,000oz .- Clearly, every oz below Q2 that Q3 comes in, adds to this figure. - Never mind the 500,000 oz that Dasut would like to see, does anybody think it's possible to reach 490,0000z? - There will be a new warning winging our way any time soon I fear. Guess what that will do?

Yes, I agree the POG could be a straw to clutch. - But all it means is that Centamin continually negates a benefit that we should have had anyway. - It's just the perpetual continuam of 'Down a snake' syndrome.
Q3 was always going to be the 'Acid-test'. The Quarter that tested the veracity of the narrative contained in their forecast. Q3 will tell the truth more than any fine words or phrasing. - It's the Quarter that will provide the clue as to whether they really can increase productivity by as much as 22%, to meet the 45%/55% H1/H2 split. - If they can't, then it reveals the deceit contained within their forecast. - And deceit and misinformation are characteristics they have perfected. IMO

Of course Dasut. - Twas ever thus. Just like last year, a double good-hiding for every bit of negative news. - We thought the 'New-look Centamin' had learned from this and had tailored their new methodology of 'News dissemination' into avoiding this phenomona. - So far there has been total silence in between quarterlies. Not a whisper and then, 'Wham, take that'.

Wouldn't mind betting that a revised forecast/profit warning will be forthcoming in the coming weeks. - Watch this space.

Hi Dasut - Indeed, the reference in the presentation to Q3 being less than Q2 and that year-end is likely to be at the lower end of forecast, is actually a veiled threat. Bearing in mind, it is contrary to their earlier statement that output would grow Qtr. on Qtr. -It's almost a repeat of last-years contradiction. Of course investors are going to sit-up and take note of this and as you suggest, take flight/panic. Taking account of this managements history of double-talk, the reaction is understandable. BTW, it wasn't a mistake in my opinion, it was, by design, a deliberate action. Make no mistake, they knew what they were doing and there actions and the uncertainty they have spread, will probably, now, have thrown a dampner on the SP for the forseeable future. Probably until the annuals next-year. - Does it all sound familiar? - It should.

Hi Dasut - Your comments are valid. - There's one thing we have learned over time, investors are easily spooked by the utterings of Centamin directors and more especially by the 'nuances' contained in their words. - It's happened so many times now, we thought that lessons had been learned. - Something else though I've learned, there's usually a reason behind their apparent faux-pas.

As outlined in my previous posts: - Q3 was always going to be the acid-test of credibility. - Requiring a stair-step upwards in production to confirm the rationale behind the forecast.

correction: - Should read ' a massive 22% increase in production in H2'

Very familiar pattern I'm afraid. - The back loading of forecasting to avoid having to reveal the truth. - H1 45% - H2 55% - requiring a masssive 22% in H2 to meet forecast. - Not possible. Forewarning of lower Q3 is a precursor of worse to follow. I believe there is now a strong possibility of a manufactured mine-incident to cover-up for an even worse Q4. It will be a way of saving face.. - I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast percentages flip-flops. H1 becoming 55% and H2 45%. They used the same tactic last-year, except it was a breakdown of essential equipment for which there were no spare-parts, when in truth, it was a problem with grades all along. - I have a feeling something is about to be conjured-up to achieve the same outcome. - Hope my cynicism proves to be over-the-top, but my lack of trust is telling me otherwise.

Why was there a need to make todays presentation? - The new-look Centamin is/was supposedly restricting anouncements to calendar-reporting days. - I think we were all in favour of this new-direction. At the very least it stopped us getting beaten-up twice on the same news. Well, unless I'm totally misreading the situation, and that's always a possibility, it looks as though we might be in for a double-doze again with more to follow. - I agree that the POG could be a mitigating factor in that profits will increase in line. - In summary, it might be the 'New-look' Centamin, but it's beginning to look like the same 'Old story'.

If Q3 does fall short, then the real good-hiding will come on relase of numbers, with the realistic possibility of further beatings to follow.