Member Info for Rebess

Well Dasut - They are around 18% down on Q2 which by any measure is a disater, especially taking into account that they were supposed to be at least that much more han Q2. - Work that one out. - But I'm not complaining, not yet anyway.

If todays SP continues to defy my prediction, I shall be minded to engage in predictions more often. :-)

No initial hit which has surprised me. At first, I thought Santa Claus had been, but have decided to wait until close-of-play before relaxing. - Even then, there's still tomorrow for reaction to news.

If the SP hadn't already taken two hits from the hints dropped by Directors, then it would be carrying a lot more weight going into tomorrows announcement. - Of course, the hit would still come, but the SP would have been more robust and in better shape to absorb it. - Why oh why have they done this? - There must be a reason.

Hi Dasut
I'll look forward to your take on that. - It'll be intersting to get a 'Pros' analysis and some sort of direction.

If it proves the case that Q3 comes in below 100koz, I believe 92k has been mentioned in a hint, there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of even coming anywhere close to lower end of forecast, (490k). - I know they have stated that full-year will be toward the lower-end of forecast, but that is just a lie, a bare-faced lie at that. - Hell, they'll have to produce miracles, between 160k-170k to do it. - Blatant lying is what they do when it comes to forecasting, it's become genetic with them and it's how they destroy shareholder confidence/value. Surely, everybody must have worked that out by now. - If they can produce between 140k-150k in Q4 it'll be a miracle and although it'll still leave us well short of lower-end forecast, the improvement in production might just take the sting out of a complete disaster. - If they can. - So much for the 'Cowards' forecast of weighting it towards the second-half of the year and playing for time rather than telling the truth. - I wonder how next year's forecast is going to be geared?- - Also, I wonder how they will communicate next year. - Quarterly silence until it suits to drop hints.

Hi Market
I'm picking-up on your last sentence that this may be the last time you sign-out. - I'm sorry to hear that, you've been around forever. Even after spells of abscence, when you do post, you are always well received and that's because posters here have a fondness and respect for you and I want you to know that.
With regards to my personal investments, it's something I deliberately avoid discussing. Some openly discuss their personal holdings and the amount they hold, sometimes in a bragging way, but that's not my style. - I have never done it, I never will. However, I don't mind you asking. - I am an Ambassador for Kinesis and I have mentioned the prospects I see in their vision. I've done this on the basis that it is a gold/silver related investment and felt it might be of interest to posters here, but without being specific about my personal holdings. - Good luck . - Hope to see you again. - Rebess.

With the likelihood of increased gold-price to be reflected in Q3 results, just to have been on or near forecast would have resulted in a goodly bounce I feel. - It doesn't happen like that with Centamin these days does it? - If it's not one reason it's another that perpetually sends us down the snakes, usually based upon managements central theme of deceit. - It's very much a part of their forecasting model now.

I'd love to believe you are all correct with your bounce theory. - With the devasting production news that is about to unfold on Wednesday, I think 'Bounce' is not the verb that will describe events.

23rd I believe - next Wednesday. - Wipeout-Wednesday! - Tin-hats and body-armour required I fear, for our third good-hiding from the one bad bit of news.

Hi Tiger

Absolutely spot-on. - What I can't understand is why they have done it? - In my opinion, it has been done for a purpose. - What that purpose is of course is anybody's guess.- Time will tell. And you are right, there has been no official communique. - Some commented on his body-language at the recent Denver convention, his awkwardness, his uneasiness and this coming across as being unprofessional. - When you address such a distinguished and respected body such as was present in Denver and deliver bare'faced lies, it's hardly surprising that he was uncomfortable.

The 'OFFICIAL' quarterly figures will soon be presented, whereupon, no doubt, there will be a third adverse market-reaction based upon the same news, even though the results are pretty much pre-known through the unofficial-reporting process of hinting. - This must surely be in contravention of reporting rules. Hinting is the dispersement of inside information. It isn't as though it was just a junior member of staff being careless, it was the CEO no less. I can only conclude that it was done deliberately and in the full-knowledge of what the consequences would be. - The problem I have is trying to work out why they did it and why would they want bring about such a situation.

Hi Dasut
Forecasting is a central part of financial planning. In mining, production forecasting is an essential guide going forward and perhaps the most important indicator for would be investors and why professional people, skilled in the knowledge of such matters, are employed. You can't just say, when it suits, that we weren't expecting this or we weren't expecting that, markets won't accept that. - Even companies just issuing profit metrics as a way of reporting, usually offer earnings-growth as a guide/forecast to would be investors.

Hi Prof
The tune/song that I am reminded of: - 'Why, why, why, Delilah!

The mystery for me is why have they chosen to communicate sensitive information regarding production using 'Hints'. - They've kept to the new arrangement of 'Quarterly reporting' all year until now. Suddenly, that philosophy is scrapped, resulting in the devastating effect we have seen unfold, with more to come. Moreover, they would be aware that this would happen. - So what's going on? - Why have they done this? - They didn't have to. - They could have waited for Q3 reporting day and whilst the bad news would have had it's affect, at least it would be only the one-hit instead of the three and the resultant pummeling we are having to take. - Why? - Why? - Why? - There must be a reason.

Hi Groover
What's a lot of trades? - Can you provide the details please.

Hi Dasut
It's a good question - Why have they chosen to engage in an act of sabotage by hinting at what is about to happen? - Why?
If they'd kept their powder dry until Q3 results when they could have outlined reasons and startegy going forward, we would have still taken a hit but likely only the one-hit. - So why have they done this? - Already with two good-hidings attached to the one bit of news with at least another one on Oct. 23rd. - Are they f***ing sadists or what? - I can only conclude that they know what they are doing and they know the devastating effects it will have on their shareholders, What I'd like to know is why they are doing it? - What is the motivation behind it? - What do they expect to achieve?

I refer to a double whammy, but that is being conservative. - If the figures mooted today are true, and they are more than likely to be so, then the cascading affect could be quite dramatic. - The numbers of dominos falling over here could be quite high, extending into next year and beyond. - It's a complete re-run of last year. - The Denver conference confirming guidance, then three weeks later an about face. - And now this years Denver conference, confirmation of guidance towards the lower-end and within a couple of weeks, todays announcement more or less stating the impossibility of this statement. The bare-faced deceit is mind-blowing. - All from the people we are supposed to trust. The lack of trust that emerges out of managements credibility now is as big an impediment as the results themselves. - Markets don't forget so easily. - AIMO

Sotolo thinks that 'The warning' is already in the price. - I don't! - How many times have we suffered a double whammy? - Well, it's about to happen again. - Make no mistake. - Also, where have these figures come from? - Unofficial numbers, hints. - We all thought there was new-thinking in play with regards to communications. It seems there is, only it's worse than before. The numbers now are impossible to achieve I would suggest. - Which of itself must also cast serious doubts over the recently issued longer-term forecast. - The greatest risk to Centamin is that it is a one-mine operation. And yet, instead of retaining earnings for expansion, to minimise this risk, for growth, with a view to enhancing returns on capital employed, (ROCE) they have been wasted on generous dividends. Time and time again the value of the dividend is being wiped-out by the fall in the SP. - What a waste! - What a price to pay!

Since I hold certificated shares and therefore not reliant on a broker, I receive payment directly into my bank account from Centamin/Registrars, I can confirm that my dividend was showing in my account first thing Friday 27th. It will be the same with all certificateed holders,. Barclays, Halifax, all of them.