Member Info for Rebess

Thanks for your feed-back. - Much appreciated. - If we can maintain/sustain current market enthusiasm, I'll be a very happy man. - Although I have highlighted my current reservations re Q1 forecast, overall, the increased forecast for 2020 could be acting as our lifebouy.

One notable point: - Q1 hasn't been quantified in relation to forecast production. - Instead, what they have done this year, by comparison to previous years, is to weight annual forecast 510k - 540k, 60% H2 and therefore by definition 40% H1. A clever way to forecast perhaps? Taking a median point of 525k, means H1 production forecast of 210k. Divide by 2 gives us a Q1 forecast of 105k. - A massive divergence from Q4 2019, which raises questions/doubts in my mind. - Make no mistake, this represents an extremely low-ball forecast for Q1. - So far, we appear to have gotten away with it, let's see what happens when it all sinks-in.

Hi Dasut
Well, you're our pick n shovel man here. - We rely upon your input/experience in trying to complete the picture.

To miz:
When apple blossom fills the air and spring brings back blue-days and fair.

It isn't just numbers that will be under the microscope on Thursday, but also 'Management'. - When the curtain is drawn back, will it be the same-old - same-old, or will there be a new roadmap, a new-style, a new-direction? - Cowichan's post in summarising previous management proclamations and comparing them to the actual, brings into sharp-focus the apparent apathy and indifference that was previously on display. - His summary, actually, is quite shocking. - Let's see what we're in for on Thursday. - Let's hope we're shocked in a good way and that even miz will find hope.

Hi Prof
Indeed, it would be nice. - Let's hope Q1 represents a new direction in our travels. - A direction that brings new meaning to the outstanding fundamentals that are a part of the Centamin story.

Jan 30th one of the most important dates in our 2020 calendar. - A Q1 forecast in line with yearly forecast and we should maintain our current momentum. - A low-ball Q1 with promises of making it up in the second-half, as per last year, and the markets will knock us back I feel. We were told that grades had improved in achieving our impressive Q4 result. - Q1 forecast wil either confirm this or otherwise call the claim into question. - If we start the year off on the wrong footing with our SP down a snake, it is likely we will spend most of the year playing catch-up, as in previous years, with the market watching and waiting for signs of improvement. - Any increase in the POG will be nullified by such an event, for whilst it will reflect in our price, it will serve only to bring us back to where we started. - It will be another wasted and frustrating year for investors. - So, heres hoping for a good Q1. - IMO

Thanks Tiger
Impressively, hit guidance for the 7th year in succession. - From a Centamin investors point of view, that's 'Enviable'.

So, the Government, through EMRA, can form it's own company to compete for any licensing that may be on offer. - I'm having difficulty getting my head around that one for now. - No matter, no doubt things will become more clear over the coming days and weeks. The immediate thing that springs to mind is that if Centamin loses the cc and since EMRA owns all of the assets of Sukari, they then can form their own company and exploit the 160km themselves, utilising Sukari assets that are within trucking distance.- I must have got that wrong I think.- I'll let that one rest for now and see what comes out of it all.- It's just that I have always maintained that there is a reason that the cc has not been settled. - I'm paranoid. -

Great posts Tibbs from the maestro.- A lot of info. which I had forgotten about. Clearly, you hadn't and indeed why should you.
It's an amazing thing is it not ,that after all this time the courts have not found time bring it all to an end. - I wonder why. It's not what we know, it's what we don't know.

Until Siko's post reminding us of the current state of play, I hadn't realised it had been so long - Here we are, 8 years on and it seems the Egyptian legal system is not capable of bringing closure. - Amazing, so pending an appeal decision by the court, we are free to continue as per the original licence. - It still begs the question; why has this not been finalised? - There'll be a reason it hasn't. One that we may have difficulty getting our heads around, but there'll be areason.
Gnome - Thanks for your link and summary.

You wouldn't have thought would you that they would risk investment in the disputed area if there was any risk? - It's likely they have sought counsel on the issue and have been advised that they are within their rights. - I suppose if a ruling has been suspended, then it is not in force. - It's a tricky one.

I'm losing track because it's been so long now. - I thought the area outside of the 3km of Sukari was still the subject of legal-dispute, brought about by AlFakHarany. - There is ruling against the licence covering the area beyond Sukari, made by the court, which was suspended pending further court-hearings. - Long term holders here will recall the numerous times that court dates were set only to be cancelled at the last minute and replaced by further dates and so on and so on. That is still the situation today. It's true that contracts have been provided to the court as proof, however, the ruling against is still in place I believe.

I don't think a share buy-back increases the market-cap, thus making it more expensive to be taken-over. - It does increase the SP and dividend because the market-cap is divided amongst fewer shares/shareholders and is therefore beneficial in that regard. But, insofar as being taken-over is concerned, I'm not sure that the arithmetic works any differently. - It could depend on whether the shares bought back are cancelled. - Not sure. - Others amongst us may know.

You've put a lot in on all our behalfs. - You know, what a difference a positive message coming out of BF or CdI would make. Talk about adding strength to the SP. It's what we need urgently.

The biggest deterrent going forward will be a strong SP. If the company can get it's act together in this regard, potential predators will need a big purse. - Equally of course, a weak SP makes us extremely vulnerable, even more so after this latest episode with Endeavour. It's why Q1 forecast is so important. A significant divergence from Q4 will punish the SP I feel. If however, forecast is in line, or thereabouts, with 510 - 540, I think the market will reward us. Anything below 120k will not be good. Anything significantly below 120k and I fear we'll be hammered. - So 120 + , I believe will be well received. IMO

Btw i agree 100% with Tigers comments. The latest episode has revealed much and we have never been more vulnerable.

Thanks Siko
Encouraging news - maybe it is all beginning to happen.

Hello Dasut
Yes I am in agreement with the points you make. - I was of the opinion after Q3 that it was impossible to achieve anywhere near 490k to achieve lower-end forecast. As you say, all credit to the team that did it. - Mind you, it depends how they did it. That is the unknown at this stage. - If you recall, it happened last year as well in Q4 . only to be followed by a quarter that by contrast was so low as to collapse the Sp, thus undoing the progress we thought we had achieved.- Q1 forecast will reveal much I feel. If it follows the pattern of last year, our celebrations could be short-lived. If, on the other hand, Q1 indicates that Q4 wasn't a one-off, then we could be looking at a whole new ball-game. IMO

We are where we are, as has already been said 'We dodged the bullet', - So now what? - Where do we go from here? - The new mining law, when we get it, could create expansion opportunities in Egypt. Hopefully, we can take advantage here if and when it presents. In addition, we have our 'West Africa 'assets.- However, it's unlikely that we can have expansion in both mine assets and dividend growth. So let's get real. - What is the priority? - For me it has to be expansion. We have to change the 'One mine status vulnerability' - We are already exploring the 160km beyond Sukari, even though it is still the subject of unresolved legal-dispute. Still an achilles heel this one. - The immediate future is our focus for now. If we are to maintain progress, Q1 needs to be a reflection of Q4 success. - A low-ball forecast and back-end loading, will affect our current status i feel and likely send us down a big fat snake, from where, we spend the rest of the year playing catch-up.

Centamin fundamentals have been outstanding for a long time now. - The only thing is, they haven't counted for much. - Of course, it's what's kept us hanging on. - Surely, such outstanding attributes will be recognised we thought. - It didn't happen. - I think the market's perception of management had a lot to do with it. - There were some scathing reveiws by recognised commentators. - If this can change. If new management can be viewed in a new opportunistic light and support this with results and new direction, then the outstanding fundamentals might come to mean something. - However, if they plod on in the same weary way, content in the picking-up of their free share options and bonuses and dispensing profits into dividend payments, with no apparent ambition to do anything else, then the fundamentals will carry little weight. IMO