Member Info for RayPointer

I know. It was just my attempt to be funny with all the talk of probabilities.
ATB

Now about that Burnley bet.

No that was Knowlesi.

What is the probability it will be cancelled LOL

What are you putting in that tea:-)

The point I made was that you do NOT add probabilities together

Exactly Ruck we agree :-)

I beg to differ.
Have a read of probability theory.
And have a look at the example I quoted.

Heads/Tails 2 tosses

the following outcomes, all equally likely in this example
HH
TT
HT
TH

So the probability of getting at least 1 head is 3 in 4 i.e. 75%
Not 50 + 50

Firstly
You cannot add probabilities together.
Example 50% chance of getting heads on the toss of a coin
For 2 tosses the probability of getting 1 heads is not 50% + 50% = 100%

But regardless of that, do Scancell want to run phase 3 trials and then carry a product through to market?
Scancell have never given any indication of wanting to do that.

I actually like to read the Trinity reports since it gives a load of information in one place, but I take the valuation with a Siberian mine full of salt :-)

"Ray yes they do use industry averages but their risk adjusted DCF measure of valuation is very standard practice in the pharma industry."

But how many turn out to be correct. I would hazard a guess at none.
IMO It is impossible to value a company like Scancell. So, outfits like TD fall back on industry averages. It's an obvious cop out.

Trinity will use industry average probabilities for trial stages. They cannot say, because it is Lindy Durrant, we will adjust the probabilities.
My money too is on Lindy.

IMO, 2 years of cash in the bank is of more importance. in fact, I would say essential.
That and Cliff taking lessons on how to talk to pharmas.

More to the point Knowlesi, it would be interesting to know your opinion on how Scancell will fare over the next 2 years.
It is good to air different well reasoned opinions.

Now you are flirting

Yes, we shouldn't forget Biontech in all this.
Thanks for reminding me.
That may be the next focus of CH's attention after Avidimab.
It may even be happening as we speak.

The point is that CH has now got the first big opportunity to monetise assets.
Not with Covidity but with Avidimab and the gylcans mABs.
It his vital that he makes the most of this opportunity.
As good as Lindy's approach is to Covidity, it is a long shot compared to the possibilities now presented with Avidimab.
What an Avidimab deal would do is to move Scancell up the agenda of big pharma, hopefully close to the top.

Yes, I agree.
But it is the quality of the science that has given them that opportunity

Ok I'll do that

Thank you Bermuda.

Here is another article that sounds very familiar

https://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/early/2019/03/20/0008-5472.CAN-18-2797.full.pdf

Dated March 2019, it seems to draw conclusions that Lindy arrived at ages ago.

2 sentences that caught my attention

"Vaccinated mice demonstrated a stronger CD4 T-cell response as assessed by
IFNg and granzyme B levels. Interestingly, healthy individuals
exhibited a repertoire of CD4 T cells capable of responding to the
citrullinated a-enolase peptide"

"In a similar way, Brentville and colleagues (77) vaccinated mice previously challenged with subcutaneous B16 melanoma
tumors with citrullinated vimentin peptide, observing an effective anticancer response with 80% of mice surviving after 50
days of the experiment."

There are actually 2 references to Scancell's work namely 76 and 77.

76. Cook K, Daniels I, Symonds P, Pitt T, Gijon M, Xue W, et al. Citrullinated
a-enolase is an effective target for anti-cancer immunity. Oncoimmunology 2018;7:e1390642.

77. Brentville VA, Metheringham RL, Gunn B, Symonds P, Daniels I, Gijon M,
et al. Citrullinated vimentin presented on MHC-II in tumor cells is a target
for CD4þ T-cell-mediated antitumor immunity. Cancer Res 2016;76:
548–60

Lindy does not get a mention since the list of Authors in these 2 references has been shortened so Lindy is actually part of "et al". You have to laugh.

Some are looking for 3.3