Member Info for Quiggers52

Balls...it`s "cajones"...

and yet at time of writing 8.7% up lol!

"Is force majeure a possibility?"
Possibility for what?
Force majeure is a boilerplate commercial contract clause. In and of itself, it has no specific legal meaning and is usually found as a defined expression within the specific contract but the form of words tends to be pretty standard across all sectors. Anyway, its effect is to provide relief of either party from their contractual obligations if a "force majeure event" occurs - there will then follow a long list: acts of God, storm, fire, flood, etc. etc. and then a catch-all "or any other event beyond the reasonable control of either party". However, this kind of clause is rarely triggered and it will not discharge or release a party from fulfilling obligations just because e.g. the market falls or the party in question has made a bad bargain.
It is not relevant in this context at all here I`m afraid.

"so basically all the counterparties will be stuck with expensive oil they cannot sell and will have to store it somewhere till better times"
Well the counterparty doesn`t physically store it themselves of course - so it is like if you buy gold; you don`t collect it and take it down to your friendly neighbourhood safety deposit box but the gold IS stored somewhere and of course that storage attracts a cost - which is passed on as part of the buy/sell trade. Same principle here. Olivia hehe/haha whatever - love that name (I don`t why it tickles me, but it does) is stored and the cost of storage will be passed on - in this case to the counterparty until they can find a buyer (and so on). Similar to the documentary credits system where commodities can be on the water for many months, during which time the ownership of such cargoes may change hands under bills of lading being negotiable instruments consigned "to order".

" Who is actually paying PMO $60+ for oil nobody apparently wants and nobody can store? "

I presume it is the counterparty to the underlying contract (who in turn were looking to on-sell for a profit).

Go higher go lower - 50/50, who knows? The point is making a call based on facts. At least if you are wrong you had sound reasons for being wrong. I`m looking at working capital and liquidity ratios. Not interested in Income Statement this is all about the B/S and specifically current assets vs current liabilities. In times like these goodwill and other intangibles are worthless IMHO. That is why IAG sounded the clarion early about having enough in the bank to ride this out - instils confidence. That worked up until recently where both they and TUI have dropped quite heavily. Both are hugely discounted from their year highs (68%, 69%) and TUI net debt/equity is 0.8 as opposed to 2.1 but AIG have double the market cap. AIG also £1+ cheaper. So of the two I lean to WW.

Take off...?!
Last full reported earnings 31/12/18 = £(9m) loss.
Last half year to 30/06/19 = £(6.3m) loss (unaudited)
(That was before CV-19.)
Feb - CEO resigns
97% drop in SP since year high
Last reported cash in bank only £5m (peanuts)
MC only £19.2m
Tangible assets of £175.6m vs total liabilities of £246m of which £94m is debt
The only thing taking off here are the IIs who are closing their positions. As for Henry Spain lol putting good money after bad (other peoples of course)...on a whim and a prayer and a punt at best.
Unbelievable.

I don`t like making predictions...especially about the future.

-O.W.

"Every one knows ...you don`t go full lock-down"

-Tropic Thunder [2008]

LOL

The announcement can stem the bleeding, but cannot prevent what is likely to be a dire summer for oil producers with the potential to drag oil prices below $20 (£16; €18).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52264546

Hmmm...when this spikes might be a time to sell and then buy back in later...

Rhetoric is talk with no support. From what has happened these last four days, it is absurd to say these positions are unsupported. They are a matter of record.
However, whether this is enough to drive confidence is another question entirely on that I agree but on the numbers, they are supported... there will be legal positions being (if not already) drafted and executed.

It’s my honest opinion that Olivia will drop later...

Why?

Where it gets tricky is with weighted averages.

assume:
100 @ 200p
1000@ 100p
10,000 @80p; and
2,000 @ 50p.
...?

How long is a bit of string ??

twice as long as half its length! Was in here Jan at 1.15 for feeler watched it all the way down to that mad day a few weeks back where we all woke up to a 70% fall down to 15p or whatever it was so bought in over time heavier and only now seeing some benefit. Hope it continues as we all do. Fingers crossed.

You need to decide upon your strategy and ask yourself am I in this for a short-term gain or long term hold? If the latter there is no bullet to bite; you will buy and forget about it for a year or 2 until you either sell: for gain or for loss of conviction.
If the former, do not get too worked up about missing the bottom. Last month, the greatest investor the world has ever seen lost $19m when he bought into Delta too early. Do you think WB is thinking about that? No. He is a long term player.
My guess is you wont be buying the dips. That is pure speculation. Sure you can see trends in this volatile market and experienced traders can make serious wedge but it won`t last forever and then it is back to reality.
Do the fundamentals, know why your are making your play. have conviction. And go for it.
And if you lose (or win) don`t winge (or brag) and come back stronger after learning why did I win/lose? But remember, there is always that element of luck or chance which is outside of your control so mitigate by diversifying your portfolio. Lastly, read, read, and read!!!

Don`t make the mistake of using hindsight ad fall into "what-if" thinking. If you sold BP now you would make 20 pence ps profit before costs if you sold. If the SP climbed to (say) 50 don`t think I just lost out on 10p ps.
Think firstly about not losing money. And don`t get greedy. And as others have said an unrealised profit isn`t a profit at all!
Day (hour) trading is much more profitable in this volatile market but obviously carries much more risk. So you might apportion some of your £ to long term holds and a lesser amount to more risky but more lucrative short-term positions.
BP is a good start!

Spare a thought for value investment fund Aberforth who bought 14.7m shares just over three months ago (RNS: 12/12/19)and have seen their investors` £18m fund shrink 88% to only £2.14m.
Not their best timing.
It would be a brave investor who goes near this at the moment.

I`ve got the WSJ open in front of me and there is nothing about $50B highlighted for aviation where are you getting that from ? in any event that is American airlines. Sunak has been clear in his letter - no hand outs save after other sources of cash have been exhausted. Exhausted? They haven't even begun yet. Expect nothing from him any time soon.

This really is punts-ville. Buffett buying into Delta 3 weeks ago has put Berkshire down by $19m. He would no doubt talk about the long view and he is obviously right so bear that in mind when you buy into IAG and you see the SP dip. "This too will pass" as the wise men said. I think I'm in tomorrow. Wall St is talking about the bottom being reached so it is now or never. (They coud be wrong of course.)
The big ? is what kind of IAG will come out of the other side? Nobody but insiders know that and even they don`t probably know.

Looking at correlation of SP and OP ...overlay on a chart and it is striking. Whilst OP is low, SP will remain low on historical data, forget forecasts.
Factor in CV19 and although massively over-hyped (1968 flu and 56 pandemics killed 1 and 2 million respectively but different times... not internet digitally-fuelled like a LOX rocket launcher) * a quick recovery appears overly optimistic. I`m waiting. The bottom is weeks or months off is how I see it until panic-measures are rolled back.
(* If I hear so-called journalists use the word "could" one more time lol - speculation isn`t news.)