Member Info for Quiggers52

At a SP of 100p Stoodio, with a discount from fair value of 60%, there are no musings.
It is just 1 +1 = 2. You might say.
Sure, we can muse about the "60%" and whether that is right or wrong (and on that, who knows?!)
But as for the method , well, it is what is is!

100/0.6
You are discounting from the wrong place. 100/0.6 = 166p. You are saying he is saying 166p is fair value.
Studio is not saying he is starting at 166p and that a SP of 100p is a 60% discount from fair value because it isn`t: 166 - 100 = 66.
66/166= 0.397*100 = 40% (r)
It is like 100 is standard, we agree you will pay 90 - i.e. a 10% discount. 100- 90 = 10. 10/100=0.1 *100 = 10%.
Same applied to SLP: 250 - 100 = 150.
150/250 = 0.6 *100 = 60%
Maybe I`m better at maths than i though lol

my maths ain`t great but SP of 100 discounted by 60% is 250p
[250 - 100 = 150/250 *100 = 60%]
so much for non-disclosure :)

Well, gold miners stock aint exactly flying atm as my CEY shares will attest to :(
I would have thought SLP would be more inclined to develop and exploit their home-grown" projects".
I mean it has only been, what, 15-years?

The thought never crossed my mind; I`m astonished to think that any person would actually resort to such desperate measures, truly very, very sad, anybody who does that.
I`m sure we can all agree.
I forget, what`s fair value with Rh at (say) $15,000 anybody? I cannot be bothered getting the spreadsheets out again.
About 175p ?? okay that will do.
Bankrak is pretty sharp on this - hopefully he/she will chime in.
Ta

Don`t worry, Velo is big and strong enough no doubt to take a bit of banter talking of which I've no doubt that bloke Mark will turn up now he`s back and support his idol lol.

Down 33% from recent highs.
Be a long time before this is £2. Maybe in a couple of years.
I can wait.

I make P/E cash adjusted at about 3 but 3, 5 or 6 is largely not relevant. You`re taking the 112p as the 50 DMA I presume, I use weighted and it is hovering about 114 so similar spot. Ben is house broker?

No problem! All is good.
I agree. Not sure what happened!!!
Value (intrinsic) like beauty is in the eye of the beholder. There is no singularly right or wrong answer. It boils down to many variables but one of the most important is risk appetite. X e.g. might like Base Jumping. Y might like Sky-diving. Z might like walking his dog in the park. They have different risk appetites. None of them is "right" at the expense of any of the others being "wrong".
I wrote a while back this is a bottom-drawer stock for me now. I keep an eye on Rh and leave it at that.

Wow, this BB is going downhill bit like the SP... to clarify something Chat stated, (before the page disappeared) I wrote 140p based on a discount rate of between 15% and 20%. If you lower that to say 12%, this is way north of 140p IMHO.

The issue here isn`t a down trend so ignore the -11m that`s bonkers; the issue is that in q1 and q2 net earnings were around 20m. they then doubled in the next quarter. I think it is fair to say expectations were (using an average) of around 30m so to come in less than half is a bit of a punch to the solar plexus.
To ignore that, to dismiss it, is to avoid the truth.
yes, long term, this will (or should) recover. But nobody in their right mind is saying today is a good day because of the way SLP present their numbers.

In a few weeks, we could have been talking about a 49% net profit margin for the year.
Instead we are looking at and talking about a 15% drop in the SP.
sigh!

So now we know (more or less) the full year 20/21
in £:
sales 140m
net profit 68.25m
net profit margin 45% to 49% accounting for USD/GBP fluctuation.

I agree. Unfortunately, the market does not however.
Why don`t you tell Jaco & Co to do that then at the next meeting,? rather than telling me what I already know (but thanks anyway) I`m just going by what the company reports.
the "I love a drop in share price" is great when youre not holding it, not so nice when you are. On that logic I should be screaming from the roof tops with glee if this falls to 1 penny.

At 102p SP, cash adjusted: -
EPS is 29p;
P/E is 3
Bottom drawer now, and forget about it for a couple of years in which case, I might get my 100+ % profit back.

A 4th quarter, 30% net profit margin in any other industry would be regarded as superb, breath-taking, etc. etc....
Here, on the other hand...
Welcome to the world of SLP.

costs up 22% to 27%
net profit down 64%
EBITDA down 51%
Basket down 11%
I had net profit numbers est. at around 30m so less than half., with 14m.
The "sales adjustment" at 98% is massive.
Will read through in due course.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6y8svsDQ/
tweezer bottom reversal (hopefully)
GLA

none

JW, I think it might even be cheaper! Making assumptions as to cash and next earnings:
Share Price [A] £0.98
Shares Outstanding [B] 272,473,865
Market Cap [A] * [B] = [C] £267,024,388
Cash less Debt: [D] £70,000,000
If [D] is: + then deduct from [C] / -, then add to [C] = [E] £197,024,388
Adjusted Share Price: [E] / [B] = [F] 0.72
Forecast Net Earnings: [G] £78,000,000
Forecast EPS: [G] / [B] = [H] 0.286
Cash Adjusted P/E: [F] / [H] 2.53
and
all in my respectful opinion, without meaning to offend anyone, E&OE, DYOR. Correct at time of going to press etc.
Does not seem to mean jack atm...
Seriously, peace to all
and GLA

By me, hereon, olive branch extended...
On DCF no valuation, I agree no method is perfect, nobody suggested so. In the absence of anything else, there is only relative pricing which is something completely different. Intrinsic value (DCF) and pricing are not the same at all. My only concern is to ensure I`m not getting ripped off. So when an M&A bank values a start-up at X million or billion and uses: e.g. (1) normalised risk free rates (because the current T-Bill rates are too low); or
(2) a discount rate of something silly like 7.56% (hell make it 7.563%% just to emphasise my so-called "expertise" - yeah right!! ) for a Venezuelan IT start-up; or
(3) includes cash flows to the firm when valuing cash flows to equity; or
(4) takes 2020 as the base (instead of normalising earnings) - both positive and negative
when they pull these kind of stunts I want to be able to interrogate the numbers and see it for the rubbish that it is and on that I agree -RIRO -(but that is Monte Carlo simulation more than DCF....Now we ARE entering Wonderland.)
It is all guesswork to some degree as no-one has a crystal ball but until somebody can show me something more valid (they won`t be able to because if it existed we would know about it and all of the business schools would teach it)
The only alternative is relative pricing using a multiple whether it be PE or EV/EBITDA. But that has its own negatives and some would say even more so.
So DCF is not perfect, nothing is. Relative Pricing certainly is not either. I use DCF to give me a "comfort blanket" and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
I should add I also use TA. I use a stochastic indicator to look at trends and buying on the dips. Nothing complicated and I find that really quite rewarding using it taking short term positions of (on average) 60 or so days.
Finally, on SLP I don`t think this is shorting. I think it is sentiment only. I look at Rh each day and it is holding steady and as long as that continues I will stay invested and average down (much like we all will, I expect)
GLA!