Member Info for Quiggers52

There are a lot of "conditions precedent" in the contracts. (the CPs). Perhaps this is why there is the hesitancy.
I`m not complaining. More power to load up.
GLA

Rift is right - see page 92 of the Admission Document:

Conversion of Founders Plan awards into Nil Cost Options
6.1.4.1 On each of 16 March 2024, 16 March 2025 and 16 March 2026 (the “First”, “Second” and “Third Measurement Dates” respectively, and each a “Measurement Date”), Founders Plan Awards will convert into Nil Cost Options over Ordinary Shares. The number of Ordinary Shares under any Nil Cost Option into which a Founders Plan Awards will convert will be determined by the Remuneration Committee on the following basis:

70% return in less than 1 year.
FFS, there is no please some people lol!!

why 40p?

Rh makes up about 9% of the basket and 50% of the revenue.

I note that although KIST have FCF of 66.4m the operating cash flows of 34.8m were not sufficient to avoid a loss for y/e 2021, the bulk of the FCF coming through financing activities (debt and equity in other words)
On today`s call, Paul M talked pointedly about FCF and using that as the yardstick for valuation.
I agree. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, but cash is reality.

If you ONLY run the FCF of 36m over the next 5 years alone assuming no growth at all and discount back at 15% = 85p.
Even that is conservative.
It is so typical how crappy start-ups with zero hope are doing down rounds at massive projected valuations (cue bankers fees) and this little beauty is valued at a quarter of a quid lol.
GLA

Final word from me. Promise.
Fitch, July 2022, assume Rhodium at :
$13,500/oz in 2022
$7,500/oz in 2023
$6,000/oz in 2024 and
$4,500/oz thereafter
Therein lies the reasoning for negative growth it seems.
Let`s hope they are wrong in their assumptions!
GLA

Before I get lambasted (or worse) I should point out I remain optimistic simply because as of today the market is valuing SLP from a base of say $60m earnings assuming no growth at all, quite the reverse: negative earnings "contraction" of (7%) annually over next decade, on a discount rate of 17.5% and a terminal multiple of today`s PE of 3.5.
That is implying utter meltdown (no pun intended) of PGMs. So somebody`s story is woefully wrong. Either they are right or we are all wrong. Or vice versa.
Time will tell of course!

Net Profit 2022 $Ms| `23 | `24 | `25 | `26 | `27 | `28 | `29 | `30 | `31 | `32| Terminal Value | -7.00% Y1-5
** $60.8** |56.54| 52.58| 48.89| 45.47| 42.29| 39.33| 36.57| 34.01| 31.63|29.42| 102.98 | -7.00% Y5-10
Present Value (PV): |48.12 | 38.08| 30.14|23.85| 18.88 | 14.94| 11.82| 9.36 | 7.41 | 5.86 | 30.47 | 17.5% Discount rate
Sum Net PV: 238.97 | 3.5 Multiple

I don`t think it is as simple as basket price measurable as against P/E. In 2016 for example, LSE shows SLP PE at 7.46. In that year the Group reported a basket of $850 on sales of $39,510,771 and net profit of $ 3,733, 535, a net profit margin of 9.45%.
Fast forward to 2021 where the basket was 4.33 x higher than in 2016 (it was $3,678) and we all know why. So if you do the math, 4.33 times 2016 earnings = $16.15m. That is like for like and ought to have been reflected in the PE all else being equal.
But SLP actually earned 6x that amount - $100.4 m and yet their PE dropped to only 3.2!!!
This - to my mind - makes no logical sense at all. It tells me the market hates the fact that SLP don`t get paid for 4.6 months (5 year average). They have zero pricing power. They lack growth ambitions. They are at the mercy of macro factors 100% outside of their control.
I agree with Luna and have said it before and have been shot down.
The market values growth. It values pricing power. Or it values a quick buck - just look at the scam which is SYME and how a legal Ponzi Scheme just keeps rolling them suckers in with another 60% + blue day yesterday.
SLP have smashed the numbers out of the ball park. They have a fabulous management with skill and discipline. They are exemplary. I love their accounts and transparency.
And yet the PE has not budged commensurate with earnings. At least not on the numbers above.
For me this is disheartening. I really hope we get some positive news about the projects and a direction of travel as to what BoD intend to do with their cash pile.
GLA

FY net profit of 40% is pretty heady, unbelievable really. [$60m net against FY sales of 146.2m]
I think Bang is taking gross basket price of $2,589. X production of 18,837 oz to give a gross basket revenue of $48.7m against reported 6E rev of $37.6m (being 77%). The inverse of that - 23% - gives a net basket of $1,994. At least that number is pretty near $1,804.
Broker estimate of FY sales of $166m looks a bit high.

CorrectAmundo! TT :)!!!!! lovin` it

I plugged in some numbers on a 5 year DCF assuming perpetual terminal value equivalent to modest GDP of 1.5%
with assumptions:
FCF: $35m
Discount rate: 15%
Growth rate (%): 5, 5, 3 ,2 ,2 (with 1.35% GDP equivalent for terminal year)
Cash: $20m
Debt: $60m
So hardly aggressive with a conservative discount rate/cost of capital
Value of equity in common stock: £264.5m
Estimated value/share: 100p
Taking growth down to 2% p.a. and 0.5% terminal = 93p
GLA

One way to do this would be to look at comparable oil companies (not an easy task) and look at their EV/2P ratio.
We know the 2P is 24m
Rift puts the EV at 180M
The EV/2P then is 7.5
You would then compare to this market. If comparable ratios were (say) 20, then this might indicate that the EV is on the low side and vice versa.
I have no idea what comparable oil companies would be. I`m sure the information is out there if you have tools to find it.

JHC !!!...if you are right, that brings me a 157% profit and I expect all LTHs on here are in the same, or similar, boat.
That would more than off-set my other losses to bring a decent return on what has been an awful bear market year so unless you short (I don`t) then hard to make any returns at all.
Remember, the S&P 500, that the brightest and the best people working for the top 500 companies in the World`s richest country, over the last 55 years on average, all those crème de la crème peeps working like bees and ants working flat out efficient, the average return of the S&P 500 is about 10% p.a.
Most, by far the vast majority, of hedge funds don`t come anywhere near that.
So the decision has to be made: Stay in, exit, or top slice???

Respectfully, it is not stupid which is a baseless position plucked out of the thin air not supported by facts.
Just look at the cash flow statements.
I never gave reasons. I simply stated two observed facts. When I see a man with an umbrella up I infer it is raining. Of course it might not be and he just likes walking around like that on his day out of the local asylum.
No doubt there are a million and one things which move markets in your "random walk" what are you going to do?
Well do what you want. I need a quick and dirty short cut. So I look at the cash flow statement. Both went down. The SPs went up. Those are facts. You can ignore if you wish. Your point (I think) is that there is no correlation between the two.
I disagree. I think it is plainly obvious that cash flow is important to valuation. Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality
But lets` beg to differ. When the SP falls and I`m convinced it will it always does it will I hope will be for short term. SLP is by far my biggest holding. It is in my interest to see it rise, me proved wrong, and I hope I am!

You are assuming logic and rationality. I wish.
Tesla cash flow down 5.1% - SP up 9.7%
Netflix cash flow down 3.2% - SP up 3.4%
SLP cash flow will be up - by how much is anyone`s guess, but what do you think will have to the SP!!?
I`m hope I`m wrong I really do and my pea-sized brain goes back to reading comic books

So that is:
RIO on a multiple of 5,
AMS on 4
SSW on 3.5
and
SLP on, wait for it - 8 !!
Oh and er, with 9% growth over the next 10 years discounted by 8% on earnings (net profit) of $68.3mm as base.
I feel an R Kelly moment coming on - NO! not that !!!
Summut about flying.
Well pigs can, apparently according to Wall Street

"Are they honestly suggesting this stock is worth 400p+?"

That equates to £4.32 on a SP of 84p. Depends on what valuation you start with. If we take earnings of $73mm as base year they are assuming growth rate of 9% for the next 10 years with a 7% discount rate and an exit multiple of 6! My view that is fairy land. It is an algo spitting out.
It is also cloud cuckoo when the risk free rate is running at 3% and inflation is near double figures so the ERP must be 8% or 9% at least. Then there is the country risk to factor in.
Discount rate of 15% is nearer the mark and assume growth nearer GDP levels - 5% max even if at all and optimistic given a start base of 73mm.
The market is not assuming any growth rate at all it is pretty much flat if you run the numbers.
That said I think a couple of quid is very realistic and if this gets to 150 soon I will top slice
GLA

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XHnilIvt/
From May 2022 J&M report, I put together some data of supply and demand deficit and correlation with Rh spot averaged from 01/01 and 01/06 data points - the jaws of that crocodile will snap back together! Well, that is what we all want and desire of course!
GLA