Member Info for Quiggers52

Big, Huge respect to the members of this BB; the humanity shown here is admirable, and all in the context of each post members losses most probably, but yet you all display genuine warmth and concern to what appears to be, a troubled soul.
I salute you all (and hope of course the OP is okay)
Q

Kicks in when "due diligence" begins and all those involved are obliged to sign anti - insider trading docs (and that can take months especially at this time of year.)
GLA.

Hah Ha I never said that !!!!! I`m not moaning. Just pointed out that to talk of the next deal when this one is not completed is a bit premature but hey look I`m happy - more than happy... to be wrong!! :)
Great to see IC buy in so fingers crossed!!
Common 30....you can do it.

They have not completed on this one yet!

Capital projects - north - have been on the books for 10 years! How do you propose they grow?
This management is not in the growth business. They are content doing what they have always done and done very well. Growth? Nope. Not gonna happen. No ambition. They are happy with status quo and that`s okay with me.

John
When the cash flow statement turns positive, then that is the time to consider (for me).
I`m not interested in Jam tomorrow.
If it is as gr8 as you claim , then no doubt, there will be plenty of upside....
As of right now, last 7 years according to Trading View show negative FCF.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMFkDvSh/
That is a million miles away from AET.
But I will add to watch list and thanks for the heads-up. Appreciated :)

Spare a thought for CINE LTHs - 50% down to day on RNS which talks of "very significant dilution". I held at one point: 11/8/20 exited a few days later for a quick 14% win but on trifle capital. Was never gonna stick up a lump in there.
I`m happy in AET. The faith is strong. May the Force be with you!
GLA

Looking at a price of 27.3 pence gives a Mcap of £60.18m or $72.75m.
In the admission document, the net assets (pro forma) ie value of equity is $56,853,785. That is a delta of $15.8m
Again, in the admission document, the delta between the opening cash: $37,726,913 and closing cash : $21,906,200 is also (drum roll please...) $15.8m
Coincidence?....hmmm. Interesting though
GLA

So I make it:
Sales/revenue: $[90,268,200 ]
Costs including tax, interest, Dep & Amor.: $54.2mm
Net Profit: $35,983,200
Based on stated break even of $35 bbl (which I`m assuming includes all cash outflows)
$35 * [4,700 (bopd) * 330 (days)= 1,551,000) = $54.2mm
That means Paul used a spot of $58 to arrive at those sales assuming 90% efficiency.
Everything not in [ ] is stated in the presentation.
If the FCF/net profit of $36m is based on av. spot price of $58, then even that FCF number looks on the low side?
GLA

I thought it might be fun to try to put an income statement together. (NB: Paul is estimating FCF of $36m but for simplicity I will assume that number as net profit (I know profit and FCF are not the same of course).
So, assuming an average spot price of $75 and annual production of 1,551,000 (derived from 4700 BOPD * 90% efficiency ie 330 days) gives sales of $116,325,000. If net profit is $36m then that leaves all in costs of $80.3m.
I`m interested to break that down into (a) cost of sale; (b) operating costs including depreciation/amortisation; (c) interest; (d) tax.

Hi Rift - I agree! My name is not Mr Market though!!
AET is a gift is my view. I have made it my number 1 holding. SLP now number 2.
In this for the long term.
Feels to me Paul is on a mission and has a point to prove. He and the team are out of the blocks and up and running.
Momentum will build, but it might need a catalyst to do it.

Either Mr Market is wrong or we are all wrong. We cannot both be right. Markets are both inefficient and efficient but not at the same time.
Lots of conditions precedent to the contracts closing.
Perhaps completion will be a catalyst. The Directors buy -ins don`t appear to have been.
GLA

what is your exit target price if you don`t mind me asking OR leave as is and let the grandkids inherit lol??!

Okay, thanks for that. It clarifies. The point made is "EXPECTED supply vs demand" (forgive the caps - only way to emphasise). One cannot just look at the graph and see the bar increasing, one has to ask was the rate of change higher or lower than "expected".
However, that conjures up a whole new dimension of uncertainty: what is the expected increase? (assuming an increase) and whose expectations?
And where to find that data? Be interesting to look at the monthly chart and map it onto the monthly sales. Have you done this and is there a correlation? I know that is not proof. There is no such thing. But it would be significant.

Maybe I`m just being dumb as f here. ...(would not be the 1st time)
If car sales are UP in China well that means more cars are being produced /sold
= more materials needed (obvs)
= one of the key materials is ...PGMs.
If it were the reverse, I`d be worried. ...
If I`m selling bananas and nobody is coming to my stall to buy them, I aint gonna be placing orders at the banana factory, who in turn ain`t gonna be placing orders at the banana plantation.
What am I missing ???!!!

Nothing wrong with crude! (no pun intended)
KISS. The simpler the better.
All the fancy DCF or NPV in the world mean diddly if one of the assumptions is wrong.
I will go with your logic cada dia y dobles los Dominges :)
GLA

Investor is right.... fair play

Good afternoon
Thank you for your email
We can confirm that as disclosed in the first paragraph, Paul McDade purchased the ordinary shares stated.
Kind regards
Afentra

An error - that they didn`t correct....
Bit doubtful that
but if you say so.

ACN - He is right.
Read the "nature of the transaction"

Today: Gavin Wilson
b. Nature of the transaction Acquisition of Ordinary Shares

Yesterday: Paul McDade
b. Nature of the transaction Conditional award of right to be granted nil cost options

to get some gains - real... not jam tomorrow.
Yesterday 70% up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_L8VmP8JBw