Member Info for Quiggers52

You might well be right but a couple of points:

(1) that is not how this RNS is written. The "INA Transaction" is a defined expression in the RNS: it means BOTH the 4% for Block 3/05 and the 5.33% for Block 3/05A:
`Afentra plc ('Afentra' or the 'Company') is pleased to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Afentra (Angola) Ltd, has signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement ('SPA') with INA - Industrija Nafte, d.d. to acquire a 4% interest in Block 3/05 and a 5.33% interest in Block 3/05A, offshore Angola
(the "INA Transaction")`

“Upon completion of both the Sonangol [20%] and INA transactions [9.33%] , Afentra will have initial 2P Reserves of c.24 million barrels (20 and 4 mmbo respectively) and daily production of c.4,680 bbl/d. (3900 and 780bopd respectively).”

In other words, 3900 for Sonangol and 780 for the INA Transactions - the 4% AND the 5.33%

(2) if you mean $20 bbl/d (low for a 2021 average) then that gives $5.7mm revenue p.a. on production of 780 yes but revenue is not EBITDA!

Agreed: the 9.33% interest generated the EBITDA of 5.3mm.
My question is how did that happen with a production of 780 bbl/d and a presumed OP of $65?
The AET site page - enquiries investor relations - cannot be reached unfortunately

Just going over this RNS:

“4% interest in Block 3/05 and a 5.33% interest in Block 3/05A, offshore Angola (the "INA Transaction")”
[right, so that = 9.33%].

“The asset interests being acquired under the INA Transaction generated an EBITDA of US$ 5.3 million for the year ended 31 December 2021, as extracted from unaudited management information for the year, with EBITDA being defined as "earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation".
[remember that – $5.3m]

“Upon completion of both the Sonangol and INA transactions, Afentra will have initial 2P Reserves of c.24 million barrels (20 and 4 mmbo respectively) and daily production of c.4,680 bbl/d. (3900 and 780bopd respectively).”

[That is a lot but to simplify the last para abbreviated[

"Upon completion of INA transactions, Afentra will have daily production of 780bopd"

Assuming average bbl/d price for 2021 of (say) $65 gives 780 [bopd] * $65 *365 [days] = $18.5mm

AET have a 9.33% interest = $1.72mm [$18.5mm*0.0933]

So how is the EBITDA of $5.3mm arrived at?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oy2PPq1w/
Agreed - shaded area shows last year`s favourable impact in ZAR/USD

I understand that about 85% of RH is for use in cat converters. About 1/4 of (that) supply is provided by recycling - presumably used cars as scrap? So the price of second hand cars is an input into that supply curve.
Liberum look to the Manheim US used vehicle value index:
https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png
The theory (I think) is that as the index rises means second hand car prices are rising - means less scrap cars, means less recycling = rise in spot price of Rh.
Well, I did a little back test using XRHO DB tracker of Rh against that index and the TTM are as follows:
Manheim /Rh
July: (2.6)/(4.8)
Aug: (0.36)/(16)
Sep: 5.3/(10)
Oct: 9.3/(0.04)
Nov: 3.9/(15)
Dec: 1.6/5.09
Jan: 0.04/28.36
Feb: (2.1)/7.1
Mar: (3.3)/(3.8)
Apr: (1.1)/(2.07)
May: 0.7/(12)
June: 1.3)/(10)
From this it appears that Rh pics up a few months after the Manheim index rises. Are any of you guys monitoring this? I mention as Liberum use it as a tool/indicator.

I`m thinking Liberum has a rather high basket price for this quarter of $4,125.
This is how I calculated it.
For 21/22, Q3 we know the actuals.
So I started by multiplying the reported:
basket price for Q3 of $3,327 p/oz. X the reported production (oz.) of 15,840
Multiply them gave me a “Basket 6E Revenue” of: $52,699,680
The Actual Reported 6E revenue was $41,300,000.
The delta (difference) between the two is obviously some sort of cost. And that delta was 78%.
Modelling the same for Q2, the delta was 73%, and in Q1, it was 71%. So fairly consistent across Quarters. For Q4 model then, I took an average – 74%.
Liberum estimates FY 21/22 rev of $166m.
Q1A-Q3 actuals were $108.6m. This implies a Q4 rev of $57.4m
From this, we can work backwards to calculate the Basket 6E Rev for Q4 by using the 74% delta: $57.4m/74% = a Basket 6E Rev for Q4 of $77,567,000.
With production at 18,800 oz that implies a basket price of $4,125.90
Summut disney wurk thar laddie ... that basket seems a bit on the high side!
I will look forward to the published results
What do you guys estimate the basket price to be?

"the $6m sale of Grasvally should both add to the $138m showing at Q3"
**payable as $393,334 x 15 over 3.75 years**

"Brokers Revenue forecasts of $144m for the year"
**Broker Note ("Note") has it at $166m**

"net net for the year approaching £70m"
** I posted on 1/7 estimated earnings of $73m. The Note has it at $94m before tax. I assumed a normalised 5 year average tax rate of 22% which would have aligned very close to that at $73.32m. However, the Note has assumed a 30% tax rate to bring earnings down to just shy of $66m. Adding back depreciation expense of $5.5m gives: $71m. Maintenance capex, I put at £4m. Deducting that, gives Owners` Earnings of $67m or 21 pence per share for a Cash Yield of 26%. **

Bangrak
So your Coal and Gas plays are...?

Hardly unbiased though V.
With numbers, you can see what you want to see.
Example: I see CRL dropped 30% today and some on there are talking "robust report" lol
But I like the sentiment which as you pointed out, moves mountains (and share prices)!

Robust results?
Operating cash flow down 74%
Debt up 122%
Interest expense up 39%
£12.1m wiped off the board.
Still, despite all of that, RoA at 6.5% and RoE at 12% are positive. I like CRL. Hope LTH see a turnaround soon.

You can raise this question at the meeting.
With the benefit of hindsight etc...

Keep an eye on Zhihu Inc .listed on NYSE Ticker: ZH
Hedge Fund, Point 72 Europe bought in at $8.10.
It is now trading at $1.51 which is a 52% discount to its NCAV ps.
One to do some due diligence on whilst we are waiting for Rh to tick up perhaps.
L8rs.

At SLP at £0.80, a "couple of quid more" is £2.80. Assuming shares outstanding does not change. Stock Price: £2.80. Shares Outstanding: 266,130,788
P/E = Stock Price / EPS
If the P/E is 14, you are valuing the EPS at £0.20
P/E = Stock Price/EPS
14.00 = 2.80/0.20
EPS of £0.20 * 266.13 shares outstanding = earnings of only £53.24m
Last years earnings were £100m. Admittedly with a sky high Rh price
(This is not cash -adjusted)
if £53.24m is accurate, I agree that £2.80 looks ripe with a P/E of 14.
Even £2 with a P/E of 8 on earnings of £65m again not cash adjusted in this market looks best case but what do I know lol

gonna keep an eye on the stochastic:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YlhrJCGV/
it is as good a guide as any I have found over the years but each to their own of course.
as always, GLA

weekly chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnhm3bHm/
last time dropped to below 200DMA was 2017 by the looks of that, what an opportunity but "to buy or not to buy" (now) that my friend is the question!

That looks bad...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Gkjm8c3/

Rh falling again, SP dropping sharply
Another buying opportunity for divis if nothing else.
Question is, when...?

I did add back non cash items - depreciation expense of about 4m so that would bring the number down to high 60s not so far from yourself V.

Not profitable before 2019?
EBITDA margin:
`14: 23.72%
`15: 26.37%
`16: 28.09%
`17: 36.24%
`18: 35.37%
SLP has no pricing power. I think that is why the market does not see value. Also, South Africa is high risk.
I have Free Cash Flow per share of 23p on estimated earnings of $73m
GLA

6, it is below 4! And agreed, this is and has been very favourable. It is all about the Rh and that - for the moment - seems to be holding firm.
VW chief last week talking bullish on pipeline and supply chain shortages so that is a positive sign.
GLA