Member Info for Quiggers52

What he said...:)

14,000 Rh today
Anybody good with ZAR/USD ? IIRC last year`s numbers had significant impact. If we get paid in USD but convert to ZAR on the buy side surely what you win on one side you lose on the other and vice versa? But that does not seem to be the case and if I`m honest I've never really understood why.

LOL - very funny Arthur.
Art ader
See what I did there ?!

Yes, but virtually EVERYTHING in this bear market is sub 200-day save for oil and gas!

Agreed
Looks to have held at 13,450?
Possibly.

IIRC the last A/R assumed a Rh price level of $11,000 per oz. I`m sure I read that. Nine months ago it indeed fell to about $11,000. Interestingly when it did so the SP was about 80p ATOW we are at 86.5p.
TBH I`m surprised it is holding as strong as it is when all others save for oil stocks are recognisably much more volatile.
Looking forward to seeing end of year numbers which I estimate to be around $150m rev, $91m EBITDA, $66m net profit or 44% those are numbers to dream of for any other business (Rhodium or not).
Loading up (again) whilst I can !
GLA

Rh makes up 50% revenue on 9% of the oz. production so it is vital.
Pd about 15% revenue on 20% oz prod.

Taking Hedged lower np estimate and adding back depreciation and removing maintenance capex gives est. annual owner earnings of about $73m. That implies intrinsic value of about £2 based on assumed growth of 3% trailing off to 2% over next decade, discount rate of 12% and terminal multiple of 6 - all fairly conservative assumptions I think it is fair to say. All guess work of course.
GLA.

Who told you that? See e.g.: https://sylvaniaplatinum.com/investors-and-media/financial-reports/send/83-annual-report-2021/552-annualreport2021
page 37:
These consolidated financial statements have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS); and page 57:
12. EARNINGS PER SHARE
2021 2020 [cents per share]
Basic earnings per share 36.65 14.62
Diluted earnings per share 35.92 14.26

Here, there are only losses piled upon losses and dilution well, I guess they gave up trying to calculate diluted EPS. To be honest I don`t blame them. (arguing over the arrangement of the deck chairs on RNS Titanic springs to mind.)

3.2 billion shares issued to Venus for 0.0005p and more to come: page 81.
Lots of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
When the dust settles, "The Story" will, like Lazarus, be resurrected - with a new catalyst - and a new wave of investors will ,through FOMO, greed, and the age-old "maybe, ...just maybe" be lured into this again and again and again....it is a legal Ponzi scheme.
Cash ratio less than 1 is not ideal. There`s is at 0.18.
I`m actually impressed with the quality of the report. The discount rate on impairment of TF cash flows for example have increased to 25% to leave a PV 800k loss. Looks like all of the bad news has been captured, bagged and dumped into the ocean.
Then, the "good news" will start again....and onwards, investors, IM just around the corner and pay back time! Meanwhile the dilution increases and on and on and I note diluted EPS is not even attempted to be calculated!

I was taking the cash balance from the last AR. However, if we go from the last Q3 it is $138m which nudges it up to 48p
without adjusting for change in inventory or A/R.
In any event, it is looking good


Cash 100% $138,135,435.00 $138,135,435.00
AR 75% $68,612,119.00 $51,459,089.25
Inventory 50% $3,838,147.00 $1,919,073.50
$191,513,597.75
Total Liabilites $29,630,537.00
$161,883,060.75
Shares 270,524,921
$0.60 48 pence

Ceiling, I agree.
There looks to be a flag/pennant on the weekly chart forming from Aug `21 with support
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ydNZ38vb/
Net current asset value per share at 40 pence (assumes 75% of A/R and 50% of inventory) so that is ultra conservative liquidation value completely ignoring non-current assets.
Assuming 5% growth on a base year of $150m sales using historical 5 year average operating margin of 35% and a discount rate of 10% I get 235p which means the price is 35% of its intrinsic value - these are all assumptions of course; to some, that discount rate will be much too low and maybe even the growth rate is being optimistic. Efficient market? Well I`m assuming one day the market will respond accordingly. Let`s hope so!
GLA

Other than SLP, 28% next is AET (22%) . The rest is split into long term holds and most are underwater and will continue to be so in this bear market which I feel will not improve in the short term. But I`m lucky as I do not have to sell.
Incidentally, my son (who is 9) told me to exit FSLY when we were 20% up. I did not listen. Now we are 95% down lol.
So much for timing the market!!

Exchange rate assumption 14.4 vs 15.3 (YTD) looking good.
RH price of 11,000 per oz looking good. ($15,300 last time I looked)
Discount rate of 15% on the conservative side. (The lower the number, the more valuable the net present value of the asset and vice versa)
Decided to liquidate my BP holding and increase my SLP holding whilst I can at this price. Will keep a 50/50 play in case of more turmoil.
GLA

Thanks Rift. I need to see that presentation and looking forward to doing so.
I expect we all have our own target price and it is always very tricky to know when to exit.
It ought to be fairly easy to plug in those numbers over say a 10 year time horizon with a growth rate factored in discounted back at WACC but I will take the quick and dirty route and assume inflation only growth and 15% discount rate. (the lower the discount rate, the higher the NPV per share)
Ought to be interesting. If any others on here have anything please share and well done to all - it feels like we all will be rewarded (I hit my maximums and was not prepared to risk more than 20% of my portfolio on any one holding). You win some you lose more. Feels like this is a win!

4,000 BOPD - assume that is correct and assuming a BO = USD100 = USD 400,000 per day. Assuming efficiency of 100% on a per annum basis is 400,000 x 356 = $142.4M. Now, I`m not familiar with O&G market so my gut tells me 100% is bonkers so is there a standard "go to" assumption - such as 75% perhaps? That would be 267 (days) * 400k = $106.8M revenue.
Of that amount, what is AET`s split of the revenue- 20%? I`m just trying to get to cash flows for DCF to estimate a back of a fag packet fair valuation and target price. LTH (from back in the Sterling days).

Be interesting to see how this re-rates on a DCF valuation. Discount rates anybody? 15 - 20%% sound about right? It is Angola and O&G after all.

The DIs are cancelled and presumably replaced with new shares and shareholders names go on the shareholders` register, that is what SIM stated in an RNS but I have written to Efi asking for a confirmation. If new co ever gets off the ground then I suppose they will adjust the number accordingly. I purchased 10,000 of SIM - what I was sold was common stock. But what the number will be under the new co, who knows.

SIM tell me I `m not a share holder. I have 10,000 DIs. Even though I have a Contract Note from HL showing the security as ORD not DI. When I asked SIM for my share certs they referred me to HL. When I asked HL they told me foxtrot oscar basically and said it was a service they no longer provided or words to that effect.
Anyone else had a similar experience with HL if you are still holding what proof of ownership do you have (all I have is the aforementioned Contract Note) that is it!

Same (or similar) SP
Then: with revenue of "only" 12.732B and Earnings of 1.00 (2016) and
Now: (5 years later) revenue of 97.5B and earnings of 3.84
These metrics taken from Trading View. Shows how the market works.
Where is the bottom that is the question?!