Member Info for Quiggers52

Could it? Yes.
Will it...?
(Look at the trend.)

A sound (hedged) strategy for a 25% return (twice the NASDAQ average 25 year period) would be to buy in at 300 and sell at 400. 300 is likely to represent the recovery (this climbed to 250 and then fell back to where we are today)
If SP falls from its current 169 then buy at the low and hold until 300.
Either way, you win. 25% is a v good return by anyone's standards.

This is the year chart with daily time:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8XgM57H/

It puts where we are now in perspective. The red line is the nearly 10-year low. I`m finding it hard from this to see how the last week (with all major indices falling sharply) constitutes the start of a bull rally on this stock.
We got to 249 early April but that turned out to be a short-lived bounce and it has been only one way since.
Decision time...hmmm

https://www.tradingview.com/x/VCi4XSyQ/

Supply and demand would push SP higher on open Monday. If that doesnt happen what does that tell us?
Anybody`s guess whether it will maintain of course.

Last time this was at 1.59 was June 2012. It rallied a bit (a lot of stocks did) late in session closing at 168.
Will it hold Friday? Hmm. I`m not convinced this this is the bottom, the recent downward trend from 29 April is clear.

On the 7th there were more.
Pity I cannot screen shot to show you.
More or less the same the other dates it doesnt matter the result was the same. You would think people would have learned not to do this but appears not.
Did you see WW performance before the Transport Select Committee the other day, a masterful performance I thought from a very hostile bunch of amateur would-be businessmen masquerading as MPs. Still at least the Chair had the grace to thank him and wish I'm well at the end.

So what?
Look at what happened: 7/5, 11/5, and 12/5... the exact same thing.
Market opened down following day each time. This is going to be short-term pain for long term gain. Don`t expect any turn arounds soon, from 30/4 this has been a slow downward trend.
But much of the market was red today - look at what happened to CCL, it fell off a cliff.
I will be topping up a few more in a few weeks.

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/1555d832-3a22-4c37-bafe-e7fe97ac55bb

Short answer: No (nothing as I can see is likely to change sentiment. Not yet. Too early)
See this holding in a range as investors weigh up if this is the bottom....
On a positive note, thought I`d see a sell off going into the long week-end as short-term/ day traders off load but the contrary happened and this rallied slightly.

a couple of points off and finished the same (-2.19%) wow shows the resilience of this stock with the doomsters predicting freefall and this into a long Bank Holiday weekend too.
Have to say I`m surprised a little. GL all.

Because by doing so that puts IAG in a no-lose position: if they break through early, WW./the BoD look good; if it takes to 2023 (the words used were "at least 2023") then he/they can say "well I/we told you so".

"burning cash as [sic] £200m per week"
Annualised, that`s £10.4B pa.
Where are you getting that number from?
I see the op loss at EUR 1.8 for Q1 before the furlough kicks in (April) . Assuming things stay exactly the same (which of course they won`t) the loss after tax of EUR 1.68B even if annualised comes to EUR 6.73B or GBP 5.87B about half of your number.
These are good results in the circumstances and at the moment that is reflected in the market - sp is off by less that 2 percentage points atow. Compared with Norwegian Cruises (I discussed that yesterday) this is positively welcoming. That said I expect a fall as the news digests. But nowhere near on the scale that some predict.
Buy in for me. The 2 yr time line investment horizon moves north by a year. I can live with that.

Yesterday, Norwegian Cruises fell 23% when it issued a "going concern" warning. (That is about as bad a public statement as public statements can get imho.)
If the same thing happens to IAG at 25% fall, that still puts it at 1.50.
Forget target prices; they are best guesses at the best of times. I cannot be alone in largely ignoring them. In these circumstances, I find it kind of comical in a way. Look, air travel is not going to disappear. As others have said, IAG may return leaner and stronger, I see the logic. Of course what they return to will be a scarred battle-field. But the plants will grow back, the historical sign will be erected and in time this will rise or go pop. I dont believe it will go pop. So it is a matter of time and being patient and not being greedy waiting for something that might never happen.

It is always silly when people think they are clairvoyant - the SP WILL do this or WILL do that. They always end up looking foolish when it doesnt.
Atow SP up 2.4% from a low of 192. That tells me something cataclysmic has to happen for this to get to 100. It is possible of course. But now that Warren has bailed, and this is rising, I cannot think what that might be.
WW 1-2ing Bojo ala "2-jags" Prescott style maybe...?! GL y`ll

I recall that Brexit (remember that!) oriented, opt-repeated mantra trotted out over-and-over again: "let us not make the perfect the enemy of the good". This SP is cheap as chips. Don`t be greedy. Recovery only has to be marginal to still make a handsome return.
As for brokers...
You are also assuming a future price drop even though this is nearly at a 10-year low (Jan 2013). That means you might miss the boat. Your call.

Well, it hasn't opened down...early days yet of course.
Hard to see what further bad news isn`t factored into market sentiment with this after the Buffett effect and yesterday`s headlines.

Insolvency risk? FTSE 100. £4B market cap. Debt/Equity of 2.1 (not brilliant but hardly risky - AUTO e.g. are 5.5, RELX, at 3)
So no, not on that front.
As for rights issue to raise cash that`s obviously one of the variables that goes into the mix in the next 24-months. I dont know, no-one does. Its possible, of course it is. Will that stop me buying in. No. The upside potential is worth that risk. Even if we assume this only going back to 400 instead of 600, that's still 50% return pa. Irony is that it was WB himself who talked about no-one these days making 20% with big money. And he is of course right. But this isnt big money lol (I can wish) so the rules of engagement (for me) are completely different.

"I like IAG, but not at this price..."

3 months ago, this was at 618.
I (and many others) believe it will be again. 24-month time horizon for me. Not a problem. I don`t need to get fast returns on all stocks. Some you just buy in and forget about them. This is one. I can sit and wait.
Assuming SP returns at that level, and a buy-in @200 that`s an annual return of over 100% pa.
Who knows what will happen, it might not hit that level, it might exceed it. Time will tell. Come back in 2 years and let`s see where we are at then...

This is great news. "WB sells" headlines. SP drops. = Huge Bargain (long). Berkshire`s $55Bn op loss touches on Delta etc .but that`s the tip of the iceberg. He`s been caught out on the wrong side of high risk derivatives contracts plain and simple - this is a diversion tactic and airlines are the fall guy (to quieten his shareholders) for his far more riskier investments which he has been doing for years now (not him - his team of Technical Analyst's, Quants etc...)
Bring it on. I`m hoping the SP tanks because this will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy in big for IAG.

OWLS - good for you! Your 10-yr cumulative 100% speaks for itself - FD of your own funds is working for you! Long may it continue. I`m presuming these are long term positions and not day trading or similar using TA as transaction costs eat into those kinds of gains and profiting quickly off of a swing-low or swing-high isn`t commensurate with those kinds of returns unless you are George Soros shorting sterling lol