Member Info for potnak

I'll eat my hat, if there is any trigger pulled before we have preliminary Tox Study data back. If it is important that we do the study, have been asked to do the study and it adds value. Why would any trigger be pulled before we have some data? The only scenario where a deal could come before is if we dont s

Yes, but Bailiff, by the logic of why it was showing down at the close on Friday, the same logic applies to why it's blue this morning. The share price hasn't changed. Just the perceived direction of travel.

Morning Rebster. Your point is kind of my point. We can only guess what the cash burn is. There is a new trial to pay for, will it cost less to complete. I don't know. But even if the cash burn for FY25 is less than £3.4 million that still leaves the company with a funding dillema going into FY26. We will get an idea of cash burn in the interim results and also an update on 737 around the same time. Both should come around the end of march. If cash burn is constant and nothing comes of 737. I think we will get plans on stretching the cash runway to take us comfortably into 2026. I've been investing on AIM for nearly 20 years. The first and non negotiatiable bit of "research" I used to do when looking into a company was, look when the last raise was. The best way to not lose money on AIM us to not buy too early. LTH should never be a badge of honour. Nobody buys thinking, I'm gonna hold these for 15 years. They just convince themselves after the fact.

Unfortunately, buying now is a punt. One I'm willing to take albeit in small amounts but not those with chuncks of cash waiting. We are where we are and the SP will drift until some sort of certainty comes along. Either funding or a deal.

Personally, I believe all this is to be expected. I don't think we are into "delayed" territory with the tox study timelines. It should come soon. With the lower 16 weeks plus a month timescale, that now puts us firmly in Q3 now. I expected this and stated multiple times last year.

As far as I'm concerned, The SP is low because there are still questions around cash burn. I'm not an accountant but by my calculations, SAR had 1 million cash in the bank in June 24. They raised 3.5 million and got a tax credit of just over a million. That approx £5.5 million as of June 24. If cash burn is the same for 2025 (3. 4 million) then by June we'll have £2million left. Buy the end of the year, that will have reduced significantly. So if nothing comes from the 737 review then we will be cutting very fine, when tox study data lands. Anyone watching this share who did any type of due diligence will see the we could be trying to negotiate a deal worth 100s of millions when we only have cash to keep the lights on for less than a year (from June 25). This is why no one is buying in any volume. They fear more dillution.

It's not always about the science, its mostly about running a business with all the ups and downs that come with it. I'm not concerned yet, however, if we slip into Q4 24,i will be as we'll need to raise.

Personally, I believe all this to be

Hey Bobbler, I remember you asking me, why the negative sentiment, just a couple of months ago. Asked if I were looking for a lower but price? I wonder what has changed?

Yes, blue. I'm in full agreement with you, almost. I do think we could go lower than 20p but I will buy small amounts for the next couple of months. Only disposable income though. The problem for the share price is there isn't any known (to us) milestone that will increase the SP until the to study is done. That means we are at the mercy of the markets until Q3 and if cash burn is in line with 23/24 then even with the last round of fundraising, we'll be down to our last million by the end of the year. If nothing comes from the 737 review. I genuinely belive they will need to raise again before we get news of the tox study. Unless term sheets are already in play, how can you negotiate bigger deals when you only have enough cash to go into Q2 26.

I've been waiting for years for these mm and PH "mates" to buy in, how low do they want it? When will they buy in. I jest, of course but it does get tiresome when they blame anything but the company, chairman, compounds or wider financial landscape. Pick one but in reality it a mixture of all of them but no, it's the Mm's and negative posting.

SOG, no one has to answer when you demand an explanation. It turns posters off. The chances of a phase 1 product getting to market (success) are slim. You know that. And with that, that me done here for a few days. As you said. It's not worth it.

You hit the nail on the head Damion. It's the pivoting and uncertainty. It has killed all the positive sentiment. All we have to go on is what the board tells us and is on record. When they tell you one thing but do another, it breaks the confidence you have in the board. I've taken so much stick on here just for calling it out. I have a long term play here and unless we get a buyout, I'll be here much longer than those LTH that have large holdings. Those want a pound or two or five can take it if we get there. I happen to believe we can get well over a billion valuation after a successful phase 2. I used to think 2 billion but that was with 737. I will stay invested until I think we've gone as far as we can. I very rarely ctitise the board and recently, I think they haven't been given a chance to progress before being criticised. They are a fickle lot the LTH. If they deliver what the said they would in a timely manner, then, that's all I want. A timely manner for me is a licence deal by the end of 2025.

I don't know, said he was going to liquidate his holding and then we saw some sells. Risky but if there is a placing, he'll possibly, be able to buy double the amount back at the time. I certainly havnt ruled out a placing on the summer. The biggest disappointment for me was when the board pivited away from the "non dillutative funding" strategy. I know there were reasons but that is what killed the sentiment here. And that sentiment won't come back until. Investors are protected from dillution.

Yes, Aber but the data was only officially signed off on the 18th Dec. I'm presuming that sign-off is needed before moving forward. I've no idea if they could have got to data sign-off quicker but that's by the by. They've had 5 weeks.

It may seem like it's January the 55th but in reality, the board have had 4, maybe 5 working weeks to plan the tox study. That doesn't seem like a long time to me at least. As far as I know, there isnt anything else that can tell us. That the below.

Tox study start date - Early 2025. Preliminary data back between 5 and 6 months. Early Q3 of all goes to plan.

Review (with CPF) of 737 compound - can't do the review until the compound is officially back in CPF hands. The mystery pharma only gave notice to hand it back and its a 90 day notice. So end of March, minimum.

What else can they do or say? It is what it is. Personally, I dont think a deal will be inked until tox study preliminary data can be shared.

I like to see a balanced board where ideas are floated then discussed but cognitive bias and rigid world views stop that and that's a shame.

My opinion (world view) is that, basing on the pharma industry norms, the probability of failure at this stage is still higher than success. I'm OK with that.

Placings are a worry but also essential to keep going. A £3.4 million loss last year king of indicates that 24/25 will be similar. So the coffers will be emptying fast by the end of the tox study. With the mistakes made around RF, I don't see how the board can risk that happening again so deornding on what happen with the 737 review, they may try and raise between April and summer. It would be nice before the pike on starts if there is a accountant here can analyse the find results and guesstimate amount currently on the bank and cash burn. That's how to to support the board.

I assumed Parker meant they would submit a manuscript to a peer reviewed journal. It doesn't become peer reviewed until someone reviews the manuscript. If it then gets peer reviewed, great. If not, at least they can share the link and tweet about it. I agree, at this time, not sure it's worth it, it's p1a data, nothing much to shout about. Again, I was just stating what's on record as a few here were clinging onto peer review as some sort of milestone.

BJP not BMJ

Parker from the QandA

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Questions:

Question 1:

Once the SDC-1801 trial results have been peer-reviewed, will the report be posted on the Sareum website or will shareholders have to await a formal publication in a journal?

The Clinical Study Report won’t be peer reviewed, it’s put together by the people who run the trial, with the Principal Investigator of the medical monitors and myself (John Reader) signing off on that report. That was done yesterday (18th December). Now that we have all of the data and the Clinical Study Report, we will be putting a manuscript together to submit to a peer reviewed journal and if that's accepted, then that will be published and made available to anyone who can access that journal. I would imagine that we would pay so that it's freely available to the public, which costs a small amount of money, but I think it's probably worth doing. So it will be submitted to a journal and, if accepted, people will be able to read it. The other thing we’ll do is get out to the technical meetings and present the data to the industry at large and, if we can, to anyone who's interested in seeing it on our website. And then I'm sure we will find when that does happen, we’ll make some sort of announcement, either by RNS or some other means. We’re not sure which journal we’d look to publish in, likely the British Journal pharmacology.

Apologies SOG, thought it was TM that said 4 months plus a month.

JR is on record saying 6 months minimum and we've no idea when that starts. My point is Q3 at the minimum for any tox data. Preliminary or not.

I said BMJ because Parker said BMJ. I've no opinion on whether they should publish or not.

I honestly dont believe there is anything to communicate until the study has a start date.

Weird that I'm the positive one but, I think we have all the information available. We should get a tox study started email at some point in the next month or so. Parker indicated that they may inform us when the p1 trail data is published. If they gonwith BMJ, it's 45 days for fast publishing, however, we dont know when or if it has been submitted. Next news will be an update on 737 once the notice period is up. Not expecting much from that, if I'm honest. Then it's a wait until tox study data. JR states 6 months. TM appears to have told SOG 4 months plus a month. Either way, Q3 is where it's at. What else can they say?

Another note on the publishing of the data. If they did use the British Jounal of Pharmacology, then fast publishing looks to be 45 days. Mid to late Feb if the board started the process ASAP.

https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/14765381/publish-with-british-journal-of-pharmacology.html

The data was signed off on the 18th of December. That would have given them no more than 6 working days of 2024. Unlikely they got far so I reckon they've had about 3 weeks of actual work since the data was signed off. Still seems reasonable to me.

The data was signed off on the 18th of December. That would have given the 6 working days of 2024. Unlikely they hit far so I reckon they've had about 3 weeks of actual work since the data was signed off.