Member Info for potnak

Thanks again Billy. I will use this figure. Although trading small amounts with the aim of growing my pot. Like you, I will not be selling my main pot until we are in phase 2 and/or a buyout.

Thanks Billy. I need to update my little spreadsheet to show 150 million then. That should cover all warrants. I haven't traded here for years but the last few weeks has presented an opportunity to trade small amounts. I've added nearly 10k more shares to my pot for the costs of 6 trades. Keeps the boredom at bay too.

I really do hope the tox study starts in May. Even with the bare minimum quoted 16 weeks plus a month. That puts us in Q3. I can't see any phama taking on the risk, especially while the risk and costs sit with Sareum. Even if there are multiple interested parties. We might get a small lift from the publication p1 results and the tox study start but I think the sp will bounce between 10 and 20p until Tox Study data is out. I plan on buying dips and taking profit on spikes until then.

I really do hope the tox study starts in May. Even with the bare minimum quoted 16 weeks plus a month. That puts us in Q3. I can't see any phama taking on the risk, especially while the risk and costs sit with Sareum. Even if there are

There will always be a warrants drag on the SP. It is what it is. I'm not sure how you can accurately forcaat how many warrants are still available to exise. I forcast my own shares against Market Cap with a very simple spreadsheet. You plug in market cap from latest RNS, number of shares in issur and number of shares held. It then gives me my holding on pounds. The thing is for SAR, is I know there are still quite a lot of warrants due to HNWI and the board so I use a forcast shares in issue of 145 million. That should cover all warrants and a placing if needed. It just means, there no surprises and I can be chilled about my holding. The sp can go back to 10p for all I care.

I keep seeing posts about parkers shrewdness and deal making skills but off the top of my head, I can think of any deals he has made at any of the multiple companies he has roles at, in the last 5 years. Not having a go at him. Just not sure why he get held in such high esteem. His biggest achievement so far, at sareum, is keeping the wolves at bay with the RF fiasco and for all we know. It might have been his signature on the contract that let them do it. Parker is the best we can afford right now. We do have a deal maker on board with Michael Owen, he was involved in negotiations to sell kymab to sanofi for 1.4 billion.

I don't particularly think 737 is worthless, it's just the cost to prove the value in combo is probably outweighing the risk. Add the shortened patent life and I think you have the reason why it never progressed. IMO, we got a bigger percentage because this probably is the last this of the dice for 737. If they could extend the patent length then that would be a different story. They did this for 1801 and 2 with the crystalline forms of 1801 patent. This was the mythical "submarine" patent. That also triggered JR to say "soon, the world will know".

Might be lost in translation but it doesn't make sense. It says they have been awarded a patent that involves the development of SRA737. Have they patented a specific combo? Probably worth a bit more digging here.

The value will come if it gets picked up by one of the big pharma news sites such as Endpoints or Fierce pharma. A good introduction on one of those sites would put Sareum onto the radar of international investors.

When pressed at the AGM indicated they may publish in the British Jounal of Pharmacology.

https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/14765381/publish-with-british-journal-of-pharmacology.html

This link says 45 days for fast publishing. Depending on when the q and a answers were put together. We could be half way thought those days. So maybe 2 or 3 weeks, minimum. The manuscript isn't nessesarily going to be peer reviewed though. It's a peer reviewed journal so it just means, it could be. Parker did say this at the AGM too.

Bizzi. SAR can and do regularly go months without an RNS. People get bored and move on. I think you are probably right with 19 to 22p but don't underestimate the ability for the MM's to take this down a few pence, just because they can see a profit.

Seems there is a stand off this morning. Ask is at 22p with a big spread and no one wants to commit to it. Who will blink first? Mm's or traders?

In all likelihood, it'll be balanced between buys and sells. Hope the sp can find a bassline around 20p but think without news, it will drift, as per usual. Not worried but we could defo do with of news if tox study start date.

Personally. I'm more confident because we have a cash runway into 2026. We didn't have that just over a month ago. Can't speak for everyone but IMO the new buyers are generating just enough volume for the Mm's to push the sp higher. Is it sustainable? I dunno. It's welcome though.

Yep, Aber. Little by little is organic, get to a decent market cap before actual news then a lovely spike. Looking at the posts, Seems we have some new buyers too. The SP might retrace a bit if they get bored of waiting. Still think we will need to wait until ex tox study data readout for some serious news. FOMO may build in the summer though.

An onlicence with the option to buy has been mooted a few times in this board. I think this would be the right strategy. It might take a little longer to get up the big bucks but those who would be happy to sell at a pound would have a chance to. Personally, I have always stated that we should at least get some P2 data before selling. It would be the difference between £2 per share and £10+ per share.

You need volume to really move the SP. You will only get volume on major news. The only major news we are expecting is to study data, probably at the back end of this year. Publishing of p1 data might give us a small lift as might the starting of the tox study. 737 is an unknown, we've no cash to develop it so we need a partner and If I was Parker, id keep 737 in my back pocket so all news can be released in one go for maximum impact.

And here are valuation discounts. Even at this stage using the largest discount and the lowest approved valuation gives sareum potential £400 million valuation.

Risk Considerations (Instead of Fixed Discounts) at Each Stage:

* Pre-clinical:

* Very High Risk: Low probability of successfully transitioning to clinical trials and ultimately reaching the market (typically 1-10% overall POS).

* Valuation heavily discounted due to high uncertainty.

* Phase I:

* High Risk: Significant attrition rate due to safety concerns and lack of efficacy in humans (10-20% overall POS).

* Valuation reflects the initial demonstration of safety but still incorporates substantial risk.

* Phase II:

* Moderate to High Risk: Focus on efficacy and dose-ranging; failure rates remain significant (20-40% overall POS).

* Positive data can lead to a substantial increase in valuation due to reduced uncertainty.

* Phase III:

* Lower Risk (relative to earlier phases): Large-scale efficacy and safety trials; higher probability of regulatory submission and approval (60-70% POS to approval).

* Valuation more heavily weighted towards market potential, but risk of failure still exists.

* Regulatory Approval (Pre-registration to Approval):

* Lowest Clinical Risk: High likelihood of approval (90%+).

* Valuation primarily focused on commercial risks (market access, competition) rather than clinical trial success.

Key Takeaway: The "discount" applied at each stage isn't a fixed percentage but rather the impact of the probability of success on the present value of future earnings. Higher risk (earlier) stages have lower probabilities of success, leading to a significantly lower risk-adjusted valuation. The discount rate applied in the NPV calculation also plays a crucial role and is typically higher in earlier, riskier stages.

Just wanted to add some context here. The valuations in posted. Aren't just random as I difnt just ask AI to value Sareum. I did each compound separately, corrected any assumptions that were incorrect. Asked that industry standard valuation techniques were used, NPV, POS, postential market size in the given indications etc.. Then once I had valuations for all three, I asked for combined valuation. Personally, I think it is about right and if the likes of RMM of Thoth were to get their pencil out they'd get the same figures.

I went back to my AI valuations. Ask to esmimate value on all compounds approved

As a UK-based analyst, if SRA737, SDC-1801, and SDC-1802 were all to successfully pass Phase 3 trials and gain regulatory approval in one indication each, the combined speculative value of Sareum's assets could potentially range from £4.443 billion to £11.067 billion.

Important Considerations:

* Hypothetical Success: This valuation is entirely contingent on the assumption of successful Phase 3 trials and regulatory approval, which are significant milestones with no guarantee of success.

* Speculative Peak Sales: The peak sales estimates are still speculative and depend on various factors, including market penetration, pricing, competition, and the specific indications approved.

* Simplified Model: This uses a simplified NPV approach focusing on peak sales. A more detailed analysis would consider launch costs, ongoing marketing expenses, and patent expiry timelines.

* One Indication Each: The valuation assumes success in one indication for each. Success in multiple indications would significantly increase the potential value.

* Sareum's Execution: The actual realized value will also depend on Sareum's ability (or its partners') to successfully commercialize these drugs.

This scenario represents a significant potential upside for Sareum if its drug development programs are successful. However, investors must remember the inherent risks involved in the pharmaceutical industry.