Member Info for potnak

HBD. Imagine a company strategy so fragile that it needs defending by a few random posters on a chat board. The shareholders shouldn't need to defend their investment. That all most are saying here.

The problem here is, because the board give us very little on the way of progress and strategy updates. We end up speculating here and mostly get it wrong. Then we get mad about it.

This time last week. The mood here was more upbeat. 1801 progressing, a seemingly interested advisor, with maybe some light at the end of tunnel. We convince ourselves that the silence is because of an NDA but then a minor LinkedIn post casts doubt on that. We now have visions of TM, sat waiting for someone to sit at his little table to talk, on conjures up visions of speed dating in the backroom if a musty old pub. The post didn't exude confidence and I'm pretty sure the large phamas dont scour linkedin for potential blockbusters. IMO if the compounds are good. Those that could partner will already be aware of TM and how to get on touch with him. So the post has had a negative effect on sentiment. It adds nothing to the message. And attending these events begs the question if what we think about the silence is another red herring and the real reason for the silence is because there is nothing to say yet.

It's a lacklustre message to the pharma, that is indirectly calling the shots here. TM needs to get his elbows out and get on some of the roundtables that happen at these events. Imagine tweeting "having a roundtable with GSK, BMS, LLY, telling the future of TYK2". We don't need price sensitive news. Just confirmation we are at the table.

Warty, no words. I hope all is well.

I have a passing interest in psychology but even with my very limited knowledge. I can see defence mechanisms in place ll over this board. Feeling and pointing out your superiority is a classic symptom of feeling inadequate elsewhere. We ALL do to some extent. Some of us, however, don't put big signposts up telling everyone.

We all know what he meant though, megs. I have no idea of the geology needed in order to drill oil, I have now idea what quality of spodumene is good for lithium production or if emmusified diesel could be the future of shipping. 3 of my largest multi bags. What matters, especially on AIM is if the board can create value with those products.

The 4 billion valuation at p2b, I think? is the reason why I believe, even at this stage of development, £500 million for everything is super cheap. Probably more like £800 million with good tox results. If 1801 goes into P2 and 1802 into P1. The the value goes up with any sign of efficacy.

AI will probably have the same hit rate as actual science when it gets a hold. However, where it be better is the path to failure will be so much quicker. There won't be rNPV and POS to value compounds, there will be an AI checked threshold at preclinical. If passed, the compound will continue. Companies such as SAR may not exist in 5 years, certainly within 10 years. I like tech but in glad im coming to the end of my working life. 5 years to go, possibly much sooner if sar come good.

For me panagene, it a culmination of events in the last 3 or 4 years. The HNWI investments. TM standing down. The pivots from the original plan, getting 737 back and the new CNS indications. We can't fund 737 or any meaningful research into CNS so why do that now? Unless they know they will have funds to progress them

Add to that the near radio silence and it feels very much like Sept 2016 before the pronia deal to licence 737. Add all this together and its either a new grift or as other have pointed out, Sareum are being steered by a third party. My view differs from others here though. I think we'll need ex Tox data to seal the deal and I believe Nov 25 at the earliest for that. If there isn't any sign of a deal by the end of the year and they come for more cash then Parker has to go.

I'm not after pinning the blame on the Board. We all know what we are getting into. My main issue is by pivoting away from the plan several times they denied the shareholders a "win" p1a success, win, p1 b success would have been a win. The pivoting now means we are almost a full year since 1a was completed in clinic. 6 months from the data being signed off and phase 2 may not start for 8 or 9, maybe 12 months. Now as SOG points out, we may have another pivot to CNS indications. We're kind of being asked to trust them with no actual meat on the bones. Platudes like "we may not even have an AGM next year" or "form an orderly queue" aren't enough, IMO.

IMO 100%, it's dillution. The scurge of the AIM market. Yes, companies float on AIM to raise cash but most AIM companies get dependant on that cash and ttreat the shareholders as an ATM. There shareholder don't want to see their investment disappear so they go along with it. I'm not saying Sareum have done this. They have done quite a lot with a relatively small pot of cash but they are reliant on shareholders. I'm convinced that if the threat of future raises were taken away. There would be more liquidity and the SP would be higher. Just look what happened when the HNWI came on board. We knew that there was at least 18 months of runway so more investors were happy to buy and hold. Unfortunately, I can't see that working a second time as the company didn't return any value for those investors. Just dillution and more options for them. With no news, We could well see the likes of 10p again, possibly by late summer.

Maybe the term news vacuum isn't right. We know the time for the tox study. 16 weeks plus time to review and write up the data. JR indicated 6 months minimum. That's what I'm going with. If less, great.

737, could come anytime or not at all. Still a bit to wooly to make any judgement on. Personally, I think we will get something before Q4 but not certain.

The only other news we could get soon is the 1801 manuscript being published on a peer reviewed platform. This doesn't mean if will be peer reviewed. So not sure what lift it could give the SP. Not do much a news vacuum. We're just locked in to the latest news cycle.

All of my posts are speculative, guesswork even but when the board are asked "would they sell" and the answer is along the lines of "if the offer was right" I would hope that the right offer is at the high end of these valuations.

Co-pilot valuations. Interestingly, Co pilot, tool a long time to work this out.

**Scenario 4 (Pre-Clinical/Early Clinical):** **£169.5M - £449.4M**

- **Scenario 6 (Revised Combined Valuation):** **£188.7M - £526.2M**

- **Scenario 7 (Post-Phase 3 Success & Approval):** **£4.443B - £11.067B**

- **Scenario 8 (All Compounds in Phase 2 Trials):** **£678.5M - £1.81B**

If you asked a real broker, with no idea who sareum are to come up with a speculatve valuation. They wouldn't base it on the science. Theyd use potential market size, discounted based on where on the development cycle the compounds are. is RMM still around. I'd be interested to hear his take this. Or accountant who knows basic bio valuation techniques.

Highly speculative valuation from AI, acting as a Broker Analyst. POS has been estimated based on where they are in development stage. I didnt feed it any pos or multiliers. I asked it to find market sizes for the known indications and then for separate reports on each compound. The output is big and explains why it used the POS values and the NPV multipliers.

Interestingly, the FT forecast has sareum at £1.76 in the next 12 months. Only one broker though. This sits nicely in the AI range so who knows.

Based on this valuation. We should be sitting around £1 a share on the minimum valuation. We kind of already know that but I believe, if the threat of future placings were taken away. We wouldn't be far off the minimum valuation.

Chatgpt valuation. Tried to not use any bias in the oromt.

Basic Summary of Valuation Method:

Sareum’s drug pipeline was valued using a risk-adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) method:

Peak Annual Sales were estimated for each compound.

These were multiplied by a simplified NPV multiplier (based on years of exclusivity and discounting).

The result was then multiplied by the Probability of Success (PoS) based on the current development stage.

Finally, the economic share Sareum holds in each asset was applied.

All values were converted from USD to GBP using an exchange rate of 1.25.

📊 Scenario A: "As of Today" Valuation (Early Stage)

Assumes:

SRA737: Pre-Combo Trial (PoS: 15%)

SDC-1801: Post-Phase 1a (PoS: 12%)

SDC-1802: Preclinical (PoS: 5%)

Corrected Combined Range:

Total Valuation Today:£169M – £450M

📈 Scenario B: Future Valuation if All Compounds Succeed & Reach Market

Assumes:

All compounds approved (PoS: 100%), no discounting.

Multiplier: 6

Peak sales in GBP.

Combined Valuation:

Minimum: £4.443B

Midpoint: £7.755B

Maximum: £11.067B

737 is a enigma. We don't know why Sierra could raise funds to continue developing but IMO, 737 wasn't factored in for the GSK deal. They got it by default and let the clock run down. I'm saying there was a conspiracy, just that, they didn't know what to do with it. The mystery pharma that came next probably had the same trouble in raising funds to continue development into combo trials. Massive hurdles for cash strapped Sareum but if it could be pushed into P2 combo trials. The just using industry standard valuations, with potential market size, You are looking at a possible £800 million valuation. Just for 737. Lots of hoops and hurdles to get over and with no guarantees of success. 1801 should be worth £400 millions of it gets into P2. If all goes well, I would think 500 million is the minimum the board would be seeking. We need financial stability and to be self funded to get there.

I usually have low expectations when it comes to Sareum updates. I honestly believe we never get the full story and because of the lack of funds, most decisions are knee jerk firefighting. I also believe that most here wouldn't want to know how many times Sareum may have been close to going under. The RF debacle was pretty close, I would imagine.

We are in a position where everything in the "pipeline" needs cash to progress and it isn't great for generating interest in further investment. We're on a knife edge, as per usual. Funded to the end of the tox study. Then, who knows?

However, having said that I have to agree with PC. The silence is very reminiscent of the period before the pronai deal for 737. I've done several AI valuations for Sareum, across different LLM's and they all come out similar. Using industry standard methods. Then if 737 finds a home and 1801 get successful tox study data. Then the valuation are between £300 and 800 million. Are we guaranteed that? no. But it's why we are here.