Member Info for potnak

Yes, I am being negative, I don't believe the 2 billion valuation posts either 🙄. Tedious, Bailiff.

The market yesterday closed under 17p, red. Anything over 17 is going to be blue this morning. If no RNS at 11am today. There is a good chance, we will close red but the SP will remain unchanged from yesterday. Smoke and mirrors.

It's not a real blue though. Just that we closed red yesterday. :-)

The SKIL announcement a couple of weeks ago makes me think that Sareum will go down the JV route with VC cash.. Business as usual under the SAR banner until success becomes "assured". Spinning up SKIL compounds will build a bigger pipeline and if funded, the time to clinic and licence deals should get shorter. I have stated many times that if Sareum can get compounds to the end of a successful phase 2. The company valuation could be 2 billion. A bigger pipeline could mean we get there quicker. No more placings and operating cash paid by VC should see the MC rise with each milestone reached.

I sort of agree with all that, Shepster. But in reality, it's all about expectation. For example, some here are still pinning news on the Tox study, 16 weeks timescale for bees. In reality, it will be 6 months. I know TM or Parker was quoted as saying, 16 weeks plus a month but I remember JR saying 6 months minimum. JR is pure science in all this. He will know how to set expectations and work to the time frames where as TM & SP need to keep the shareholders on side. I'm going for a Dec data readout. Probably just in time for the AGM. Anything before that is a bonus. If course that will push any deals until the data is available too. Spinning up compounds from SKIL suggests business as usual from Sareum at least until they have some preclinical data to show potential partners. To put this into context. 1802 has been around for years and we still haven't finished the preclinical work or announced which indications it will target. IMO, they will be hoping the upfront on 1801 will pay for any further developments of the other compounds and I think there is probably some confidence that this funding will be available when the time comes.

The only sticking point for me is 1801. It is now 10 months since we got the RNS about encouraging data from the p1 trial and personally, I dont fully believe the reasons as to why it has taken this long to spin up the tox study. If I were to make a wild guess, Id say, we aren't the direct decision makers here and the Tox study is a line in the sand. I think there may be deal on the table but if the tox study is announce then it's off the table until we have data. If I were negotiating, that's how I'd do it. But it can't last forever. Something has to give in the next couple of weeks. If not the AGM will be lively.

The 100k buy is mine. I desperately want to be in SOGs "truly invested" gang. The first offer I got at 8 am was 17.4p so the mm's did try to move up. I expect I could've got in lower today but I'm out so took the plunge early.

The HNWI were given new warrants were re calculated at the lower prices for each fund raise. They should have a few million each, they also may have sold into the hype when they first invested. I wouldn't sell at a pound but there are a few here with millions of shares bought at today's price or lower. A pound would see them make millions in profit. I would blame anyone who did that. For me, my pot only becomes life changing around £3.

I will be buying more here, a bigger buy than my usual but that will be my last purchase (I've said that before) ha ha.

A lot here want an imminent buyout, we all do, but IMO, yesterday's RNS signals that Sareum will be around long enough to prove some value from the SKIL platform. How long is that. I dunno but at least in mice. With translational studies done. Like I said, I welcome the move. Those that disagree, do so because they want out now.

Yes, leggster, this.

Yesterday's news is welcome but it doesn't shorten time to a buyout. It lengthens it. It looks a strategic play to give the team something to do while 1801 goes through trials. I reckon 50p to a pound on news of a licence. Anyone with a very large holding can sell at a point from there and make a huge profit. I happen to think we can get to the £500 million mark but it will take a while. Still going for 2 billion at the end of phase 2. Caveats are everything still in play and showing efficacy.

A JV at this point could make good business sense. Would depend on terms but id give up some future revenues as royalties if it meant we were funded with no more placements.

So Christmas 2026, then SOG? That's 18 month or so. I agree BTW. Will need a placing to get there, if we dont license 1801 in time.

I will be (probably) buying a big chunk in the next week or do but I'm under no illusion that I will see a big return until the end of the year or more and maintain that yesterday's RNS was a precursor to something different.

BAU - we carry on as usual. The MC rises in line with licence terms and milestones

Change of direction - JV, partial buyout but SAR still exists

Contingency - a bigger pipeline. Allows to carry on in the event of a failure.

Looking at my post again. There is a third more plausible option. It's business as usual.

From the Sareum website.

Our ultimate goal is to generate revenue by licensing our innovative drug development programmes to pharmaceutical partners, allowing us to bring these therapies to market and improve patient outcomes.

A bigger pipeline means more potential licences.

Now, not mia!

Aber, 1801 came out if SKIL more than 10 years ago and upto Mia, we only have p1 done. Without a funded project to fast track. Anything from SKIL now, will have little value for at least 5 years. I'm not sowing any doubt. Just there is more to this than we have been told. It's either a change in direction or contingency.

Other than ricey, I dont think I saw anything negative yesterday. Turning it into an us and them thing is typical on this board. The RNS was unusual, on the face it, it didn't say much so why release it? The SKIL platform isn't unique, it may have done value but that will only be validated through 1801 & 2. From a shareholder value point of view, it has little value. Fkt, and the TYK2 came from skil, both were discovered over 10 years ago, we've yet to get further than p1 in those 10 + years. The RNS yesterday won't add value unless we get context why now? Why not 1 year ago 3, 5? I welcome this new development for a few reasons. A bigger pipeline should mean a bigger valuation. A bigger pipeline can protect the shareholders from failure. Litterally something the board is on record saying. But for value, we will to develop the new compounds and get them into at least ore clinical, maybe even P1. We all know how long and how much that can cost. Without funding, all this is is Tim tweaking the chemicals.

IMO, we are now looking at 2026 for a deal. So much for the last AGM remark! Yesterday's RNS is a pointer to something else, a change in direction, a poker call or a cynical way to give the illusion that the board are regularly informing the shareholders.

Without context, all we can do is read between the lines.

Mobius "The Company is assessing the potential next steps for these compounds, including whether to progress one or more into preclinical development"

Why include this paragraph if there is nothing to do? I'd welcome Sareum going down this road. Especially if the funding was non dillutative. A bigger pipeline means a bigger valuation.

I'm not cynical just not convinced we are being told the real reasons. Just like when 737 came back. They said one of the reasons was to protect against binary outcomes in other compounds. And as for placings. We have 1801 in trials,1802 almost ready to announce indications, 737 and now CNS indications. We all know there isn't enough cash to do everything. We will need funding. I'm hoping a JV rather than shareholders taking on the burden.

I don't think folkscare moaning. There is, obviously more to this than what we've been told. Feels like we are bring lined up for another pivot or something. Maybe a JV to build a bigger more valuable pipeline. Thoth always used to say that Sareum could become a pharma in their own right. Tim and the board have previously indicated that compounds could be acquired. With Q4 official for tox study data. Were probably looking at 2026 for deals on 1801 psoriasis. So why not look to expand the pipeline? Only problem is funding.

The Dexamethasone thing was always a bit of a red herring. Dexamethasone was Standard of care. It just meant that was the best we had to compare it against. It's an £8 a dose steroid and it saved lives by calming the cytokine storm. Yes, 1801 was better but was years away from being a treatment, even if fast tracked.

The list of deals the board provided for the £800 million valuations were all end of phase 2 and phase 3 compounds. We're not there yet.

We were on the midst of the Covid casino. AIM was flying. Hindsight now but we should've known it wouldn't last. We are undervalued right now. Should be sitting around a pound but too many AIM punters got burned and those that are still around know, that nothing goes up in a staight line. Unless the share is suspended, you can always get and make a profit.

For avoidance of doubt. For a buyout, If all OK. I think the minimum we could expect is £500 million. Or approx £3 to £3.50 a share. Got to ace the tox study and get 737 moving for that though. For a licence, Id be happy to go all the way to end if phase 2. Still think we could get into the billions if 1801 was ready for phase 3 with 1802 following. 2028, even if all goes well. For balance. There is still plenty that can go wrong.

Yes, warty. I think there is value in the compound as they are but we'd get less than a pound if an offer was made right now.

The tox study will add a little value but only because it reduces risk. Realistically, we need phase 2 data, from actual psoriasis patients before this value can realy start to be realised.

Someone will probably pipe up with a comment along the lines of "deals are made at p1 all the time" yes, some are but if that was going to happen, it would have happened before now. The buyers obviously need more data.

There has been a strategic decision made by the board, that they hope will deliver significant shareholder value. I happen to believe a 1b or 2a would have delivered some shareholder value quicker. But I am behind the board on the strategy they've taken. I think a lot here think Sareum should have a higher market cap that we currently sit at. The truth is a £135 million MC would still only be £1 a share. With what we have so far. I don't believe sar warrant that sort of valuation. We might get to a £1 on good tox news, a licence and starting P2 trials.

For me, it is key we get the tox trials done this year or we face another placing. Like Aber, I'm not really sure why it's taking so long to get some progress.