Member Info for potnak

Hard to speculate on 737 because without funds to progress. There isn't much value. They told us one reason for taking it. Was to protect against binary outcomes with other compounds. I'm still of the opinion that 737 could be worth 800 million, once in a phase 2 combo trial. Getting it there is the hard bit. Sareum can't afford it so it either sits on a shelf until they can or there is some sort if deal made, on licence or JV. My money is still on a JV and Sareum becomes

SAREUM, a (insert your pharma of choice here) company . We give up a percentage in return for a lump sum and retain all of our shares.

1801 news or lack of is both intriguing and worrying. I said last week. To start the study in May must mean the lab is booked, possibly on some sort of retainer so the board must know the dates. Not telling us could be for any number of reasons. I've given up thinking of all the combinations.

I am off to the Lakes next week though. A high percentage of price sensitive RNS are released when I go on holiday. It would be nice to get good news this week though.

Hi celtic, yes, I believe anything under 500 million is low ball. And we'd that valuation if we waited for trials to progress. 737 could be be valued at 800 million once in a p2 combo. So we wouldn't be far off 500 million with 737 alone. To get there we just have hope the science is good. I don't have the blind faith that some here do but when it comes to pharma deals

The deal is the deal.

Well, to be fair. £14.50 a share is approx 2.2 billion MC. That figure is achievable with a successful phase 2 and 737 progressing but not right now. 18 months min or most likely 2 or 3 years away. Top end valuations right now are upto 750 million, 850 after tox. Mid valuations 3 to 500 million. It all depends on what the board thinks a "sensible offer" is. I would hope after all the time and effort. They would entertain anything less than 500 million. Just wait for the studies and raise to P2 if needed.

Get past the dreaded Friday afternoon bad news slot today and I think we could get some sort of positive news next week or the week after.

The tox study could still start in May. My point is, the lab must already be booked in for a 16 week study and possibly paid for. So the board must know the start date. I said at the time of the IM meet, that I didn't fully believe what JR was saying about the compound needing to be dirty. Not the science behind it, I believe that. It was the timing, like it was a supprise addition to this study. This whole thing since p1 started feels like making it up as we go along.

Yep, I'm not even expecting the data and tox news to have that much impact just that it will bring confidence that we are actually moving forwards. If released seperatly. They could have cumulative effect on the sp.

Even for SAR, this is strange. They've told us to study expected to start in May. There us no way that the lab isn't already booked, animals ready etc.. We can only assume they are waiting for something before they tell us the trial has started. Compound delivery, maybe but you'd expect this yo be hand in plenty of time. Last minutes issues, with trial design? Again maybe, but you'd expect all things related to the study to be in place before they tell us, it is expected to start. I defend the board a lot regarding news flow because, most of the time, there is nothing to tell. However, this time, there is. They aren't big pieces of the puzzle but, the publishing of p1 data and tox study start date could give the shareholders a little confidence that all is well.

Half way through the month and 2nd quarter today and baring in mind, the original plan for tox study was early in the new year, this feels excessive to say the least. We may just get an RNS saying the tox study started with no fanfare which would be disappointing but adequate enough to put the brakes on the SP rolling further back.

A final thought. In the weeks before the Pronai 737 deal, there was complete radio silence too. So who knows?

Thr SETSqx suction (auction uncrossings) times are 8:00 am, 9:00 am, 11:00 am, 2:00 pm, and 4:35 pm. The London Stock Exchange's SETSqx service uses these auction times to trade securities that are less liquid than those traded on SETS,

There is an auction at 2pm on SETSqx. You can sometimes get NT when there is an auction.

TBH, I wouldn't care. The market would set the share price and if SAR were funded, with no risk of placings and with active compounds in progress. The share price should settle a more realistic levels. At the stage we are at now, we should be sat around a pound. 1801 and 737 in trials. £3, possibly more.

If we go into tox studies with no indication why it took so long to progress. I feel we will sit at this level until q4 this year and it will be unbearable here. Ha ha.

Thanks for this Leggster. I used your post in AI asked to summerise. Most were p1/P2 with some preclinical. This is why I wouldn't bits for any offer under £500 million. If we were funded and all programmes in play, we should be sitting around £500 million in a year's time anyway.

Novartis/IFM: Option agreement in 2019, acquired after programs entered clinical development. Up to $1.565 billion total (upfront likely separate option fees).

* Takeda/Maverick: Option exercised. $525 million upfront, up to $325 million milestones.

* Takeda/GammaDelta: Option exercised. Upfront and milestones not fully disclosed.

* AbbVie/Mitokinin: Option exercised. $110 million upfront, up to $545 million milestones.

* Gilead/CymaBay: Announced Feb 2025, not yet closed. $4.3 billion upfront.

Please note that for some deals, the exact upfront payments at the time of the initial option agreement were not always publicly disclosed. The figures provided are generally those announced at the time the option was exercised and the full acquisition was agreed upon.

I'd agree with most of that but the last RNS states, tox study expected to commence in May. These are live animals in a lab with all the relevant personnel etc. If they expect to commence in may, I've no doubt the start date is already booked in. Maybe the start doesn't need an RNS or maybe, they are waiting on the delivery of the compound or they are waiting to issue the RNS at the very last minute. The p1 in humans seemed more straight forward than this. It's been over 10 months since the end of p1, 6 months since we got the data signed off. Even by SAR pace, this would judge as slow. If the tox study starts, we will never know why it took as long as it did. But personally think, it because someone else is driving this.

I'm starting to think that way too but trying not too. Seen too many letdown RNS from Sareum to dream. Ha ha. Thing is I was hoot waiting until 2026 but Mia I'm chrcking god an RNS every morning.

Realistically, legster. When speculating, we have to go with what the company tells us and they keep saying licencing out the compounds. This will only happen after the tox study is complete and we have early data, at the very least. Q4 minimum but possibly into 2026. Having said that there appears to be a juxtaposition with the snippets of information we have. Company saying on licence, spinning up compounds from SKIL seems to back up the longer term stragegy but then we have Tim stepping down, and delays that haven't been fully explained. Add minimal cash raises and you have a pointer to an earlier than 2026 resolution. A JV now, that replaces most of the board, would make good business sense, especially if the option to sell all is there too. Sareum would continue until dome fort if success is assured.

Even though I've argued against this option. I now dont think we can rule out an early buyout. This would explain the delays to the tox study. Where the buyer would want to run their own tox study. But at what price? If 737 was to be ready for a combo trial. With an identified pharma. I personally think that 737's total value is is anything between £400 to 800 million. With 1801, Probably worth around £100 to 400 million.

The top end of the AI valuations I did was £750 million for everything. If either 737 or 1801 or both were to be licenced then the price starts to go up quickly and suddenly, £750 million doesnt seem to be that expensive.

My brain says licence in 2026 but my gut says JV or TO but we'd have to give up some value. Personally, I'd vote against anything less than £500 million.

We will know soon enough, which way this will go.

I had 2 complete new kichens since I first bought into SAR.

The AGM statement said "These studies, expected to conclude by mid-2025"

to conclude by mf 2025, they really should have started by the end of Feb. We are now almost half way through Q2. If we are waiting on the new batch of "dirty" compound, why is it taking longer than they thought? This feels like it is a pause in progress. Add to this, Tim standing down with no replacement and Trial data not published yet. And it all feels like we're in a holding phase whilst something else is worked out. This might be the fork in the road.

I have to admit, the no news on tox study start feels weird. It does feel like a deliberate delay but for what reason? It's more than 10 months since the end of phase 1. I'm starting to feel like the data publication and tox study start is a commitment to progress as SAR but there is and window of opportunity the do a deal before they commit to that. I'm happy to wait but there is something we don't know.

They get away with because AIM is prescribed under the regulated rules. Or something like that so guidelines. I guess if a broker is forward selling then no one actually owns the shares until they are sold on.

SAR are traded on the SETSqx platform. A mixture of direct quotes and auctions. Not enough volume today to do anything. The 4:35 auction will balance the books. It doesn't really matter, red or blue. Without news, the open tomorrow will be the opposite. That's what usually happens.

Ah, yes. How ironic. 🙄